1. Traffic Flow Changes: Consequences & Limitations
Joe Sultana
Director Network Manager
14 October 2016

2. Traffic Developments in 2016 Europe: +2.8%

3. Traffic Developments in 2016 Europe: +2.8%

4. Traffic Flow Changes
Russian flow continuously losing traffic - no longer Europe’s first external flow
From 625 daily flights in August 2013 to 375 daily flights in August 2016
Important decrease of Russian traffic, outcome of the Ukrainian crisis
+ 63 flights/day in Aug 2013 with 625 flights/day
119 flights/day in Aug flights/day
Departures from Europe to External Partners.
Flight change (per day) compared to previous year (Jan-13 to Aug-16)
Traffic Flow Changes

5. Big changers in 2016(total traffic)
+9%
+9%
Negative impact on East. Europe overflights due to A/D losses in Egypt & Turkey
Strong growth on touristic flows between
NW Europe & Iberia (incl. islands), driven by LCC
-15%
-14%
Several airspace unavailabilities
(closures,warnings)
-12%
-8%
-25%
+9%
+9%
+9%
+9%

6. Traffic Flow Changes (2016)
+13 %
Iceland
Russia, Turkey and Egypt arrivals & departures in decline,
impacting Eastern Europe (overflights)
N America
+9 %
Ireland
+8 %
Poland
NW Europe
-13%
Ukraine
Growth on South-West
axis (shift from South-East + economic recovery)
-11%
Moldova
Slide provided by STATFOR. This slide is representing:
States which nb of IFR movements have increased by more than 7% or less than -7% (all flows: A/D arrival/departures, O overflights and I internals=domestic) over the summer period (Apr-Aug 2016 vs Apr-Aug 2015):
The related shifts of flows in Europe (filled arrow is when traffic has increased, empty arrow is when the traffic has decreased, Red/white zones roughly widely indicate SCHEMATIC airspace closure/unavailabilities)
=> Main message: increase of IFR movements on the Western Europe side / decline in south-East and Eastern Europe…see previous slide. This led to a shift of touristic flows from Egypt/Turkey to Greece, Portugal and Spain. Moreover, a lot of constraints in terms of routing options from/to Middle-East (schematic airspace unavailability given here).
INCREASE – WESTERN + SOUTH-WESTERN EUROPE
Santa Maria/Portugal/Spain/Canary Islands:
Positive impact of NW Europe (UK, Netherlands, Germany, France): touristic flows,
Also strong domestic traffic (Canary Islands),
Strong overflight growth (Portugal, Spain, Santa Maria),
Finally, some additional overflights (“re-routings”) including Canary Islands-UK avoiding France (ERATO Brest)
Malta:
Strong overflight growth, incl. transatlantic flows re-routed more southerly via Malta, Greece…
Some additional overflights due to recent increase on Russia-Tunisia flow
Iceland:
Strong overflight growth from K Region ,
Strong A/D from/to UK, Germany, France (all A/D ~ 140 fl/day),
Ireland:
Growth on A/D btw Ireland and NW European States (UK, France, Netherlands…)
Strong overflight growth linked with North America – Middle East flows
Poland:
Some overflight growth from Russian flows to Tunisia, Bulgaria (for example)
Some strong A/D growth from/to NW European states (eg UK, Spain)
DECREASE – EASTERN / SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
Albania:
Decline of overflights on btw NW Europe and Egypt, Turkey and Greece
Moldova/Ukraine:
Russian declines + Russia-Ukraine Ban, and Russia-Turkey ban (now lifted)
Armenia:
Decrease of overflights due to Russian A/D declines,
Possible routes changes from airlines (unit rates ? Airspace unavailability?)
+7 %
Spain
-7 %
Albania
- 17%
Armenia
+10 %
Santa Maria
+11 %
Portugal
+11 %
Canaries
+9 %
Malta
Middle East

7. Main Events in the last 3 years
2014 Conflict in Ukraine,
crash of MH17
2014 Events in Egypt
2014 Libya airspace
closure
2015 Events in Tunisia
2016 Events in Turkey
Network still impacted today
Traffic Flow Changes

8. Delay Situation – European level
Current estimation: 0.85 min/flight
Delay forecast: 0.68 min/flight
Weather and disruptions estimated at 0.2 min/flight

9. Delay Situation – European level
Current estimation: 0.85 min/flight
Delay forecast: 0.68 min/flight
Weather and disruptions estimated at 0.2 min/flight
Current weather and disruptions: 0.38 min/flight

10. Traffic Developments in 2016 Portugal : +9.5%
2016 vs 2015: +9.5%
2016 vs 2011: +22%
Based on the RP2 traffic forecast (September 2013) these traffic levels were expected around

11. Traffic and Capacity Brest ACC
Traffic evolution
2016 vs 2015: +4.4%
2016 vs 2011: +14%
Capacity increase
2016 vs 2015: 3% achieved vs 1% planned (after mid July 2016)
2016 vs 2011: similar levels
Delay evolution
2016 vs 2015: 2.00 min/flt
2016 vs 2011: +1000%
Not meeting network requirements

12. Brest ACC – Summer 2016 Main generator of delay in Europe
Traffic increase of 7%, peaks in
weekends
More open sectors than 2015 led to slight improvements during 1st rotations
Later shifts with same sector configuration as 2015, still under 2014 capacity levels
Average opened sectors Brest Summer Saturdays
No staffing flexibility
Capacity offered is still not
balanced with the demand
Line chart uses NM system to estimate nr of sectors opened -> not validated by Brest.
Traffic Flow Changes

13. Traffic and Capacity Brest ACC
Measures implemented
ERATO Implementation
Better configurations and sector capacities as from mid July 2016
Enhanced ATFCM collaborative measures
Close cooperation with NM

14. Traffic and Capacity Lisbon ACC
Traffic evolution
2016 vs 2015: +9.7%
2016 vs 2011: +22%
Based on the RP2 traffic forecast (September 2013) these traffic levels were expected around
Capacity increase
2016 vs 2015: +14% achieved vs 7% planned
2016 vs 2011: +23%
Delay evolution
2016 vs 2015: 0.2 min/flt
2016 vs 2011: similar levels (for a traffic increase of 22%)
Close to the network requirements but for a significantly higher traffic increase

15. Delay Situation – Lisbon ACC
2016 vs 2015: -50%
2016 vs 2011: similar levels
below 0.2 min/flight
for a traffic increase of 22%
Close to the network requirements but for a significantly higher traffic increase

16. Traffic and Capacity Lisbon ACC
Measures implemented
Increased sector capacities
Flexible split of sectors
Flexible configurations adapted to demand
Appropriate staffing levels to maintain maximum configurations
Enhanced ATFCM measures
Close cooperation with NM

17. Further preparations
Continuous evaluation of sector capacities and opening schemes
Further re-sectorisation measures
Continuous staff availability
Application of STAM
Network scenarios

18. Average daily traffic and delay (all-causes) – YTD (2016 vs. 2015)

19. Average daily traffic and delay (all-causes) – YTD (2016 vs
Average daily traffic and delay (all-causes) – YTD (2016 vs. 2015) – France, Spain and Portugal only

20. Average daily traffic and delay (all-causes) & average number of open sectors ( ) – YTD (2016vs2015)

21. Flight Efficiency Portugal: First Free Route Airspace Implementation
SW FAB: The only FAB meeting in 2016 the Environment targets

22. Flight Efficiency
KEP – off target by 0.37pp for the SES area and by 0.52pp for the NM area (YTD)
The gap between KEP NM and KEP SES decreased from 0.28pp in 2012 (reference year) to 0.15 pp in 2015;
Strikes – miles lost on FPL due to major French strikes in 2016
Ukraine-Russian ban miles lost on FPL due to UA ban until end July
RRPs-FE – 1300 NM/day proposed but only NM saved since January
Low (7.3%) acceptance rate – further decrease since end-2015 (8.8%)
FE target difficult to reach – further attempt with greater AOs involvement
Slide aims at showing a clear effect of the flow changes on a performance scheme indicator

23. Impacts Capacity and Flow Management
Increased traffic unpredictability
Difficulties in balancing capacity with shifts in demand increased by the limitations in budget in most of the ACCs
Added difficulties in planning recurrent events (jet-stream changes)
Deterioration of pre-tactical collaboration
Late notice regulations on the day of operations
2nd bullet point: this refers to two separate issues 1. limits on the nr of controllers 2. limits on the overtime per controller
3rd bullet point: In addition to the events described in the previous slides, the change on jet-streams have also created extra traffic peaks on certain ACCs
Traffic Flow Changes

24. Improvements needed Strategic Pre-Tactical Adapt capacity to new flows
Airspace adaptations
Capacity increase during first-rotations
Capacity increase during weekends
Pre-Tactical
Earlier identification of network weaknesses
Better coordination amongst ACCs
Information sharing and collaboration with other ACCs and NMOC to improve coordination and capacity planning
More engagement at axis level
Danube FAB gained a lot of overflights due to Ukraine crisis, especially during 2014 and Delays were always kept at 0.0 (exceptions Jul and Aug 2015 below<0.25). Could be given as a good example in both staff flexibility and airspace adaptation (FRA implementation?)
Traffic Flow Changes

25. enter your presentation title
Summary
A complex network with interdependencies between capacity, flight efficiency and costs ANSPs working with Network Manager is only way to deliver the performance More is needed to cope with future demand System evolutions, flexibility are key for 2020+
enter your presentation title

26. Joe Sultana Director Network Manager joe.sultana@eurocontrol.int
Thank you
Joe Sultana
Director Network Manager

27. Warsaw ACC Summer 2016
Despite the decrease of Russian flights to/from Europe, Poland had a significant increase of Russian overflights due to the combination of airspace limitations in Eastern Europe
Traffic growth 8% in July and 9% in August (3% higher than forecasted)
Organizational changes led to more rigidity in staffing working hours
Less 1 or 2 sectors opened than previous
summer for several periods of the day
En-route ATFM delay Warsaw ACC
Bar chart uses NM system to estimate nr of sectors opened -> not validated by Poland.
Decrease of capacity offered
Significant delay increase
Traffic Flow Changes

28. Reference
Time period (YTD): from 1st January 2016 to 1st October 2016; the same period is used for 2015 comparison (delay and traffic data for Brussels CANAC are available only until the beginning of August)
Traffic: average daily traffic – number of flights
Delay: average daily delay (all-causes) – minutes
Open sectors: average number of open sectors between 0500 and 2100 across the whole period (January-September)
Sectors data not available for London (TMA/ACC); Scottish ACC and Marseille TMA.

29. Traffic and Capacity Bordeaux ACC
Traffic evolution
2016 vs 2015: +6.5%
2016 vs 2011: +15%
Capacity increase
2016 vs 2015: 0% achieved vs 1% planned (after mid July 2016)
2016 vs 2011: similar levels
Delay evolution
2016 vs 2015: 0.73 min/flt
2016 vs 2011: +700%
Not meeting network requirements

30. Traffic and Capacity Bordeaux ACC
Measures implemented
Additional sector layer
Better configurations as from mid July 2016
Enhanced ATFCM collaborative measures
Close cooperation with NM

31. Traffic and Capacity Canarias ACC
Traffic evolution
2016 vs 2015: +10.1%
2016 vs 2011: +4%
Capacity increase
2016 vs 2015: +10% achieved vs 3% planned
2016 vs 2011: +22%
Delay evolution
2016 vs 2015: 0.25 min/flt
2016 vs 2011: -80%
Better then network requirements

32. Traffic and Capacity Canarias ACC
Measures implemented
Increased sector capacities
Flexible split of sectors
Flexible configurations adapted to demand
Close cooperation with NM