1. (To be edited by Dr Raji Reddy’s Group)
VIEW GRAPHS BY PRS RAO
(To be edited by Dr Raji Reddy’s Group)

2. CLIMATE RISK- SEMI ARID VILLAGE AT MEHABUBNAGAR
CROP (Specific) - RAINFED MAIZE, RAINFED Bt.COTTON
LIVESTOCK (Specific) - SHEEP
RISK MGT AT
FAMILY LEVEL – LIVELIHOOD PERSPECTIVE
COMMUNITY LEVEL
GOVERNMENT AND BANK
VARIABILITY OF RISK
AT FARM SCALE – IN TIME AND SPACE
LIVELIHOOD OPTIONS
COMBINATION OF ENTERPRISES

3. CROP YIELD SCENERIO at study village
NORMAL YIELD kg/ha
GOOD YEILD kg/ha
YEARS
POOR YEILD kg/ha
BEST YEILD
kg/ha
Maize
Red 3,750
Black-5,000
Red 5,000
Black-7,500
2000,1998, 2007
Red 1,250
Black-2,500
2001,2002, 2003, 1997
15,000 (Black)
Bt. Cotton
1750
2500
2007
500
2008
3000

4. Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost
Decision on
Climate & other information (minimum)
Lead time
Additional cost
Additional benefit (correct choice)
Penalty (Wrong choice)
Choice of crop- maize or cotton?
Seasonal total. Long dry spell timing
Before sowing
None
30-60% higher yield
Lose benefit
Best sowing window in – June 1 wk to Aug 1 wk
Distribution of wet/dry spells, Crop simulation runs
20-80 % higher yield
Lose benefit / can not sow the crop
Moisture stress management for the crop
Dry spell at silk formation stage (60-70 das)
7-10 days ahead
Irrigation
Cost
Aphids management
Wet spells in Vegetative growth, silk formation
Plant protection
10-30% higher yield

5. Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost
Decision on
Climate & other information (minimum)
Lead time
Additional cost
Additional benefit (correct choice)
Penalty (Wrong choice)
Timing and number of top dressing
Wet spells in Vegetative growth, silk formation
2-3 weeks ahead
None
10-30% higher yield
Inefficient use, loss of benefit
Management of water logging, Downy mildew and wilt in Black soils
Long wet spells in Vegetative growth, silk formation
4-7 days ahead
Drainage, Plant protection, micro nutrients
20-40% higher yield
Cost / Loss of benefit

6. Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost
Cotton
Decision on
Climate & other information (minimum)
Lead time
Additional cost
Additional benefit (for correct choice)
Penalty (for Wrong choice)
Best sowing window in – May 4th wk to June 4th wk
Distribution of wet/dry spells, Crop simulation runs
Before sowing
None
20-80 % higher yield
Lose benefit / can not sow the crop
Moisture stress management for the crop
Dry spell at boll formation stage ( das)
7-10 days ahead
Irrigation
30-60% higher yield
Cost / loss of benefit
Thrips management
Dry spells at Veg. & boll form stage
Plant protection
10-40% higher yield
Mealy bug management
Not clear

7. Climate & other information (minimum) Lead time Additional cost
Cotton
Decision on
Climate & other information (minimum)
Lead time
Additional cost
Additional benefit (for correct choice)
Penalty (for Wrong choice)
Aphids management
Wet spells in Vegetative growth, boll formation
7-10 days ahead
Plant protection
10-40% higher yield
Cost/ Loose benefit
Timing and number of top dressing
2-3 weeks ahead
None
10-30% higher yield
Inefficient use, loss of benefit
Management of water logging, and wilt in Black soils
Long wet spells in Vegetative growth, boll formation
4-7 days ahead
Drainage, Plant protection, micro nutrients
20-40% higher yield
Cost / Loose benefit

8. CROP -TOTAL CLIMATE RISK COMPONENT
From end to end- Land preparation, crop sowing TO
Harvest and post harvest operations
Consider both
Direct impact- by moisture stress, water logging and on Crop physiology
Indirect impact – by triggering rapid increase of pests, diseases and vector populations that are already endemic.
In any particular year a partiuclar combination of such ‘adverse events’ would occur
It is possible to construct simple models for such climate impact by using
Existing literature
Expert knowledge of farmers, field researchers

9. NOTE All further slides refer to Rainfed groundnut at Anantpur
These are illustrative of methodology
similar questions (to the ones mentioned here) were asked by farmers in the study village.

10. Plot level- Profit / loss is rain+ many others

11. At plot level- Yield variation and rain- relationship is much weaker than EXPECTED

12. Simple model for Rainfed Groundnut At Anantpur- an example

13. Climate – Direct impact

14. Climate- indirect impact

15. TOTAL CLIMATE RISK FOR GROUNDNUT CROP

16. Validation of Model Prediction and Field data

17. Crop model Validation with observed yield

18. Anantpur District average groundnut yield- (1975-1995) - Avg rain-47 cm
Cost of Cultivation

19. Optimal sowing window Frequently asked question
No additional cost, but very high benefit for correct choice but, high penalty for wrong choice
Need long term daily rainfall, crop simulation model, soil data, crop management data
Simple model on pest and diseases would be desirable (Indirect impact of climate)

20. Recent shift in cropping patterns- Lack of experience of optimal sowing windows

21. PUNTGRO- Year wise yield at different sowing dates

22. PUNTGRO- Year wise yield at different sowing dates

23. Low chance of crop failure? – sow late

24. Best chances of High yields? – sow late

25. High chance of Moisture stress at Pod filling (60-85 days after sowing)

26. Low chance of Moisture stress at Pod filling (60-85 days after sowing)

27. Chance of leaf miner incidence v/s sowing date

28. Chance of Late leaf spot v/s sowing date

29. Community level Livelihood options at 3 villages of Anantpur

31. 6 villages in Anantpur region
Located in 3 separate Mandals, distributed in an area of about 4000 sq km
Data from Marginal and small farmers, Vulnerable sections to climate risk
Sample of 20-40% of the total families in the community
Family wise data collection from 2005 to 2008

32. Family wise Annual income distribution- 6 villages

33. Family wise Cattle population in 6 villages.

34. Family wise sheep and Goat income- 6 villages

35. How much credit?

36. Reasons for first debt ? – crop (during bad year), bore wells, sheep are the big reasons

37. Govt. programs as a safety net

38. CPRs as the safety net

39. Highest number of animals not with the largest of farms

40. Mid size farms have the largest credit

41. Debt trap (3rd Default) - Reasons

42. To be included still
RISK MGT AT
For SHEEP

43. C

44. C

45. C