1. The Impact of Automation, Connected Vehicles and Smart Technologies on Commercial Real Estate
Wes Guckert, PTP
President & CEO

2. To view this video, please visit https://youtu.be/wf1xR2kX3rU

3. To view this video, please visit https://youtu.be/8Jyj8LJJdK4

4. Moving FAST!
Disruption and transformation of cities will be enormous!

5. HOWEVER - Complete adoption not until 30 years from now

6. Uncertainty is HIGH plus issues hacking, ethical, responsibility…?

7. Constant jay walking stopping AVs

8. Self-Driving & Connected Vehicles Impact on Cities & Municipalities

9. Substantial reduction of revenue for municipalities
DUI
Speeding
Red Light Running

10. Demand for TODs may reduce
Demand for suburban residences could increase
Better schools
Expectation of safety in the suburbs

11. Less expensive properties w/o transit may become more valuable

12. Existing infrastructure vs NEW – better use of roads without widening

14. Long commutes easier in rural areas

15. Substantial reduction in pedestrian and auto accidents

16. Video Removed Hands waiving out of a sunroof of a car while it’s driving a twisty road.

17. To view this video, please visit https://youtu
To view this video, please visit Introducing the self-driving bicycle in the Netherlands

18. Roads and parking consume 40% of the urban land area
256 Million Cars Registered
Roads and parking consume 40% of the urban land area

19. At least 4 spots for EVERY CAR in the U.S. 1 Billion spaces

20. fewer cars with self-driving
Imagine…
fewer cars with self-driving

21. 75 Billion SF of space to become available!

22. The impact on land values is COULD be deflationary

23. Some Commodity retail will suffer… grocery stores, etc
Some Commodity retail will suffer… grocery stores, etc. Depends on area served

24. groceries <60 minutes
Micro deliveries using AVs
groceries <60 minutes

25. Today…cars sit 95% of the time

26. Cheaper to pay for time you ACTUALLY USE!

27. $0.15- $0.30 with self-driving/ride-hailing
Now $0.75
$0.15- $0.30 with self-driving/ride-hailing

28. Utilization rate of cars can go…
with self-driving cars

29. 2015
30% Utilization
Uber Las Vegas
NOW
60-70% Utilization

30. IMPACTS OF TNCs NOW
Taxi Rides DOWN 60%
Bus Rides DOWN 15%
Parking $$ FLAT
Remote Park DOWN 50%
Congestion, also NYC
Curb space issues
Drop off safety

31. Ride Hailing
BUSINESS TRAVELERS

32. So far ONLY 15% of all adults have used ride-hailing services
In S.F. trips in SOVs dropping dramatically
So far ONLY 15% of all adults have used ride-hailing services

33. By 2021, North America alone – projected 6 million TNC drivers

34. 4 years later… 14 Million rides MONTHLY!
Started in 2012
4 years later… 14 Million rides MONTHLY!

35. Investments in TNCs 2015 2014 2013 $ 11.5 BILLION $ 5.6 BILLION
$500 Million

36. With the exception of a driver, this could be an AV in the future

37. Another 12-15 passenger self-driving bus
Dateline: Las Vegas
Another passenger self-driving bus

38. Now a FLEET of AVs provides access to jobs, school, shopping --- at a fraction of the cost of owning a car

39. New mobility options for…
Blind
Physically challenged
Elderly
School Children
Car Pooling

40. Garage Design Discussion
NOW 8 ft. – 10 ft. clear height
INCREASE to 17 ft. – 18 ft. for repurposing

41. 9 ft. – 10 ft. spaces down to 7 ft. – 7. 5 ft
9 ft. – 10 ft. spaces down to 7 ft. – 7.5 ft. another 20% in land savings

42. With self parking cars

43. RESULT =Cost of urban construction could drop by 10% - 20% Could encourage more development

44. Summary of IMPACT on Real Estate
Please pay attention if you own commercial property!

45. You “get” VALUE created by reduced NEED for parking spaces!

46. Think about the impact of 50% fewer parking spaces – how you would use that land

47. A 1 million sf center with 5.0 parking ratio - 5000 spaces
Now reduce the parking by 50% or 2500 spaces
frees up 30 acres of land- 5 Cap Rate !!

48. High quality malls – winners!

49. Insure longer Drop-Off areas for car sharing – Uber, Lyft, etc.
TOO SMALL AREA
Insure longer Drop-Off areas for car sharing – Uber, Lyft, etc.

50. Similar to this example, Westfield is going to triple or quadruple the Drop-Off space

51. Insurance
Auto Parts
Hotels
Airlines

52. Mobility Drivers
Public Transportation
Energy & Petroleum
Parking Garages /Lots

53. Office Space
Car Manufacturing

54. Of course, self-driving long-haul trucks will be able to deliver goods all hours of the night
…a POSITIVE IMPACT on cities

56. To view this video, please visit https://youtu. be/Qb0Kzb3haK8
To view this video, please visit OTTO self-driving Trucks

57. Amount of smaller spaces – dwindling i. e. 35 miles I-95 N
Amount of smaller spaces – dwindling i.e. 35 miles I-95 N. of Baltimore – little space available

59. Ramp up for trucks to 2nd level

60. Tractor Trailers can access each Level- Japan

61. Empty Stores will be used for small, close in distribution hubs.

62. RETHINK EVERYTHING!

63. People need to be able to get in and out of cars.
Curb space in urban environments will be in high demand.
Basic improvements will be needed to upgrade road systems.

64. Buy LOTS of paint! - curbs, lane markers, and signage will need changes to bring on an autonomous future.
Decisions about parking will have great ramifications in terms of how we use land.
Urban planning and transportation cannot be divorced anymore.

65. “Uber yourself before you get Kodaked!”

66.
@Wes_Guckert