1. Adaptation or mitigation, Oil/Gas and Climate Research in Norway
IGBP Symposium 24th May 2012
Professor Oluf Langhelle

2. Outline … The dilemma: Oil/Gas or Climate Change? Some definitions
Briefly about Climate Research in Norway
Norwegian Climate Politics
Norwegian Climate Policy
Justifications of Oil/Gas from a mitigation and sustainable development perspective
Future dilemmas and implications for research

3. The dilemmas and core political issues …
Can Oil/Gas activities be reconciled with ambitious climate change policies and targets?
Should more natural gas be utilized domestically?
Should Lofoten/Vesterålen and the Barents Sea be opened up for oil and gas exploration?

4. GHG emissions by source 2011. Mill. tons CO2-equivalents
GHG emissions by source 2011*. Mill. tons CO2-equivalents. Change in percent * and *
2011
Change in percent
Change in percent
Total
52,7
5,2
2,3
Oil and gas1
13,4
73,5
-2,6
Industry
11,9
-37,4
-1,6
Electricity prod.
2,1
 557,8
-8,6
Road transport
10,1
29,5
-0,4
Other transport (Aviation, sea, fishing etc.)
7,2
27,1
0,0
Agriculture
4,2
-5,9
-1,0
Other
2,4
13,6
1 Includes both offshore and onshore
Source: SSB, Klima- og forurensningsdirektoratet.

5. GHG emissions without new measures…
Approx % increase towards 2020 …

6. Climate research in Norway …

7. Some definitions …
Mitigation: An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001).
Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2001).

8. Status, Programme objectives NORKLIMA
Figur NORKLIMAs portefølje fordelt på delmål. Tall i mill. kroner.
Delmål:
1) To improve understanding of the climate system and its variability, and to
quantify uncertainty.
2) To improve knowledge of climate change and its impacts on buildings,
3) To improve knowledge of climate change and its impacts on natural and cultivated
ecosystems and natural resource-based industries.
4) To improve knowledge of the impacts of climate change on society and how
adaptive capacity can be strengthened.
The following scientific objective has been added:
5) To improve knowledge of the links between emission trends and the
development of society, and of international cooperation to mitigate climate
change. 6
1) To improve understanding of the climate system and its variability, and to quantify uncertainty.
2) To improve knowledge of climate change and its impacts on buildings
3) To improve knowledge of climate change and its impacts on natural and cultivated ecosystems and natural resource-based industries.
4) To improve knowledge of the impacts of climate change on society and how adaptive capacity can be strengthened.
The following scientific objective has been added:
5) To improve knowledge of the links between emission trends and the development of society, and of international cooperation to mitigate climate change (2008).
6) Climate Policy measures and politics (2010)

9. Division for Energy, Resources and the Environment: Funding by Ministry and Research programmes

10. CCS: Carbon Capture and Storage …
Source:

11. REDD – 2008 Bali
REDD: “Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and (forest) Degradation (in Developing Countries)”.

12. Climate politics and policies

13. Norwegian climate targets and measures …
1989: Report to Parliament (St.meld. 46, follow-up of WCED Our Common Future). Parliament sets the target of stabilizing GHG emissions by the year 2000)
1991: CO2-tax introduced
1992: Norway plays an active role in the negotiations of the UNFCCC
: Norway awaits the outcome of the climate negotiations within UNFCCC
1994: Stabilization target abandoned
1997: Norway is allowed to increase GHG emissions with 1 % from 1990 level in the period , the Kyoto mechanisms can be used as a supplement to domestic action
1997: Voluntary agreement with the aluminum industry, and later in 2004 with the process industry
1999: 3 TWh wind power target by 2010 adopted by Parliament
2005: A national quota system adopted for industry, enlarged in 2008 covering 40 % of Norwegian emissions
2007: REDD Initiative Bali
2008: Climate compromise in Parliament, with new targets
2010: Klimakur 2020 released by Directorate of Climate and polution
: GHG emissions increase and are expected to increase with approximately % above 1990 level towards 2020

14. Kyoto targets for selected countries
USA
- 7 %
Norway
+ 1 %
Australia
+ 8 %
Japan
- 6 %
Canada EU
- 8 %
Iceland
+ 10 %
Russia

15. Norway’s approach … Norway is a small country
The problem of climate change must be solved at the international level
But Norway should be a forerunner in climate policies
The framework for climate policies: Sustainable development
The problem: Who and where are the emission reductions to be taken?

16. Norway’s (negotiating) position: Norway is a special country!
The energy structure: Almost 100 % of electricity covered by hydropower
Energy intensive industry: A large process industry based on cheap electricity
The transport sector: A long, stretched country with decentralized settlement
The oil and gas sector: Supplies Europe with energy and an alternative to coal
For those reasons, national mitigation measures are more expensive than in many other countries

17. Political cleavages on energy and environmental issues …
RV – SV – V – Krf – Sp – AP – H – FrP
National or international mitigation?

18. The CDM limitation: Article 17
(d) The acquisition of emission reduction units shall be supplemental to domestic actions for the purposes of meeting commitments under Article 3.

19. Policy … domestic vs international GHG emissions
Three types of arguments:
Consequentialist arguments – what are the net effects of certain actions?
Cost-effectiveness – what are the costs of different measures?
Justice – what is a just distribution of global emissions?

20. Why Norway should increase its emissions!
Consequentialist arguments:
Increased domestic consumption of oil for heating would increase national emissions, but reduce global emissions by substituting coal in Europe.
Most of the increase in Norwegian GHG emissions will come from the oil and gas sector, but this gas is exported to Europe, making it possible for them to reduce their emissions by fuel switching (from coal to gas) as in the United Kingdom.
(Lunde and Roland, ECON, Dagbladet, 8-9 August 1997).

21. Why Norway can increase its emissions!
Cost-efficiency – no need to give up unnecessary much welfare in other areas to reach environmental policy targets (White Paper No. 34, ).
… climate change policies should give a large weight to global cost-efficiency. Measures in developing countries can give triple effect … a larger climate effect per NOK, and a larger effect on the local environment, it can give a substantial development effect (White Paper No. 34, ).

22. Why Norway should reduce its emissions!
Contraction and convergence.
Reach an international agreement on an acceptable level of CO2
By a given year
Calculate a schedule
Share the right to emit carbon equally among the world’s population, i.e. on a per-capita basis.

23. Norway and the Kyoto target …
Prior measures
Reductions from the quota system
Uptake in forests
Buying of quotas internationally
GHG emissions in Norway

24. Current policy targets …
Over-fulfill the Kyoto target by 10%
30% GHG reduction of global emissions by 2020 compared with 1990 emissions (40% with an international agreement)
Carbon neutral by 2050 (2030 with an international agreement)

25. New measures 2012 …
A climate, energy and technology fund (30 billion NOK 2013, 50 billion NOK by 2020)
Increased carbon tax for the petroleum sector
More renewable energy and substitution of fossil fuels
Electrification offshore
Buildings
More public transport
Electrification of transport
Bio gas

26. The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation 2011

27. Too much fossil fuels?
”… Who should close the tap for which fosssil fuels?” (Ellen Hambro, Stavanger Aftenblad, 2 october 2011)

28. Thank you for your attention!