1. Where is the leading edge taking the business?
HighWire Press Publishers’ Meeting
30 April 2003
Cara S. Kaufman

2. Top 5 factors impacting the business of scholarly publishing
…and
what to do

3. Top 5 factors impacting the business of scholarly publishing… and what to do about them
Institutional v individual access
Content licensing
Online only
Research or clinical
“It’s free”

4. Factor 1: Individuals increasingly access content via institutional networks
Low member log-ins but high member use
Stress on individual and institutional circulation; member rolls
Editorial impact
Member impact
Controlled chaos
Changing pricing policies; no standards
Decentralized purchasing but centralized access
Negotiated licenses
Changing intermediaries
: content aggregators, collections
reported in market research

5. Institutional access— what to do
Critique pricing and subscription policies
Explore usage-based, tiered pricing
Prepare to negotiate licensing terms, pricing
Establish new benchmarks for success
Project revenue, ROI
Standardize usage data
Revisit member benefits
Identify benefits beyond journal subscription
Evaluate development of member-only online information services
Go to your audience; be part of community
Gateways, aggregators, content collections
Tiered pricing models: concurrent, FTE, type of inst
Break down subscriber list
Prepare various revenue projection scenarios; talk to your subscribers—indiv and inst
New benchmarks
Start tracking key measurements, such as number of site licenses, MSL, consortia; page views, compare with previous periods
Revisit member benefits if your journal tied subscriptions to membership; may not be as popular to be member if don’t need membership for journal access. Tie to CME? Clinical trials.

6. Factor 2: Content licensing gains prominence
Content aggregators, gateways
Commercial reprints
Institutional site licenses
Translations; international editions
Fastest-growing revenue stream
High margins
Heavy human resource needs
Impact
Branding
Other revenue streams, circulation
Content licensing gains prominence in overall publishing program

7. Content licensing— what to do
Content aggregation
Identify players
References, like journals, audience
Revenue projections, costs, pricing, royalty
Ensure adequate branding, marketing, sales
Commercial reprints
Identify potential
Separate line item
Custom publishing; find partner
Inst site licenses
Segment circulation file
Set sales, unit goals
Project revenue under various scenarios
Program fulfillment
Train customer service
Translations; intl eds
Identify quality players
Use intl board members for quality control
Ensure fair revenue sharing
Count in distribution numbers
Content licensing gains prominence in overall publishing program

8. Factor 3: Growing trend of moving paper-and-online to online only
Library budget cuts, space constraints
“Just in time” use
Enhanced functionality of online
Journal content as part of database
Archive responsibility
Self-service
Morgan Stanley Report
Hopkins: 2 year timeline to virtual
Memorial Sloan Kettering: as soon as possible, now
Univ Georgia: cancel print whenever online only is available
Big costs—subscriptions yes, but capital/resource investment more—save shelf space, reduce staff
Just in time use: researchers, clinicians (less browsing, serendipitous retrieval of information).
Enhanced functionality: Want to drill down to needed information quickly, on location, in one place, at time needed.
6 or more years ago at conferences, when you’d put up a sign in booth that your journal was available online, folks would worry aloud that it wouldn’t be in print any more; then there were a couple years of acceptance that print could be easily browsed, but online would be used for archive; now individuals in droves are asking to drop print…they don’t want them lying around making them feel bad… many scholarly journals don’t lend themselves to “reading.”
Database publishing: one-stop shopping talked about earlier
Archive responsibility: $ crunch forcing issue

9. Online only—what to do Plan to unbundle print and online
Identify long-term objectives
Segment subscriber file
Project financial impact
Determine fixed costs, savings (15%, 5-19%, 27%-45%)
Load costs online P&L; incremental on print
Build e-marketing plan
Renewals; new business
Industry support (don’t give up)
Preserve archive
Data conversion files
Technical solutions
Promote self-service
Editorial customization
Manuscript flow
Online customer service 1.
Determine long-term objectives (retain print?)
Segment: inst, indiv, member, non-domestic
2. Savings: 15%; 5%-19%; 27%-45%
Set subscription rates to recover print losses and take into account print savings
Load costs on online P&L; incremental costs on print
Industry support (don’t give up)
Renewals, new business (use your customers)
Preserve archive
Keep conversion files in ready format
Participate in LOCKSS, Journal
Determine fixed costs (no matter circ level)
Print as add-on
Impetus
Time management; Web tools
Customer service
Updating records, renewing online
Editorial
Customized products; online CME
Production
Web-based manuscript tracking systems

10. Factor 4: Serving either research or clinical constituencies, or both
Different information needs
Researchers want seamless search and retrieval of the world’s literature (at no or low cost) to aid in their research pursuits
Clinicians want to pose questions and have them answered reliably and immediately so that they can provide their patients with the best care
Imperative to develop products to serve distinct needs of distinct groups
Research journal: 83% nonUS members choose online only option!
Clinical journal: 73% report never accessing journal online!
Many journals always have had two constituent groups to serve: authors and readers (read: researchers and clinicians)
Researchers—putting together puzzle; clinicians—completed puzzle

11. Serving researchers and clinicians—what to do
Article publishing
Speedy publishing
Online ahead of print
Collected resources
Saved searches
Custom e-alerts
Knowledge environments
Virtual journals
Data supplements
Clinicians
Editorials
Review articles
Drug databases
Guidelines, case mgmt
Evidence-based
Clinical trials
Video procedures
Product development
Online CME
Tabloids
Newsletters
: “magazine” features
Product development
Neurosurgery
BMJ, NEJM
(to retain advertising)
(within journal)

12. Impact 5: “It’s free!” Online information… …is cost-free to produce
Unrealistic expectations
Significant investment in features, hosting
Real costs of editorial development, peer-review
…should be free to access
Open access initiatives: Budapest, PLoS
Reliance on continuing return to organization
Downward pricing pressure
Alternative business models
Tremendous increase in barrier-free access
Long-standing and pervasive ideas: Since the 1980s, scientists and librarians predicted the use of networks to disseminate information (though not the explosive growth), but nobody anticipated the range and quality of information that would be available without payment
Disconnect between staff and management
“Well, let’s just do it online!”
Lack of appreciation for work, resources
Frustration in implementing technology
Getting your message out is not free

13. “It’s free”—what to do
Educate management and customers about costs and value of info technology
Periodically determine how “free” movement fits with your mission
Plan for participation, or exclusion
Abstracts, metadata; cross linking/searching; archive
Costs: development, maintenance, opportunity
Monitor music, movie industry, copyright judgments
Alternative business models to offset impact
Author-based; institution-based
Advertising;sponsorship
Subscription; pay-per-view
Clinical product development
Opportunity costs (PPV, author reprints v NYT)

14. www.kaufmanwills.com Cara S. Kaufman, Partner Alma J. Wills, Partner
Kaufman-Wills Group, LLC
24 Aintree Road
Baltimore, MD 21286
(ph)
(fax)
Selected clients
Am Acad Ped
Am Assoc Immunol
Am Coll Cardiol
Am Coll Radiol
Am Soc Clin Onc
ASPET
ASTRO
Intl Anesth Res Soc
NEJM
Proj Hope/Hlth Affairs
Alma: former President, Periodicals Division, Williams & Wilkins
Cara: former Publisher, Am Heart Assoc Jrnls, The Lancet