1. Electric Cars – Vehicles of the Future?
Patrick Plötz, Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe
SÜD Heidelberg, November 2011

2. Myth: “Electric vehicles are useless – they can’t go far.”

3. Myth: “Electric vehicles are useless – they can’t go far.”
Typical daily driving distances are short.
Most (80%) of day-travels are shorter than 60 km.
Few (8 %) of day-travels are longer than 130 km
Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI
Plug-in-Hybrid
Property
Gasoline vehicle
3 minutes + 2 hours
> 700 km
3 minutes km
Range
Refueling Duration
every day +
When necessary
Every 2 weeks
Refueling Frequency
Battery electric vehicle
hours
< 150 km
Every 3 days or 30% every day
Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long distances
Electric vehicles

4. Myth: “Electric vehicles can help integrating renewable energies, but they need so much electricity.”

5. Myth: “Electric vehicles can help integrating renewable energies, but they need so much electricity.”
Take 1 Million electric vehicles,
giving on average 10 kWh = 10 GWh = 10 minutes of the average German electricity need
Loading with 3,7 kW each = 3,7 GW = 2.4% of installed German power (155 GW in 2009)
Electricity need of 1 million vehicles:
Driving km per year (German average) and using 16 kWh/100 km = 3 TWh/a = 0.5% of annual German electricity use
Large fleet of electric vehicles offers some power but small capacity
Source: BDEW, Fraunhofer ISI
Drawing: Heyko Stöber

6. Myth: “Electric vehicles need public charging points.”

7. Myth: “Electric vehicles need public charging points.”
Charging at home: cheap & easy
The majority of car users has a fixed place for his/her car (either a garage or a place at home)
Even in larger cities (> inhabitants) only some people (22% in Germany) have no fixed parking place
Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long distances
To start a mass market, no expensive infrastructure needed
Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI

8. Electric cars – vehicles of the future?
Overview
Electric cars – vehicles of the future? 1
Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2
Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3
Past and Present of electric vehicles 4
The Future of eletric vehicles 5
Conclusion

9. A growing mobility demand faces limited fossile resources
Growing demand for oil cannot be covered sustainably
Source: Shell, WBCSD

10. To achieve Europe‘s climate targets, a drastic reduction in transport CO2-emissions is needed
The EU‘s long term goal is to reduce GHG emissions by 80%
Power production and road transport have to become almost CO2-free
This is impossible with efficiency gains in combustion engines
New technologies and concepts are clearly needed.
Electric vehicles powered by renewable energies can contribute significantly
Source:

11. Electric vehicles can reduce emissions and noise in your local environment
Electric vehicles locally produce less noise and emissions
They create a calmer and cleaner local environment
But their production is very energy consuming
Source: Fraunhofer ISI

12. Electric cars – vehicles of the future?
Overview
Electric cars – vehicles of the future? 1
Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2
Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3
Past and Present of electric vehicles: How do they work? What do they cost? Do we need special charging stations? Are they “green”? 4
The Future of electric vehicles 5
Conclusion

13. The first road vehicle achieving a speed of more than 100 km/h
The French electric vehicle
La jamais contente with 105 km/h in 1899

14. Short History of electric vehicles
Invention of electric vehicle 1834
Large market shares around 1900
First hybrid by Ferdinand Porsche in 1899
Gasoline vehicles cheaper and faster from 1920 until today
Renewed interest in 1980s after oil crises
Today‘s batteries allow longer ranges
Thomas Edison with electric car in 1913
Sources: Chan 2007, wikipedia

15. German vehicle stock in 2011
80 % of vehicles are passenger cars: 30 million gasoline, 11 million diesel
Currently, 2300 Electric vehicles and 40,000 hybrids
Vehicles in Germany
Source: Kraftfahrtbundesamt (2011),

16. How does an electric vehicle work?
Battery electric vehicle: Small number of main components:
Electric motor
Large battery
AC/DC converter
Electronics...
No oil or fuel tank
No exhaust system (tail pipe etc.)
Hybrid electric vehicle:
Small combustion engine
Small fuel tank
Electronics
Fuel cell electric vehicle has an additional tank and fuel cell
Electric vehicle ≈ several wheels and a plug
Source: Bosch AG

17. The energy density of current batteries sets limits to the use of electric vehicles
Quelle: GM, 2009

18. Electric vehicles produced in 2010
A few manufacturers are already producing electric vehicles
Numbers are really tiny compared to world vehicle production of 78 million units in 2010

19. When can we buy eletcric vehicles?
Alternative fuel vehicles already available or announced for 2011 – by major manufacturers in the German market
Manufacturer
Hybrid
Gas- hybrid
Plug-in Hybrid
Battery electric
Fuel cell vehicle
Total
MERCEDES 5 1 4 11
TOYOTA 3 2 9 VW 8
RENAULT 7
BMW 6
HYUNDAI
CITROEN
PEUGEOT
AUDI
NISSAN 20 29 57
Simple hybrids already available
Many battery electric vehicles underway
Only some plug-in hybrids announced

20. Electric vehicles come in a broad variety
Sports cars
Plug-in hybrid passenger car
Small electric vehicles
soon
Battery LDVs
Off-road duty vehicle
today
Plug-in hybrid LDV
Elektroroller

21. How much does an electric vehicle cost?
Example for the total life cycle costs for a battery electric vehicle with average annual German driving range (14000 km, no tax, 2015):
Long driving distances required to make BEVs economically attractive
Battery and fuel costs are the main drivers for total cost of ownership (TCO)
Fuel
Vehicle purchase
Battery costs
Maintenance
Costs in cent per kilometer
Quelle: Fraunhofer ISI

22. Support by the German government on electric mobility
Political actions:
Non-financial incentives
No direct purchase support
Research funding: 2 million €
No car tax (below 50 gCO2/km)
low tax for commercial cars
Target: 10% of governmental vehicles
Use of bus lanes for EVs
Free city entry
1 million by 2020
Quelle: Regierungsprogramm Elektromobilität 2011

23. In the beginning, electric vehicles will mainly target a niche market
Selection of Propulsion Technology
(in relation to mileage and share of city traffic)
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
EVs only in some segments profitable
Attractive first user segments
Commuters
Second-car users
Full time employees from areas with less than 100,000 inhab.
Potential of up to 4% of car users (2015) in existing infrastructure - equivalent to 1.6 mn.
Trip Length Restrictions
Battery Electric
Vehicle
Annual Mileage (in km)
Utilization
Restrictions
Internal Combustion
Engine
Share of City Traffic
Source: Own calculations

24. %
EVs are the most efficient propulsion technology and can reduce CO2-emissions in transport
Efficiency and Emissions of Different Propulsion Technologies
Emissions in GHG-Equivalents (in g/km)
Efficiency (Well-to-Wheel Analysis) 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% 50
100
250
300
350
150
200
Coal-to-Liquid
ICE
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Bio-diesel (RME)
Biofuels
Less emissions
More efficient
Battery Electric Vehicle
(Wind)
Plug-In Hybrid
(EU mix)
BEV
Note: BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle; RME: Raps-Methyl-Ester
Source: Own calculations and LBST

25. How „green“ are electric vehicles?
The production of batteries for electric vehicles is very energy intense
Depending on the electricity used, additional CO2 emissions from electricity generation need to be taken into account
With electricity from renewable sources drastic reduction of CO2 emissions are possible
Electricity generation
Vehicle production
Battery production
Additional battery
Electric vehicles
Conventional vehicles
GHG potential in tons CO2e

26. Electric cars – vehicles of the future?
Overview
Electric cars – vehicles of the future? 1
Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2
Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3
Past and Present of electric vehicles: How do they work? What do they cost? Do we need special charging stations? Are they “green”? 4
The Future of electric vehicles 5
Conclusion

27. Market scenarios for Germany
Pluralism
Szenarios I/IV
Referenzszenario
Energiekonzept
Dominance

28. Economy of propulsion system
The future of alternative fuels – various technologies for different applications
Vehicle weight
challenges
high
2nd generation biofuels
transportation
Long range public transport
Fuel cell vehicles
Public transport
Economy of fuel
Plug-in hybrids
City LDVs
Everyday use
Battery vehicle
2nd car
Economy of propulsion system
acceptance
Energy density
Electro cycle
safety
low
distance
Short trips (city)
Long trips (highway)

29. Depending on market penetration, charging infrastructure has to change
Grid Integration with Increasing Market Penetration
Charging Infrastructure
Innovators´ Market
Niche Market (e.g. commuters, business clients)
Market Penetration
Mass Market
Time
Grid Integration
Infrastructure
Norms and standards
Mainly private infrastructure
Selective public infrastructure to support early adoption
Smart Metering
Expansion of semi- public charging infrastr.
Smart Grids
Control
Time-of-use rates
Demand Side Management (Dynamic rates)
Bi-directional connection
System Services
Load shift (negative supply of balancing power)
Load shift and active load leveling
Source: Own visualization

30. Conclusions 1 2 3 What are electric vehicles?
Electric vehicles use electric motors and batteries and/or fuel cells
Many forms of hybrid vehicles are possible 2
How much do electric vehicles cost?
They are more expensive to buy but cheaper to drive than current conventional vehicles
Special charging stations are required later 3
Are electric vehicle green?
Electric vehicles can significantly reduce global and local emissions, but only when charged from renewable energy sources
Their production is very energy intense
Are electric vehicles the vehicles of the future?
They can play an important role in transport and in reduction of CO2 emissions
Other vehicle technologies can be become important too, especially fuel cell vehicles

31. Thank you Special thanks to Martin Wietschel Fabian Kley Till Gnann
Wolfgang Schade
Thank you for listening!
References:
Biere, D.; Dallinger, D.; Wietschel, M.: Ökonomische Analyse der Erstnutzer-von Elektrofahrzeugen, Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 02/2009,
Wietschel, M., Kley, F. und Dallinger, D. : Eine Bewertung der Ladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge, Zeitschrift für die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette Automobilwirtschaft, Bd. 12 (3), S. 33–41.
Kley, F., Dallinger, D. und Wietschel, M. : Assessment of future charging infrastructure, International Advanced Mobility Forum, 9-10 März 2010, S. 1–7. Genf.
Kley, F., Entwicklung und Bewertung einer Strategie für den Aufbau einer Beladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge auf Basis des Fahrverhaltens. Dissertation . Karlsruhe, 2011.