1. I-15 North Phase 4 Preliminary DRAFT CRA Results July 2014

2. Contents of this Presentation
Base Schedule (Flowchart)
Base Schedule by Flowchart Activity
Base Cost with Uncertainty by Flowchart Activity
Allocated Overhead
Escalation Assumptions
Risk Register Count
Risk Analysis Results
S-Curve Project Cost
70th Percentile Risk Profile – Stacked Bar
Top Cost Risks – Tornado Chart
S-Curve Completion Date
Top Schedule Risks – Tornado Chart

3. Base Schedule

4. Base Schedule by Flowchart Activity
Activity ID
Activity
Start Date
End Date
Duration
400
Phase 4 Preliminary Engineering - Scoping
10/1/14
3/31/15
5.98
410
Phase 4 Environmental Re-Evaluation
4/1/15
3/31/16
12.02
420
Phase 4 Right-of-Way / Utilities
4/1/16
12/31/17
21.03
425
UPRR Railroad Coordination
430
Phase 4 Final Design
33.05
440
Phase 4 Construction
1/1/18
12/31/21
48.00

5. Base Cost with Uncertainty by Flowchart Activity
Activity ID
Activity
Total (CN + CE + PE + ROW)
Low
Base
High
400
Phase 4 Preliminary Engineering - Scoping
$1,900,000
$2,000,000
$2,200,000
410
Phase 4 Environmental Re-Evaluation $0
420
Phase 4 Right-of-Way / Utilities
$2,495,000
$2,775,000
$3,055,000
425
UPRR Railroad Coordination
$90,000
$100,000
$120,000
430
Phase 4 Final Design
$9,849,184
$11,674,076
$13,305,322
440
Phase 4 Construction
$142,043,332
$168,331,329
$191,832,488
Total
$156,377,516
$184,880,405
$210,512,810

6. I-15 North (Phase 4) Allocated Overhead
Support Costs per Month of Calendar Delay
Activity Number
Activity Name
Agency
Contractor
Total
400
Phase 4 Preliminary Engineering - Scoping
$166,667
430
Phase 4 Final Design
$176,880
440
Phase 4 Construction
$226,996
$259,424
$486,420

7. Escalation Assumptions
Escalation Rates
Year
Construction PE
ROW
2014
3.19%
3.41%
4.02%
2015
3.33%
2.96%
4.12%
2016
3.72%
2.83%
4.35%
2017
3.94%
2.73%
4.58%
2018
3.80%
3.13%
4.75%
2019
4.01%
2.90%
4.83%
2020
4.05%
2.75%
5.28%
2021
4.28%
4.11%
2022 +
4.51%
2.74%
2.94%
Note: Escalation forecasts were developed utilizing a combination of national and Nevada data. Forecasts for Engineering were based on the growth rate of civil engineering salaries, ROW on the change in real estate prices, and Construction on changes in various materials and construction labor indices, such as, concrete, steel, asphalt, and machinery.

8. I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Register Count
NDOT RBS Category
I-15 North (Phase 4)
Active
Inactive
Retired
Total
Environmental & Hydraulics 5 2 7
Right-of-Way 4
Utilities 1
Design / PS&E 6 14
Structures & Geotech
Railroad
Partnerships and Stakeholders
Management / Funding
Contracting and Procurement 3
Construction 30 13 44

9. I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Analysis Results

10. I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Analysis Results

11. I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Analysis Results

12. I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Analysis Results

13. I-15 North (Phase 4) Risk Analysis Results