0. The Pensions Actuary 2020 Young Members Conference
Keith Poulson
2 December 2003

1. Agenda Where have we come from ? What do we do? What will we be doing?
Demise of traditional work
What else can we do?

2. First Thoughts

3. First Thoughts

4. Where have we come from? Results less precise?
More time on calcs, less on consultancy
Actuary rarely questioned
Very little legislation

5. Where have we come from? Typical work Valuations
Transfer Values / Factors
Sales & Purchases
Scheme Design – FS!

6. What do we do now? Typical work Valuations Transfer Values / Factors
Sales & Purchases
Scheme Design – MP
Accounting Disclosures

7. What’s changed? Far more legislation Schemes are bigger / more mature
Greater computer power /spuracy
Far less discretion

8. What will we be doing in 20 years time?
Valuations
TVs/ Factors
S&P
Accounts
Scheme design
20 Years Ago  
FS
Now
MP
2020 ? ?

9. Demise of traditional work
Less schemes
Managing those left to eventual buyout

10. What will the world be like in 2020?
China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy
The space hotel will have been open for 5 years
There will be more robots than people
Deep hibernation technology will allow people to hibernate for months or even years

11. What will the pensions world be like in 2020?
Virtually no Final Salary Scheme’s open accrual
Schemes predominantly invested in bonds
Schemes fully funded
Mortality risk will be limited

12. What will the pensions world be like in 2020?

13. Advising non FS Schemes
What else can we do?
Share options
DC Consultancy
Healthcare
Advising non FS Schemes
Return of DB?
Communications

14. What to pay and when Where to invest Changes in legislation
DC Consultancy
Scheme DB DC
Risk Taker
Employer
Member
Advice Given
What to pay and when Where to invest Changes in legislation … ?

15. Return of DB? Currently pensions viewed as cost Valued once gone
DC risks?
Demise of DB was removal of discretion
‘New’ DB will have different form

16. Learn from others

17. Barriers to other areas
Competition / We do not have legislative monopoly
Expense
Profile
Need for greater efficiency

18. Conclusions There are many areas we can add value but we need to:
Sell ourselves
Diversify
Increase our profile and reputation
Maintain high standards
Be innovative