1. SSR2014: Basic concepts and issues in development
LECTURE 7a: Population

2. Objectives:
To examine the relationship between population growth and key resources needed for human survival;
To explain the population debates in the context of Malthusian Principle, and Boserupian thesis;
To describe the key elements of the demographic transition model;
Examines the costs and benefits of population growth

3. Population growth
The question of the rate of population growth and its relationship to the availability of food and vital natural resources has been debated for centuries.
Different views:
Pessimistic view: Population growth outstripping food supply?
Optimistic view: Population growth as the engine for development?

4. Malthus’s principle of population
Thomas Robert Malthus – in An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) predicted that population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person.
A highly pessimistic scenario of population growing more rapidly than food supply:
Focus on the idea that food supply increases in a linear fashion , while population grow exponentially.
Malthus advocated the need for ‘preventive’ and ‘positive’ checks on population growth.

5. MALTHUS’S PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION
Preventive check (affect the birth rate):
Marrying at later age (moral restraint)
Birth control
Homosexuality
Positive check (increase the death rate):
Disease
War
Disaster
Famine

6. Malthusian principle contd.
Malthus also argued that the tension between population and resources was the fundamental cause of misery for much of the humanity:
Overpopulation & its effects
Carrying capacity of the environment
Optimum population size
Natural causes, moral restraints & vice could check population growth.

7. Boserup view (1960’s)
Ester Boserup – an economist - offered more positive perspective on the relationship between people, environment and resources (1965, 1993)
Argued that population growth and increasing population density can be key factors in generating innovation and intensification in traditional food production systems.
Boserup suggested that, if the rate of population is not too rapid, population will over time adapt their environment and cultivation strategies.

8. Boserupian vs Malthusian views
Boserup viewpoint has gained popularity in recent years – supported by empirical evidence of considerable capacity of indigenous peoples to raise farm productivity.
Technological advancement lead to better food production (agricultural machinery, pesticides, fertilisers etc)
Malthusian is proved to be FALSE.

9. Other factors
Better contraception methods.
Better health services.

10. Population change & Its Indicators
Youtube video: 2.33 minutes
World Population Growth

11. Population change
Modern expansion of the world’s population only started in the 18th Century - with slow decline of the death rate in Europe and North America.
Population growth the accelerated steadily in the 20th Century
Have been particularly rapid in developing countries since 1950.

12. WORLD POPULATION

14. Understanding population statistics
Changes in population rates over time are affected by a number of factors, essentially controlled by the changing relationship between birth and death rates.
Crude birth rate – total number of birth per 1000 of the population (per year)
e.g. UK and USA with 11 and 14 respectively in 2005; compared to 49 and 46 in Mali and Sierra Leone respectively.
Crude death rate – total number of death per 1000 of the population
UK & USA = 10 and 8 in 2005; Mali & Sierra Leone = 17 and 23 respectively.

15. Indicators of the quality of life & Level of development
Infant mortality:
Measures the number of deaths of infants under 1 year old per 1000 live birth.
Reflect general living conditions, health & nutritional status of pregnant mothers.
E.g statistic; Sweden (3); UK (5); Sierra Leone (165)

16. Indicator: contd. Life expectancy
Also reflects general living standard, healthcare and nutrition.
Tremendous inequalities between developed and developing countries.
e.g. child born in Japan is expected to live for 82 years, but only 41 in Sierra Leone.

17. Demographic transition model

18. Demographic Transition
A dramatic & relatively sudden transformation in population growth resulting in a combination of increases and decreases in one or more of its vital component.
Prior to colonial era, growth rate didn’t vary significantly between regions worldwide (growth was equally slow and erratic).
This period was followed by population explosion.
Then another period of slow growth.

20. Demographic Transition:

21. Growth Rate Factors influencing the growth rates: Fertility rate
Mortality rate
Natural growth (birth –death)
Migration?
How does modernization and urbanization affect growth rate?

22. Population growth & development

23. POPULATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Population growth against a given amount of resources to a certain point in time in economic history has posed the challenge of feeding extra mouths.
Two views on the relationship: demand and supply.
Demand: the growth of population increases the demand for food, services, and resources.
Supply: the availability of more labour to produce more goods and services.

24. Benefits of population growth
A growing population enlarges the size of the market by raising aggregate demand.
A rising population supplies more labour for employment.
If labour supply is a constant on growth, an expansion of the labour force will raise output and growth.

25. Cost of population growth
In an economy with stagnant total income and rising population, the average standard of living could only worsen.
Positive effects of population growth on output growth could only be obtained if labour could be productively employed with the available resources. Problem with LDC – lack of capital – physical and social.
Arise in labour supply leads to greater unemployment if the economy is not favorable.

26. Rise in population lowers the human-land or human- resources
Rise in population lowers the human-land or human- resources. A static, backward economy without any technical progress could only greater poverty with growing population pressure on available resources.
A high level of population or its rapid growth creates additional demands on social capital (housing, education, health services).
If the supply is inelastic in LDCs then a rising population with an increase in demand could lead to inflation. In order to cope with the problem, many LDCs import food grains from abroad and this causes an important drain on valuable foreign exchange which could have been used for better purposes.

28. Cost of pop growth: contd
Rapid growth of population leads to a high dependency ratio, i.e. the proportion of non-working to working population. Young age aggravates the problems of food supply and employment creation.
High population growth rates and/or a high level of population could lead to pollution and many environmental problems.
A rising population in a fairly static and poor economy could aggravate the problems of inequalities in income distribution. On average, poor families tend to be larger than rich families. Per capita income is lower in poor income groups.

29. Summary
Population growth – both pessimistic and optimistic views –in the context of population and resources.
Population change and its indicators.
Demographic transition model.
Costs and benefits of population growth.

30. Reference:
State of World Population 2007 (online report): ction.html
Weinstein, J & Pillai, V.K (2001) Demography: The Science of Population
Bosworth, B & Burtless, G (1997) Brudget Crunch: Population Aging in Rich Countries
Demographic Transition in Asia & its consequences (refer to link in Morpheus)