1. Presentation to SACOG Board Committees
Draft Regional Growth Projections: Trends, Opportunities and Policy Implications
CCSCE and SACOG Staff
Presentation to SACOG Board Committees
October 5, 2017

2. Forecast Process Key target years 2040 and 2050
Jobs first, then translate to population and HH
U.S. and CA job trends drive regional opportunities
Historical analysis of job trends and shares
Expert panel and stakeholder input
The draft forecast for your review

3. Summary of State & National Findings
Slower growth as boomers retire and birth rates fall
State job growth will slightly outpace nation because we have a competitive advantage in many fast growing sectors
Immigration, trade and especially housing are key issues for the state economy

4. Economic Base Cluster Shares 2016

5. SACOG Region Share of CA Jobs (initial)

6. Feedback From Expert and Stakeholder Panels
General agreement on U.S. forecast, some thought immigration might be lower
Agreement that CA would slightly outpace U.S. in job growth rates
Agreement that SACOG job forecast was likely unless things changed
Did see opportunities in mega region concept as explained by BACEI representative

7. Revisions to First Forecast
Slight upward revision to SACOG region share of professional/info service jobs
Capture of some of the EV auto tech and manufacturing/supply chain jobs
Possible but not included—major new state initiatives, e.g., health care, climate change, that would attract private sector jobs
Also UCD, CSU Sacramento expansions

8. Revised Region Share of CA Jobs

9. Average Annual Job Growth

10. Policy Implications for Job Growth
Housing is the key attractor—enough, affordable, in variety of locations interesting to tech workers
Much faster Bay Area-SACOG train service could help
And exciting programs at UCD, CSU Sacramento
Capitalize on competitive advantages

11. Regional Housing Shortage 2007-16

12. Population and HH Forecasts
Population growth was forecast to keep pace with job growth. The age and ethnic detail came from DOF projections for the region.
The HH forecast to 2030 meets the new state housing strategy goals AND is a critical part of competing for good jobs. The forecast for assumes that the region has caught up with past building shortages and increases in line with population growth.

13. Annual Increase in HH (000s)

14. Regional Population Growth 2015-30 (Thousands)
Age Cohort

15. Population Trend Implications
Falling birth rates imply slow K-12 growth
Major population gains in 65+ age groups as boomers age
Many retire after 65 and almost all after 75 so there will be major job opening opportunities and challenges in filling them
The housing, health and other needs of an aging population will hit the region full force

16. Questions/ Comments Reminder: Optional Board Luncheon Today from 12-1
Further time for Board input and questions
Appendix charts and analysis

17. RHNA Issues Population forecasts (SACOG and DOF) are aligned to 2030.
We do not know if HCD will use their higher HH projection or DOF’s to set the regional RHNA target next time
Attracting higher job growth will push the region toward higher housing production no matter what the RHNA target is

18. CA Share of U. S. Selected Basic Industry Jobs

19. CA Share US Jobs

20. Share of Jobs Excluding Govt. 2016

21. Median Resale Home Prices

22. Regional Housing Permits

23. Regional Population (Thousands)