1. Seasonal Forecasts for Fisheries Applications
September 15, 2017
NMME/SubX Science Meeting, college park
Desiree Tommasi, NOAA SWFSC
With Many thanks to charlie Stock, Mike alexander, Gaelle Hervieux, Mike Jacox, Gabe Vecchi, Liwei jia, alistair hobday, kathy pegion and many others

2. Outline
The need for S2S climate predictions – a fisheries prospective
Overview of seasonal SST forecast skill at a fishery relevant scale
Pacific sardine case study
Future research needs
GFDL applications have largely been large scale – global, centennial scale, but most fisheries management decisions made on shorter inter-annual to decadal time scalesseasonal to interannual scale important for fisheries application

3. Climate variability affects fish dynamics
YEARS
BIOMASS (106 METRIC TONS)
Climate change, climate variability
Baumgartner et al. 1992

4. The demise of cannery row
Maintenance of high fishing rates during climate-induced reductions in productivity can lead to stock collapse. How can we anticipate shifts in productivity?
Photos courtesy of the city of Monterey

5. In Maine, More Lobsters Than They Know What to Do With Price down to a 40-year low
New York Times, June 2012
Oyster 2008
Columbia River 2015, Maine 2012, Taiwan2008 la nina, anomalous strong northeasterly winds drove the cold China coastal current southewards into the Taiwan Strait

6. West coast fisheries hit hard by poor ocean conditions
Oregon Public Broadcasting News , October 2016
$110 million loss for crab fishery
Columbia River 2015, Maine 2012, Taiwan2008 la nina, anomalous strong northeasterly winds drove the cold China coastal current southewards into the Taiwan Strait

7. Scales of Marine Ecosystems Decisions
S2S
Industry
Feed cycles
Aerators
Farm maintenance
Extreme weather responses
Stocking/harvest time
Quota purchases
Labor and gear needs
Equipment purchase
Where/when/what to fish for
Management
Beach closures (e.g. HAB’s, jellies)
Fisheries closures to reduce unwanted and incidental capture
Provision of catch advice
Tommasi et al., 2017; Progress in Oceanography

8. Can incorporation of S2S predictions make management more effective?
For species that strongly respond to climate variability

9. Are S2S predictions skillful at the temporal and spatial scales at which fish operate and are managed?
For species that strongly respond to climate variability

10. Large Marine Ecosystems produce 80% of global annual fish catch
coherent ocean areas along continental margins whose ecological systems have similar bathymetry, hydrography, and biological productivity

11. Monthly SST Anomaly Forecast Skill in the California Current LME
NMME Ensemble Mean
Persistence
Based on the Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for SST anomalies
from hindcasts during
Lead time (months)
GCMs have skill in predicting SSTs but varies widely by region, e.g.
Gulf of Alaska & California Current reasonably good
Southeast and northeast US not so much
Initialization month
Stock et al., 2015; Progress in Oceanography; Hervieux et al., 2017; Climate Dynamics; Jacox et al., 2017; Climate Dynamics

12. Brier Skill Score of Probabilistic SST Hindcasts
Model
LME
LME
Hervieux et al., 2017; Climate Dynamics

13. Skillful SST seasonal prediction at a fishery relevant scale Can incorporation of seasonal climate forecasts make marine ecosystems decisions more effective?
For species that strongly respond to climate variability

14. Pacific sardine recruitment depends on SST
Recruitment Anomaly
Climate variability drives fluctuations in abundance (Baumgartner et al. 1992, Lindegren et al. 2013)
Robust recruitment-SST relationship (Lindegren and Checkley 2013)
SST used to set Emsy in current harvest guideline (Hill et al. 2014)
SST
Lindegren and Checkley, 2013; Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences

15. Improved Management through seasonal climate Predictions
Environmental
Considerations
Skillful SST forecast generated higher stock biomass and yield
Lower risk of collapse if combined with existing harvest cutoff
Tommasi et al., 2017; Ecological Applications

16. Other current applications of seasonal forecasts in marine ecosystems decisions
Dynamic spatial management of the Australian east coast tuna fishery, Hobday et al. 2011
Coral reef management, Spillman et al. 2011, Eakin et al. 2012
Prawn or salmon aquaculture farm management in Australia, Spillman et al , Spillman et al. 2015
Economic efficiency of Great Australian Bight tuna fishery, Eveson et al. 2015
Operational planning of the Maine lobster fishery (statistical forecast), Mills et al. in preparation
Control of illegal tuna fisheries in Indonesia, Gehlen et al. 2015
Sardine spatial distribution, Kaplan et al. 2016, Siedlecki et al. 2016
Tommasi et al., 2017; Progress in Oceanography

17. Future Research Needs
Reduction in climate model bias through improvements in model formulation and initialization
Improvements in model physics, parametrizations, assimilation

18. Future Research Needs
Verify predictability of ecosystem relevant variables at decision relevant scales beyond SST
In hot water: Columbia's sockeye salmon face mass die-off
Warm water temperatures have made life 'grim' for sockeye salmon in the Pacific Northwest

19. Future Research Needs
Verify predictability of ecosystem relevant variables at the subseasonal scale
S2S

20. Future Research Needs
Accuracy of probabilistic forecast for maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, and rainfall in Queensland, Australia
Develop and verify probabilistic forecasts of ecosystem relevant variables
The skill score corresponds to the ratio of the number of correct forecasts to the total number of forecasts for the period of
Spillman et al. 2015

21. Future Research Develop biogeochemical prediction capabilities
SEACHANGE Oyster dying as coast is hit hard
A Washington family opens a hatchery in Hawaii to escape lethal waters.

22. Future Research
Unresolved local processes can limit predictability of ecosystem relevant variables
1o ocean
1/4o ocean
Unresolved local processes significantly modify large-scale warming trends
1/10o ocean
Saba et al., JGR, 2016

23. Future Research
Improve climate predictability at LMR-relevant regional scales through higher resolution global prediction systems
1o ocean
1/4o ocean
Find CM FLOR slide
1/10o ocean
Saba et al., JGR, 2016

24. Future Research
Improve climate predictability at LMR-relevant regional scales through the development of downscaling frameworks
Find CM FLOR slide
Siedlecki et al., 2016; Scientific Reports

25. Thank you!