1. Technical Task Update FY16-17
Presentation to the NETAC Policy and Technical Committees
May 3, 2017
Sue Kemball-Cook, Jeremiah Johnson, John Grant and Greg Yarwood

2. Today’s Presentation Update on FY16-17 Technical Tasks
Task 1: Emission Reduction Projects
Task 2: High Ozone Day Analysis
Task 3: Photochemical Modeling
Content slide

3. Task 1: TERP Emissions Reduction Projects
May 20, 2016 NETAC Meeting
NETAC committee members requested to identify people responsible for fleets of vehicles/equipment that may be eligible for TERP emissions reduction funding
Summer 2016
ETCOG followed up with potential applicants and provided information on TERP and upcoming TCEQ workshop in Northeast Texas
Fall 2016
TERP ERIG Program opened for applications
TCEQ held a TERP grant application workshop in Longview
Spring 2017
ETCOG and Ramboll Environ followed up with workshop attendees on TERP application status
Based on responses received, a total of 13 project applications were under consideration by three individuals
Fall 2017
TCEQ releases TERP grant award information
Ramboll Environ reports on Northeast Texas TERP participation and effectiveness of outreach efforts

4. Task 1: TERP Emissions Reduction Projects
TERP Programs Now Accepting Applications
Rebate Grants Program
Due May 26, 2017 (1st come, 1st served)
Texas Natural Gas Vehicle Grant Program

5. Task 2: High Ozone Day Analysis
2016 high ozone day analysis review complete
2017 high ozone day analysis will be completed by November 15, 2017

6. Task 3: Photochemical Modeling
Photochemical model is a tool for air quality planning
Control strategy evaluation, attainment demonstration
EPA attainment demonstration modeling method uses base year and future year together to project future year ozone design values
NETAC FY16-17 modeling used TCEQ episodes for 2012 base year, 2017 future year
Model performance evaluation/improvement efforts for 2012 base case modeling
2017 future year modeling
Based on projected emission inventory close to current year; most relevant available episode for Northeast Texas air quality planning
Today’s talk is an update on FY16-17 modeling efforts – final results will be reported at fall/winter NETAC meeting and in Task 3 final report

7. Outline of FY16-17 Ozone Modeling
June 2012 episode – model improvement
Model overestimated ozone
Efforts focused on weather inputs to CAMx
In July 2016, TCEQ expanded episode to May-September 2012
Additional high ozone days in Northeast Texas
Evaluation of full episode for Northeast Texas
Applied new model evaluation techniques
In December 2016, TCEQ updated their model and released 2017 future year modeling
Source apportionment modeling for Northeast Texas for 2017
June 1, are the only days with MDA8>70 ppb in Northeast Texas during the June episode.
Full ozone season episode picks up 8 additional days
June
Episode

8. Evaluation of Modeled Local Ozone Increment
How well does the model simulate a local area’s contribution to ozone?
Directly relevant to Northeast Texas’ use of photochemical modeling
Evaluation technique requires dense monitoring network – applied to Dallas Fort Worth

9. 2017 CAMx Source Apportionment Results
2017 Projected Design Values
Projected (actual 2016) design values
Longview 66 ppb (66 ppb)
Tyler 64 ppb (65 ppb)
Karnack 65 ppb (62 ppb)
Attainment of the 70 ppb NAAQS projected for all of the 5-County Area

10. Contribution to 2017 Design Values from 5-County Area Emissions
EGU Contribution
Onroad Contribution
Oil and Gas Contribution
EGUs make largest contribution
Signature of I-20, urban areas visible in onroad contribution
O&G pattern corresponds to well distribution, but effect of nearby areas of intensive O&G production (LA, Panola County) not shown here

11. Impact of Haynesville Shale on Northeast Texas Design Values
Hayneville Shale Region O&G Contribution to 2017 Projected Design Values
Haynesville region O&G contribution includes O&G emissions contribution to ozone from the 5-County area and all other counties defined by the Texas Railroad Commission to have production from the Hayesville Shale formation.
Haynesville region O&G emissions contribution to NETAC design values
Karnack 4.9 ppb
Longview 3.5 ppb
Tyler 2.2 ppb

12. Ongoing Work
Complete model performance evaluation/improvement efforts for 2012 base case
Evaluate sensitivity of 2017 source apportionment results to weather inputs
Complete analysis of source apportionment results
Summarize FY16-17 efforts in report due November 15, 2017

13. END
PREPARED UNDER A GRANT FROM THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
This presentation was financed through grants from the State of Texas through the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The content, findings, opinions and conclusions are the work of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent findings, opinions or conclusions of the TCEQ.
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