1. Commodity Market Outlook 2016 Mumbai. May 26, 2016
IMC-ERTF Seminar on
Commodity Market Outlook 2016 Mumbai. May 26, 2016
Sugar Market Outlook
G. CHANDRASHEKHAR

2. Global sugar market fundamentals are tightening
After 5 years of surplus, a small deficit this year
Prices have responded – from 12c/lb six months ago, prices have moved to 17c/lb now; from April 20% increase
Rising crude oil prices support sugar via the ethanol route
India – world second largest producer and largest consumer - biggest upside risk for global sugar market
Indian sugar production has steadily declined to 24 ml t in
Open market prices have spurted since January and are currently appx Rs 35,000 per ton
Upside price risk to Rs 40,000
Demand to kick-in early this year with Ramzaan early June
production may dip further
Sugar mills sitting on stocks, anticipating still higher prices
Govt removed all sops on sugar export
Stock limit imposed on traders
Import duty may be waived
Speculative interest rising globally
So, tighten your seat belt and be ready for a bumpy ride
IMC-ERTF predicted sugar price rise as far back as January 2016 and sent a memorandum to policymakers