1. Future Technologies and Fuels for the Trucking Sector
Marshall Miller
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, Davis
General Services Conference
April 25, 2017

2. Medium- to Long-Term Truck Emissions Issues
Criteria Emissions (NOX and Particulates)
Some CA Regions don’t meet EPA 2023 and 2032 air quality standards (e.g. ozone)
California State Implementation Plan petitions EPA to adopt very strict NOX standard (0.02 g/bhph)
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)
CA governor’s goals – 50% reduction in petroleum use in vehicles by 2030
Climate change goal – 80% reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2050 (NOTE: goal is for all sectors)

3. Truck Technologies Truck Technology Benefits Barriers
Conventional Diesel
Available, low cost
High emissions (NOX, PM, GHGs)
Advanced Diesel (hybrid, light weighting, low rolling resistance tires, truck skirts, etc.)
High fuel economy
Natural Gas (CNG or LNG)
Low NOX, PM
Low fuel cost
High GHGs, Somewhat higher capital cost, fuel availability
Battery Electric (BEV)
Very low emissions, Zero from vehicle
High cost, low availability, Lack of fueling infrastructure,
Low range
Fuel Cell
High cost, low availability, Lack of fueling infrastructure

4. Truck Fuels Truck Fuel Benefits Barriers Diesel Available, cheap
High emissions (NOX, PM, GHGs)
Renewable diesel
Low GHG emissions
Higher cost, Limited production volume, High emissions (NOX, PM)
Natural Gas (CNG or LNG)
Low NOX, PM
Low fuel cost
High GHGs, Somewhat higher capital cost, fuel availability
Renewable Natural Gas (RNG)
Low NOX, PM, GHGs
Limited production volume, High cost
Electricity (BEV)
Very low emissions, Zero from vehicle, Low fuel cost
Lack of fueling infrastructure,
Low range
Hydrogen (Fuel Cell)
Very low emissions, Zero from vehicle
High cost, Lack of fueling infrastructure

5. Truck Scenarios
Scenarios specify the percentage of new vehicle sales for each truck type (e.g. long-haul, short-haul, delivery, buses, HD pickups, vocational) and technology for each year through 2050
BAU (business as usual)
Meet phase I and phase II standards for fuel economy
No advanced technologies (BEV, fuel cell)
No renewable diesel or RNG)
ZEV
Aggressive fleet penetration for fuel cell and BEVs
ZEV + biofuels
Fleet penetration roughly half of ZEV scenario for fuel cell and BEVs
Renewable diesel contribution grows to 50% by 2050 5

6. Truck Vehicle Types Truck Type Technologies Description / Example
Miles/day Operating days/yr
MPDGE (2015 MY) EMFAC
Long Haul
DieselLNG CI, Fuel Cell (FC)
Class 8 sleeper cab
287 miles/day
312 days/yr
6.6
Short haul
Diesel, hybrid, CNG, Fuel Cell, BEV
Class 8 non sleeper cab
140 miles/day
6.5
MD urban
Diesel, Gas, diesel hybrid, CNG, FC, BEV
Delivery truck
(UPS) 80
312
8.6
Transit Bus
Diesel, hybrid, CNG, FC, BEV
150
327
4.6
Other Bus
Coach Greyhound 90
292
HD pickup
Diesel, Gas, CNG, Hybrid, FC, BEV, PHEV
Ford F250 70 18
MD vocational
Bucket Truck 20
8.4
HD vocational
145
6.7 6

7. 80% reduction in Heavy-Duty GHG Emissions by 2050 Top: ZEV scenario, Bottom: ZEVs plus biofuels7

8. Long Haul Truck Scenarios8

9. Long Haul Truck Fleet Stock9

10. HD Pickups Scenarios 10

11. HD Pickups Fleet Stock
ZEV Scenario: ZEVs ~60% of fleet, ZEV + Biofuels Scenario: ZEVS ~30% 11

12. 12

13. Total Truck GHG Emissions
ZEV: Low CI values, 5% diesel biofuels
2050 ZEV gCO2e/gge: Diesel ~ 14,000, H2 ~ 2,000, elec ~ 13

14. GHG Emissions Reductions by Scenario
GHG Reduction in 2050 from 2010 (%)
BAU (frozen efficiency and CI) 32
BAU -8
ZEV
-48
ZEV + Biofuels
-47 14

15. Yearly Total Cost Difference (BAU – ZEV)
2050: Diesel = $5.37/gal, H2 = $6.23/kg (truck stop) $7.74/kg (fleet) 15

16. Yearly Total Cost Difference (BAU – ZEV)
2050: Diesel = $3.50/gal, H2 = $6.23/kg (truck stop) $7.74/kg (fleet) 16

17. Thank You