1. Prediction despite Uncertainties

2. Figure 5.5. Contributions of different greenhouse gases
052
Figure Contributions of different greenhouse gases
to radiative forcing
E.A. Mathez, 2009, Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future, Columbia University Press. Data from Forster et al., 2007

4. What is the C02 concentration today? 404.5

6. Is global warming caused by changes in solar output?
Union of Concerned Scientists

7. Ocean surface pH projections to 2100
After Bopp et al., 2013
3.2°–5.4°C
Global
temperature increase likely
by 2100:
0.9°–2.3°C

8. Potential food web impacts
Coccolithophores
Copepods
Pacific Salmon
Pteropods
V. Fabry
Barrie Kovish
Vicki Fabry

9. Marine Fish impacts
Barrie Kovish
Vicki Fabry

10. Pacific Northwest oyster emergency
Willapa Bay
seed crisis
Failure of larval oyster recruitments in recent years
Commercial oyster hatchery failures threatens $100M industry (3000 Jobs)
Low pH “upwelled” waters a possible leading factor in failures
Larval oyster may be “canary in goldmine” for near-shore acidification?

11. Commercially important organisms

12. History of Atmospheric CO2
History of Atmospheric CO2 through geological time (past 550 million years: from Berner, Science, 1997). The parameter RCO2 is defined as the ratio of the mass of CO2 in the atmosphere at some time in the past to that at present (with a pre-industrial value of 300 parts per million). The heavier line joining small squares represents the best estimate of past atmospheric CO2 levels based on geochemical modeling and updated to have the effect of land plants on weathering introduced 380 to 350 million years ago. The shaded area encloses the approximate range of error of the modeling based on sensitivity analysis. Vertical bars represent independent estimates of CO2 level based on the study of ancient soils.

13. Climate impacts on nature in the news
Fish Kills: Unprecedented temperature threatens marine eco-system
Die off of marine mammals in Alaska
Ocean Acidification slows coral reef growth (
El Niño prolongs longest global coral bleaching event

14. Example habitat ranges - American Pika
Over 1/3 have already disappeared
Adapted for cold/freezing mountainous habitats-
As temperature rises and winter snow decreases:
summer heat stress
Low snow coverage reduces winter insulation/warmth
Weakened state, thermal stress/earlier aging of vegetation, - vulnerable to predators
Cannot migrate farther north- already at the top of mountains
What would happen if this species went extinct?
Image credit:

15. Range shifts: Butterflies and Birds
Ranges of host plants may not change at the same rate as range of flying insects or birds = diet mismatch
Noticed rate of Comma’s expansion was 50 miles/decade North Ranges of host plants may not change at the same rate
Chris Thomas, biologist at University of York
Specialist – require specific conditions; Generalist – less picky
What are Commas, given that they can move North?
Thomas studied 35 generalists and found 22 moved North while 1 moved South
What does this have to do with evolution?
Climate change affecting environment
Phenotypic Plasticity
Co-evolution

16. Timing of biological activities Bark Beetles in Western Forests
Earlier snowmelt & warmer spring temperatures=annual summer drought earlier in the spring
High winter temperatures- more beetle larvae survive
Warmer summers- 2 generations per year; trees are drier
Bark beetles burrow into trees, block nutrient flow between roots & branches
Weaker defense system of tree- dryness weakens sap production flow - facilitates beetles invasion of trees
Dead trees are more likely to start wildfires
Trees die off - beetle infestation spreads into the Northeast
This is happening in the NJ pine barrens as well as in the American west. There is a cascade of effects that makes trees much more vulerable to beetles and wildfires, it is cyclical with each one increasing the vulnerabilty to the other.
Image credit:

17. How do green house gases work?