1. District Demographics Update
Allen ISD
District Demographics Update
2016/17
February 27, 2017

2. © School District Strategies
ALLEN ISD DEMOGRAPHICS PROFILE: UPDATE
Allen ISD’s overall population in 2016 is estimated to be 96,021 (+3.7% vs and +17.4% since 2010 Census)
In 2016, the district is estimated to have 31,907 total households, an increase of 4,542 households since 2010 (+16.6%)
Total households are up 2.9% (+889) vs. 2015
Over the next five years, the average rate of population and HH growth in the district is projected to be near 2.4% per year
District projected to have over 108,000 residents and almost 36,000 total households by summer 2021
Let’s begin with the latest national/government based statistics from ESRI and the US Census Bureau.
In the summer 2016, the district’s total population was estimated to be just above 175, That’s an increase of 1.8% vs. last year’s total (2015 = 172,042).
The total number of Households in the district increased by 1.1% over the past year to 58,544.
The key takeaway here is that since the 2010 Census the over population and total number of HH in the district have been growing at a rate generally between % per year. This past year these 2016 estimates show growth that has exceeded the average annual rates for this decade.
Now moving forward over the next five years, ESRI’s projected growth rates are faster (closer to 1.0% annually), which would push the district’s population up over 184,000 and grow the total number of HH in the district to over, 61,000.
<slide>
Source: ESRI & U.S. Census Bureau
© School District Strategies

3. ALLEN ISD ENROLLMENT HISTORY (PK-12): FALL 2006-FALL 2016
10/28/16
Total enrollment climbs to a record high in Fall 2016
AISD enrollment has increased by 1,552 students over the past 5 years and by 4,444 students over the past 10 years

4. ALLEN ISD ENROLLMENT HISTORY: PK-12 ANNUAL GROWTH 2006/07 – 2016/17
5-Yr Avg. = +310 students per year
2-Yr Avg. = +151 students per year
+3.5%
+2.6%
+2.2%
+1.5%
+0.8%
+0.7%
AISD has averaged 1.6% annual growth since the 2011/12 school year; however, over the last two years the rate of growth has slowed to an average of 0.75% per year

5. ALLEN ISD ENROLLMENT HISTORY:
GROWTH BY ATTENDANCE LEVEL FALL 2006-FALL 2016
5 Yr. Net Growth = +215
5 Yr. Net Growth = +280
5 Yr. Net Growth = +162
5 Yr. Net Growth = +855

6. ALLEN ISD ENROLLMENT HISTORY BY GRADE LEVEL
In Fall 2016, many grade levels (5th grade and up) climb to record size
Largest classes are currently in 5th-8th grade (internal bubble)
Kindergarten declines to a 10-year low this fall

7. ALLEN ISD BIRTHS vs. KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT

8. Annual Job Growth in Major Texas Markets (Dec.2016)
GROWTH DRIVERS: TEXAS ECONOMY
Employment Growth
Dec – Dec. 2016
United States
million +1.41%
Texas
+213, %
# of Jobs Created in Past 6 Years
DFW ,000
Houston 439,400
Austin 207,800
San Antonio 155,500
Annual Job Growth in Major Texas Markets (Dec.2016)
DFW ,500
Houston +14,800
Austin +18,800
San Antonio +21,800
12/ /2016
+213,500 net new jobs
+1.78% growth rate
12,221,700 employed
Source: TWC – CES (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

9. GROWTH DRIVERS: DFW JOB GROWTH
+113,500
3.26% growth rate
25-Year Annual Average
58,336
Economic Cycle Recovery
Cycle Low
Jan ,858,400
Current Level
Dec ,597,100
Net Gain ,700
% Gain %
Annual Change Dec.‘15 – Dec.‘16
TWC CES: +113,500
Total DFW MSA: 3,597,100
Sources: TWC – CES, Dallas Federal Reserve (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

10. GROWTH DRIVERS: LOW MORTGAGE RATES
Source: Freddie Mac

11. DFW EXISTING HOME SALES (DFW MSA)
Median Sales Price = $230,000
Up $21K (+10.0%) YoY
Annual Resale Rate (12/16) 98,625
Up +4.8% vs. 1 Year Ago
Month Supply of Listings: 1.82
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
Low inventory drives buyers to new home market

12. DFW NEW HOME STARTS, CLOSINGS, AND LOT DELIVERIES
Current Cycle

13. ALLEN ISD PRE-OWNED HOME SALES
Source: NTREIS: SF Homes, Non-Builder Sales Only
323 resales in the district during the 4th quarter of 2016
1,500 total resales in 2016 (+7.0% Y-o-Y)
District’s median pre-owned sold price in 2016 = $295,001 (+9.3% Y-o-Y)

14. ALLEN ISD PRE-OWNED HOME SALES
59% of pre-owned sales in 2016 were east of U.S. 75
Source: NTREIS: SF Homes, Non-Builder Sales Only 1/1/ /31/2016

15. QUARTERLY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
ALLEN ISD
QUARTERLY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION
Start = foundation started Closing = visibly occupied home
Builders start 118 and close 120 new homes in AISD in the 4th quarter

16. ANNUAL NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
ALLEN ISD
ANNUAL NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
Annual Rate and Change
567 Starts: +15.5%
504 Closings: %
Current Cycle
Start = foundation started Closing = visibly occupied home
New home builders in AISD start 567 new homes in 2016 (+15.5% vs. 2015)
Closings end the year up 10.3% at 504 homes
Developers deliver 789 new lots in the district in 2016

17. DFW DISTRICT RANKINGS
BY TOTAL NEW HOME CLOSINGS 4Q15-3Q16
In 2016, Allen ISD ranked 16th in total new home closings compared to the other 82 DFW school districts

18. AISD NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION BY CITY SECTOR 2016
Vacant Developed Lots
Dec. 2016
Annual
Starts
Annual
Closings
Allen - West
Allen - East
McKinney
Parker
Lucas
West Allen communities produce 68% of AISD’s new home closings over the past year
East Allen closings climb to 83 units (16.5% of all closings)
10.1% in McKinney
5.2% in Parker

19. ALLEN ISD TOP SELLING SUBDIVISIONS
(Ranked by Annual Closings)
Elementary/Middle
Zone 2017/18
Annual
Starts
2016
Annual
Closings
2016
Cypress Meadows Evans/Ereckson
The Landings Cheatham/Curtis
Morgan Crossing Chandler/Ford
Creekside at Ridgeview Evans/Ereckson
Cumberland Crossing Kerr/Ereckson
Village Park Lindsey/Curtis
Village at Twin Creeks Boon/Ereckson
Cottonwood Crossing Boyd/Ereckson
Kings Crossing Chandler/Ford
Villas at Twin Creeks Green/Ereckson
The Preserve Evans/Ereckson
Spicewood at Craig Ranch Kerr/Ereckson
Most top selling subdivisions are located in the Northwest portion of the district
Ansley Meadow (79 starts/5 closings in Cheatham/Curtis), and Parker Ranch Estates (22 starts/7 closings in Bolin/Ford) will be moving onto the top producing list in 2017

20. AISD NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY ELEMENTARY ZONE
(2017/18 Attendance Zones)
74% of the district’s annual closings occurred in the northwest elementary zones – Evans, Cheatham, Kerr, Lindsey, Green, Boon, and Preston
Evans and Chandler zones see the most new home closings in 2016
Cheatham zone sees the most starts in 2016 (Ansley Meadow)
Boon start activity increasing as builders at Village at Twin Creeks ramp-up production over the past 9 months

21. AISD NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY MIDDLE SCHOOL ZONE
Ereckson zone continues to see the most activity with 62% of the district’s total closings in 2016

22. Median New Home Price by City Sector
ALLEN ISD NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY PRICE RANGE
All new homes started in AISD in 2016 occurred in subdivisions with average base pricing over $300K
District’s median new home price ends the year at $459,194
(+6.9% Y-o-Y)
DFW Median New Home Price = $345K (+12% Y-o-Y)
Median New Home Price by City Sector
West Allen = $457,604
East Allen = $400,500
McKinney = $428,484
Lucas/Parker = $750,000

23. ALLEN ISD RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
152 new single-family (SF) lots delivered in the 4th quarter
Vista Oaks: 152 lots (Lindsey/Curtis)
1,143 vacant developed lots (VDL) remaining (24.2 month supply)
30% of VDL are lots smaller than 50 ft. wide
637 future SF residential lots under development at Y/E 2016
Subdivision/Phase Total Lots Elementary/Middle
Spicewood at Craig Ranch Ph Kerr/Ereckson
Parkview Lane Townhomes Norton/Ereckson
Montgomery Farm Estates Norton/Ereckson
Parker Ranch Ph. 2 & Bolin/Ford
Vineyards Lindsey/Curtis
Stacy Villas Marion/Curtis
(Blue) = New or updated in 2016

24. ALLEN ISD MULTI-FAMILY DEVELOPMENT
New apartments recently completed or under construction:
Parkside at Craig Ranch Ph. 3 & 4 (Evans/Ereckson)
Twin Creeks Crossing Ph. 2 (Boon/Ereckson)
Dolce Living at Bella Terra (Boon/Ereckson)
Raleigh House at McKinney Ranch (Lindsey/Curtis)
Montgomery Ridge – 333 units (Norton/Ereckson)
(Blue) = New or updated in 2016

25. ALLEN ISD PROPOSED RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
Preliminary Single-Family Projects Included in Enrollment Projections:
Silverado TH’s – 86 lots (Lindsey/Curtis)
Rivercrest Park – 35 lots (Reed/Curtis)
Fountain Park – 26 lots (Reed/Curtis)
St. Andrews Park – 62 lots (Olson/Curtis)
Cottonwood Tract – 350 lots (Preston/Curtis) [Land surrounding PES)
Angel Field East at Montgomery Farm lots (Norton/Ereckson)
Connemara Crossing at Montgomery Farm – 78 lots (Norton/Ereckson)
Ashwood Creek Place TH’s – 19 lots (Norton/Ereckson)
Walnut Springs at Twin Creeks – 146 lots (Evans/Ereckson)
Southgate Ranch – 32 lots (Bolin/Ford)
Proposed Multi-Family Included in Enrollment Projections:
The Luxe Allen – 454 units (Olson/Curtis)
The Kinstead – 380 units (Lindsey/Curtis)
Vera Watters Creek – 266 units (Norton/Ereckson)
Cornerstone Village – 900 units (Evans/Ereckson)
The Reserve at Lucas – 100 units (Chandler/Ford)
(Blue) = New or updated in 2016

26. AISD RESIDENTIAL LOT INVENTORY BY ELEMENTARY ZONE
ANNUAL STARTS 2016
VACANT DEVELOPED LOTS REMAINING
PLANNED FUTURE SINGLE-FAMILY LOTS
PLANNED FUTURE APARTMENTS
Anderson
Bolin 22 45
156
Boon 59
160
388
592
Boyd 29 6
Chandler 51 37
192
100
Cheatham
114
147
337
Evans 86
130
146
2,220
Green 10 7
Kerr 91
115 89
Lindsey 26
304
217
Marion 88
Norton
168
632
599
Olson 62
454
Preston 3
350
380
Reed 61
Rountree
Story 20 21
Vaughan
TOTAL
567
1,143
2,381
4,682

27. AERIAL PHOTOS JANUARY 4, 2017 ALLEN ISD
DISTRICT HOUSING ACTIVITY REPORT
AERIAL PHOTOS
JANUARY 4, 2017

28. US 75 SRT/121 In-progress/Planned Apartments Bethany Lake Forest Alma
Stacy
US 75
SRT/121
Angel Pkwy
Exchange
Exchange
McDermott
Main
Bethany
Greenville
Bethany
In-progress/Planned Apartments

29. ALLEN ISD NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION CLOSINGS MODERATE FORECAST 4Q16
District averages 0.79 students per new home occupancy (0.47 ES, 0.12 MS, and 0.20 HS)
Typical apartment yields 0.27 students per unit
1,737 over the next three years
AISD projected to see an average of 545 new SF homes per year over the next three years under the Moderate Scenario (5 Yr. Avg. = 552 per year)
Planned apartments will likely take another 6-8 years to be constructed and leased out

30. 5 Yr. Avg. Annual Growth Rate = 1.2%
DISTRICT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS (PK-12)
Fall 2016 enrollment comes in between Low and Moderate 4Q15 projection (20,845-20,933)
5 Yr. Avg. Annual Growth Rate = 1.2%
District enrollment is projected to increase by approximately 874 students over the next 3 years, 1,302 over the next 5 years, and leveling off near 22,400 students in 10 years

31. ALLEN ISD 4Q 2016 SUMMARY
District enrollment climbs to a record high of 20,885 in Fall 2016
AISD has averaged 1.6% annual growth over the past five years; however, over the past two years the rate of enrollment growth has slowed to 0.75% per year
In 2016/17, many grade levels (5th and up) climb to record numbers; but Kindergarten enrollment falls to a 10-year low
Area job growth continues to drive new home construction and residential development in the district: 567 new homes started and 504 occupied in 2016 (10-15% increase vs. 2015)
The most active neighborhoods are located in the northwest portion of the district - 74% of closings occurred in the Evans, Cheatham, Kerr, Lindsey, Green, Boon, and Preston zones
In 2016, 62% of new homes were built in the Ereckson zone, but activity is projected to shift towards the Curtis MS zone over the next three years as new neighborhoods open in the Lindsey and Preston zones
District’s median new home price now a record $459,194K (DFW new median = $345K)
Developers deliver 789 new single-family (SF) lots in 2016; 1,143 vacant SF lots were remaining at Y/E 2016
637 future SF lots currently under development in the district
Developers are planning another 1,744 future single-family lots
Over 4,600 apartments are in-progress/planned in the district
New homes are yielding 0.79 students per home and apartments are yielding 0.27 students per unit
Residential development projected to increase total enrollment by an average of 1.2% annually over the next 5 years; pushing district enrollment up to near 22,500 by 2022

32. Copyright 2017 School District Strategies.
16980 Dallas Parkway
Suite 101
Dallas, Texas 75248
Although School District Strategies (SDS) has used commercially reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources it believes to be reliable and accurate, SDS does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information. Information presented in this report represents SDS’s estimates as of the date of the report and is subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as a recommendation or endorsement of any action taken by you or any third party in regard to the subject matter of this report or any other real estate activity. SDS WILL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR SPECIAL DAMAGES, INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) LOST PROFITS, OR DIMINUTION IN VALUE OF YOUR BUSINESS OR PROPERTY, ARISING FROM OR RELATING TO SDS’S SERVICES HEREUNDER, REGARDLESS OF ANY NOTICE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES AND WHETHER OR NOT SUCH DAMAGES ARE REASONABLE OR FORESEEABLE UNDER THE APPLICABLE CIRCUMSTANCES. SDS’S LIABILITY ON ANY CLAIM OF ANY KIND, INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE, FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE ARISING OUT OF, CONNECTED WITH, OR RESULTING FROM THIS REPORT OR THE SERVICES PROVIDED BY SDS SHALL IN NO SINGLE CASE, OR IN THE AGGREGATE, EXCEED THE AMOUNTS ACTUALLY PAID TO SDS IN CONNECTION WITH THE REPORT.
The following contingencies and limiting conditions are noted as fundamental assumptions that may affect the accuracy or validity of the analysis and conclusions set forth in this report. Specifically, the parties assume: that the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area, the State of Texas, and the nation as a whole will not suffer any major economic shock during the time period of the forecast contained in this report; that general population levels will continue to increase at or above the rate forecast; that the public and third party sources of statistical data and estimates used in this analysis are accurate and complete in all material respects, and that such information is a reasonable resource for project planning purposes; the proposed real estate development projects described herein, when completed, will be designed, promoted, and managed in a manner that will have an impact on the local market that is reasonably consistent with other similar projects in the past; and that the recommendations set forth in this report will be acted upon within a reasonable period of time to preclude major changes in the factual conditions evaluated.
Copyright School District Strategies.