1. Impacts of the Christchurch earthquakes on regional tourism activity
Dr. Caroline Orchiston
Assoc. Prof. John Vargo
Dr. Erica Seville

2. Tourism and natural disasters
Infrastructural damage
Reduced access
Temporary business closures
Media
Travel advice
Perceptions
Fear/anxiety
Cancellations
Change itineraries
Damage to reputation
Response
Funding
Rebuild timing
Disaster
External forces
Tourist/Operator
Recovery
I just put this together today – I want it to summarise broadly how vulnerable tourism is to natural disasters, to set the context for the discussion

4. Seasonally adjusted guest nights
Canterbury international dropped 8% after Sept, then another 33% after Feb.
Source: MED Commercial Accommodation Monitor data

5. Tourism sector survey
Project initiated in 2011 – building on ResOrgs work
Aims
Direct/indirect impacts on tourism businesses
Insurance and staffing issues
Preparedness and resilience
Tourism operators defined as:
Accommodation
Activity/attraction
Visitor transport
This work was designed to gather data to contribute an evidence-base for policy and industry recommendations. Because you need good data to back up assumptions, anecdotes and observations about the industry.

6. Method Two postal surveys sent in April 2012
‘Impact Zone’ – 500 surveys (46% response)
‘Rest of Canterbury’ – 220 surveys (31% response)
These areas were defined using Modified Mercalli intensity ‘felt reports’ (GeoNet data)

8. Impact zone
Rest of Canterbury

9. Business type
Multi-response = 242 (point out that some are activity/attraction PLUS accommodation too).
Accommodation – 61% of IZ sample
Comprising – 14% motels (of total 242)
22% hosted
Similar proportions for ROC – but accommodation is 65% and visitor transport on 4%.

10. % of businesses affected Mean
Factors affecting businesses
% of businesses
affected
Mean
Reduced visitor numbers 55
3.2
Non-structural damage (fittings) 29
1.8
Changes in staff emotional wellbeing 22
2.0
Damage to equipment (non-computing) 19
1.7
Structural damage to building 16
Damage to ground surface 15
1.6
Damage to nearby buildings 12
Damage to computers 9
1.5
Damage to adjacent buildings 8
Staff temporarily relocated 6
1.4
Located within the cordon 7
Staff felt unsafe returning to building 5
Staff permanently relocated 2
1.2
Physical harm to employees 1
1.1
I have cross-tabbed all the factors with business location, which produced some significant results (I’ll add these into the report). 14 businesses in Christchurch (14/65) said they were located within the cordon.
Reduced visitor numbers – felt most in Christchurch (78%) and Banks Peninsula (100%). 2/3 of Christchurch operators described this as being very disruptive.
Non-structural – 54% of Christchurch operators said this affected their organisation, with a broad range of levels of disruption reported.
Damage to equipment – 41% of Christchurch operators, 36% said it was either moderately or very disruptive.
Structural damage – 28% of Christchurch operators, again with a broad range of levels of disruption.

11. Change in visitor type
Activity/Attraction and visitor transport – significantly more likely to report drop in International
Accommodation – significantly more likely to report increase across all four markets

12. Increases in visitor type by district%
Just within impact zone because there were not enough responses from ROC to do this analysis with any certainty

13. Change in revenue
Larger proportion reporting increased revenue after Feb compared to Sept.

14. Revenue by sector

15. Revenue by sub-sector %

16. Revenue by business location%

17. After the earthquakes
Winners and losers – as a function of location, business type and direct physical impact.

18. By sector
Accommodation showing as having a higher proportion of ‘winners’ compared to act/att and transport.
Ties into resilience debate – maybe the earthquakes were the last straw for businesses that were already stagnating and weak? Whereas more resilient businesses were able to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the earthquakes.

19. Tourism Score Card Christchurch CBD Christchurch excl. CBD
Regional Canterbury
Hotel accommodation
Motels/B&Bs/Holiday Parks
Visitor transport
Activity/Attraction
For Regional Canterbury I put them all as yellow, but I could easily argue for calling them being red too. The other issue is that I couldn’t do a cross-tab on business type vs revenue because of the low sub-sample populations, so the yellow is an assumption rather than based on data.
Also, I haven’t looked at the performance of hotels outside the CBD compared to within it – so we are making assumptions here. They could be green, not yellow. I’m thinking of the Sudima etc round the airport, which must be doing really well.
Christchurch activity/attraction operators – I would say they are hanging in there, but how long can they hold out? Desperately need visitors to come back to the city.
Performing poorly
Doing ok
Performing well

20. Conclusions
The whole tourism sector is not ‘on its knees’ –> ‘In disaster there is opportunity’
Some businesses struggling, others are thriving;
Parts of accommodation sector are performing very well
Transport and activity/attraction are harder hit – how long can they hold out before numbers increase?
Change in visitor type = a major impact felt throughout Canterbury
Sector responses to the earthquakes differed -> Tourism sector need to be looked at separately

21. Recommendations Operators need to adjust their marketing strategy
Change focus to domestic market to improve short term outcomes
Work towards an international market recovery for the region and the South Island, using Christchurch as the gateway
Full recovery for the city once the CBD and tourism infrastructure rebuild is underway
Need to look at solutions for sub-sectors
CBD rebuild is slow – focus energy on places/businesses that are open and ready to take visitors
This will benefit the transport sector, which is especially in need.

22. Link to the full report Acknowledgments
Orchiston, C., Vargo, J., & Seville, E. Outcomes of the Canterbury earthquake sequence for tourism businesses. Resilient Organisations Research Report 2012/09.
is/tourism_canterbury_earthquakes.pdf
Acknowledgments

23. Response by district District Total # businesses Response rate (%)
Christchurch City
287
40%
Ashburton
101
45%
Kaikoura 98
19%
Hurunui 55
41%
Mackenzie 47
29%
Timaru 42
48%
Selwyn 36
56%
Waimakariri 31
Waimate/Waitaki 22