1. Climate Change in China: Impacts and adaptation
Prof Lin Erda
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Declan Conway, UEA
Defra-DFID
China-UK collaboration
Reading July 29th, 2008
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

2. Achievements in Phase I (2001-04)
Climate Change Scenarios
Temperature to increase by 3~4℃ and rainfall to increase 10~12% by 2080s
Crop Yield Changes
Yields of rice, maize and wheat to change significantly in the next 80 years - without any adaptations
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

3. Phase II ( )
Aims:
Improvements to national modeling of climate impacts
Ningxia case study: Integrated assessment for adaptation policy making
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

4. New results from Phase II Integrating climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios
Climate Change;
CO2 fertilization effects;
Water Availability;
Agricultural land conversion;
All drivers together
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

5. IMPACTS ON CROP YIELDS, WATER AVAILABILITY, AND ARABLE LAND
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
EFFECTS OF CO2
SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS
 T,  P,  R
No, A2, B2
GDP, Pop., Water demand, Land use
ADAPTATION POLICIES
Improvements in Agric. Tech.
IMPACTS ON CROP YIELDS, WATER AVAILABILITY, AND ARABLE LAND
Land use change policies
IMPACTS ON TOTAL PRODUCTION
Water allocation policies
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

6. 17 GCMs from IPCC and PRECIS (A2 emissions)
Annual change in temperature and rainfall for China: 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s
17 GCMs from IPCC and PRECIS (A2 emissions)
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

7. Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

8. Change in total cereal production with different combinations of drivers
Climate Change
With CO2
Climate Change
With CO2 and water
Only Climate Change
All drivers
Climate Change
With Water
Climate Change
Water & Land
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

9. Changes in cereal production per capita under combinations of drivers
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

10. The effect of adaptation strategies on cereal production per capita
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

11. China Case Study: Regional Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture
Ningxia CDM service centre
Ningxia Meteorological Bureau
Prof Lin Erda
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Declan Conway, UEA
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

12. Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west China Semi-arid to arid – high levels of rural poverty Range of different farming systems
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

13. Ningxia regional Integrated Assessment – objectives
Research impacts and vulnerability in the agricultural sector
To help develop the capacity to plan for and respond to a changing climate in China and Ningxia
Design a regional adaptation framework and strategy for Ningxia
Awareness raising, dissemination and engagement
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

14. Adaptation guidelines for Ningxia
Technical report
User-friendly report for decision-makers consisting of three separate sections
Short presentation of an ‘adaptation framework’
Explanation of how to apply the framework, experience from Ningxia
An example of an adaptation strategy for the agricultural sector in Ningxia
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

15. An adaptation framework for Ningxia
Working with UKCIP
3 Identify adaptation options
1 Assess climate risks
2 Integrate development and adaptation goals
4 Prioritise options
New knowledge/
research
6 Monitoring and evaluation
5 Implementation
Adaptation as a process
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

16. Table 1. Recent climate variability and extremes in Ningxia
Climate factor
Evidence of local impacts
Recent warming: Minimum and maximum temperatures have warmed, particularly since the 1980s
Positive impacts include winter wheat has migration northward, harvest time has increased, frost free days have increased, and cold and frost disasters have decreased.
Rainfall: long-term variability has been fairly modest and is similar across the whole region. [Some larger monthly and sub-regional trends]
Of all three agro-ecosystems surveyed, drought is the most recognized meteorological disaster, especially in the middle arid area and southern rainfed mountainous area.
Most respondents in the middle arid area believe that it has become increasingly difficult to acquire drinking water.
Major drought : Rainfall lowest on record in some areas
Observations and local experience support an increased frequency and intensity of droughts with negative impacts on livelihoods.
Crop failure experienced in some areas, significant economic impacts, especially in central area
Some farmers, who depend on rainwater collection cellars, have to buy water in the drought period.
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

17. Rural livelihoods and vulnerability to climate hazards in Ningxia
Questionnaires and discussions with farmers
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

18. Main effects, short and long term Confidence in scenario
Table 2. Future climate change and key risks and opportunities in Ningxia
Climate factor
Main effects, short and long term
Confidence in scenario
Continued warming, e.g. max temperatures increase with B2 and A2;
2020s 1.6, 1.8°C
2050s 2.6, 3.6°C
Benefits from longer growing season
Possible negative impacts of extreme temperatures on yield
Change in frequency and distribution of pests and disease
High confidence, all models show warming at fairly similar rates
Medium confidence in secondary impacts (CO2 fertilisation critical)
Rainfall trends: moderate increase overall (drier in summer, wetter in spring);
2020s +3%, +5%
2050s +4%, +8%
Moderate impacts on water availability and soil moisture.
Impacts will depend on seasonal timing of changes
High-medium confidence, all models show increase in rainfall but seasonal changes less clear
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

19. High-level adaptation recommendations for agriculture and prioritisation
Consider establishment of a cross-departmental group on adaptation within regional government
Raising awareness on climate change trends, potential impacts and adaptation activities across the region
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

20. High Improvements in early warning
Table 6. Examples of priority adaptations
Sector / Risk or opportunity
Risk priority
Possible high level adaptations
Respon-sible stake-holder(s)
Adapt.
priority
Northern Ningxia
RISK: Change in Yellow River flows
High
Improvements in early warning
Improvements in intra-regional (and sectoral) allocation of water
Yellow River Comm.
Ningxia Water Resource Dept.
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

21. Some reflections on Phase II
Challenges:
Uncertainty about the detail of CC remains high – need for
research to reduce uncertainties
flexibility / adaptive management
Time scales beyond horizons of stakeholders
Other socio-economic changes more significant (population, economic growth)
Modelling impacts can become very complex and time consuming (CO2 fertilisation, model sensitivity, etc.)
Climate science
Seasonal forecasting / Decadal variability (causes of droughts)
Improved understanding of CO2-crop water use-land cover interactions
Better understanding of extremes (projections and impacts)
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

22. Some reflections on Phase II
Methods:
Consultation essential – need good understanding of current sensitivity, vulnerability and capacity to adapt
Impacts assessment – can be very technical/time consuming – keep simple
Embed CC concerns within existing management systems and processes
No blueprints for adaptation, need to invest time on communication and awareness raising, especially at provincial level
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

23. Some reflections on Phase II
Opportunities:
Recent extremes may highlight current sensitivity and vulnerability (and effective responses)
Concern about CC may be quite high
Many existing options often already present – ‘no regrets’ [CC often exacerbates existing problems]
Entry points likely to be dealing with existing ‘adaptation gap’: better management of climate hazards
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008

24. Thank you
Overview of UK-China Climate Change and Agriculture Project March 2008