1. The Fall Campaign October 22, 2015
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2. Ground War
Election campaigns for major offices are fought on the ground and in the air. Campaign professionals use the term ground war to refer to campaign activities featuring direct contact between campaign workers and citizens, such as door-to-door canvassing and personal telephone contacts.
Obama’s ground war operation was much better than Romney’s.
Many groups of Democratic voters are low-turnout voters.
Why is an effective ground war probably more important for Democrats than Republicans?

3. Air War
The air war refers to campaign activities that involve the media, including television, radio, and the Internet. Campaign professionals focus their television advertising on network shows and cable channels that data analyses show are popular with people most likely to support the candidates of their party.
Do you think this is a pro-Romney or anti-Romney ad? Why do you think so?

4. Base Voters v. Swing Voters
Base voters are rock solid Republicans or hardcore Democrats, firmly committed to voting for their party’s nominee.
Swing voters are citizens who could vote for either the Democratic or the Republican nominee.
The key for base voters is to get them to show up to vote because you can count on their votes if they actually make it to the polls. Swing voters, in contrast, must be persuaded to vote for your party/candidate.
What strategy would a party/candidate take if it were targeting base voters? What strategy would be used in targeting swing voters?

5. Base Voters Rule
Swing voters can be the difference when the two party bases are nearly equal and a solid majority of swing voters goes for one candidate or the other. That situation is rare.

6. Democratic Base Larger in 2012
In 2012, voters identifying with the Democratic Party outnumbered Republican Party identifiers 38 percent to 32 percent, giving Obama a distinct advantage. Obama actually lost among independents, 45 to 50 percent.

7. Red States, Blue States--2000
Bush 47.9 %, 271 electoral votes
Gore, 48.4 %, 266 electoral votes,
Nader, 2.7 %, no electoral votes
Bush won the election because he carried Florida by 537 votes of almost 6 million cast.

8. 2004: Bush v. Kerry Bush—50.7%, 286 electoral votes
Kerry—47.3%, 251 electoral votes
Bush won the election because he carried Ohio by 120,000 votes out of 5.5 million cast.

9. 2008: Obama v. McCain Obama, 52.9%, 365 electoral votes
McCain, 45.6%, 173 electoral votes

10. 2012 Election: Obama v. Romney
Obama won the electoral college He won the popular vote by 51 percent to 48 percent.
Don’t forget reapportionment in 2010!
Why are some of the electoral vote numbers different than they were in 2008?

11. Can you identify some swing states?
2000
2004
2012
2008

12. Professor Sabato’s 2016 Projections

13. Political Context
The three most important underlying factors affecting the outcome of a presidential race are the following:
The incumbent president’s approval rating in the months before the election
The growth rate of the economy in the quarter prior to the election
The length of time the president’s party has held the White House.

14. What You Have Learned
What is the difference between the air war and the ground war?
Who are base voters? Who are swing voters? Which group usually determines the election outcome?
What are blue states? Red states? Swing states?
In recent election years, which states have been consistently red, consistently blue, or swing states?
What factors determine the outcome of the vote?