1. Student Generation from Various Housing Unit Types
Estimating
Student Generation from
Various Housing Unit Types
Virginia Association of
School Business Officials
November 4, 2016

2. About Fairfax City 6.3 square miles 24,000 population 4 Schools
Shared Services Agreement with Fairfax County;
City School Board owns the facilities
Small jurisdictions need to be creative

3. What We Do
City Staff examines enrollment trends and student yield ratios annually:
We have calculated city-specific yields since 2011;
For various housing types and subdivisions (more detail than otherwise available);
Helps us calculate future facility & fiscal needs.

4. What We Do Why We Do This:
Ratios available from larger School Districts vary greatly between areas:
It is helpful to have customized numbers reflective of local City conditions.
Customized student ratios help the City project student generation from new housing;
Input into City fiscal impact review.

5. What We Do Annual Timeline:
“Official” enrollment numbers taken Sept. 30;
Detailed demographic data work takes a few weeks/months (FCPS);
City gets data in December / January;
Analysis finished in February.
Today we’re looking at 2015 data!

6. Enrollment 2015-16 Enrollment Providence ES Fairfax HS Lanier MS
Daniels Run ES
School
City
Students
County
TOTAL
Fairfax HS
955
1,458
2,413
Lanier MS
432
563
995
Providence ES
711
249
960
Daniels Run ES
717 8
725
Enrollment

7. Student Generation
Yield Ratios calculated annually (students per housing unit):
Housing Unit Type
Fairfax City
AVERAGE
Fairfax County
Single-Family Detached
0.408
0.530
Townhouse
0.242
0.441
Multifamily (garden style)
0.336
0.325
Multifamily (mid/high rise)
0.078
0.100
County averages for most recently available year.

8. Differences between types of subdivision and year built.
Student Generation
0.415
0.366
0.373
Differences between types of subdivision and year built.
0.306
0.256
0.152
0.048
Detached
Townhouse
Condo
Apartment
Established
Recent
Established
Recent
Established
Recent
Housing units in these categories tend to share similar characteristics.

9. Student Generation …50 years ago 0.94 Then 0.41 0.39 0.31 Now Then Now
Detached Homes
Multifamily

10. Student Generation Detached/Duplex Neighborhoods: Yield Ratio
Dark Green: Established Subdivisions
Light Green: Newer Subdivisions
Yield Ratio

11. Student Generation Townhouse Neighborhoods: Yield Ratio Yield Ratio
Dark Blue: Established Subdivisions
Light Blue: Newer Subdivisions
Yield Ratio

12. Student Generation Multifamily Complexes: Multifamily Complexes:
Yield Ratio
Red: Apartments
Pink: Condominiums
Multifamily Complexes:
Yield Ratio
Red: Apartments
Pink: Condominiums
Yield Ratio

13. Potential Future Residential Development:
360
Apartments
replacing 110
Potential Future Residential Development:
Known potential projects as of Nov., 2016
250 Apts. &
50 TH’s
400
Apartments
400
Apartments
392
Apartments A
467 Apts. &
108 Townhouses P
403
Apartments P A 80
Condos P
387 Apts. &
22 Townhouses
replacing 38 Apts A F A A
94 Condos &
38 Townhouses
replacing 110 Apts P A A P F
Approved
Filed
Potential A P F 40
Townhouses
* Potential projects included for discussion purposes. Complete applications have not been filed, and have not been considered by City Council.
MULTIFAMILY
TOWNHOUSES
DETACHED HOUSES
COLOR KEY:
(#s) indicate # of units. A
258
Apartments 12
Detached 25
Townhouses 15
Townhouses

14. Common Characteristics:
New Development
Will new apartments generate many students?
Proposed apts. are a different style:
Differs
from
existing
complexes
Common Characteristics:
5 - 6 stories
Minimal Open Space
Internal Parking
Smaller Units

15. New Development
5 Reasons why Apartments WILL generate many new students:
Changing Housing Preferences: People choosing to raise families in multifamily units – even in affluent areas.
Rental Preference: More households are renting by choice: They can afford to buy, but don’t.
Immigration: Families from other countries can view US apartments as spacious & well-suited for families.
Millennials: Value indoor spaces & proximity to amenities.
Transiency: Many people move to No. Va. for temporary gov’t/military/contractor jobs.

16. New Development
5 Reasons why Apartments WILL NOT generate many new students:
Temporary Economic Impact: Housing preference changes partly due to unstable economy. If economy stabilizes, trends may reverse.
Immigration: Many aspire to detached houses, not just apartments.
Millennials: Preferences may change as the generation ages.
Physical Details: Characteristics of apt. buildings can lead to variations in occupant types.
Condos: Condos w/ high rates of ownership tend to generate fewer students.

17. New Development … but we still need to estimate student enrollment!
Here is what we’ve done:
Find recently constructed examples: Multifamily complexes built in the last years:
Similar size of buildings
Similar price points
Similar density (i.e., open space)
Similar unit mix (i.e., watch out for apts w/ mostly 1-bedroom units!)

18. New Development With no examples in our City:
We worked with Fairfax Co. Public Schools to analyze student ratios from nearby areas:
For smaller school districts, cooperation is key
Possibility of an informal consortium to share ideas & experiences… pooling resources.
Very helpful for smaller jurisdictions
in exploring new ideas/strategies!

19. New Development
We focused on newer apartment buildings near Fairfax City.
Provides solid estimates student generation.
Defensibility!
Camden Monument Pl.
Built: 2007
Units: 368
Students: 36 (0.10)
Ridgewood
Built: 2010
Units: 292
Students: 39 (0.13)
Ridgewood II
Built: 2012
Units: 191
Students: 29 (0.15)
Dwell
Built: 2007
Units: 250
Students: 27 (0.11)
Falls at Flint Hill
Built: 2008
Units: 246
Students: 34 (0.14)
Average:
165 students / 1,347 units
0.122 ratio

20. New Development
Estimated student generation estimates for new housing units:
Housing Unit
Type
Yield
Ratio
Methodology
Detached
0.366
Ratio for newer Detached units
Townhouse
0.229
Avg. of newer and established townhouse units
Apartment
0.122
Nearby Comparables (newer units)
Condominium
½ to ⅔ of Apartment average

21. New Development Of course, nothing’s ever that easy…
Small changes can mean big differences.
Be careful to account for differences in geography, school district & other details!
Enrollment #s change quickly – these numbers need to be updated at least once every 3 years.
Expect these numbers to be disputed.

22. New Development Questions or Follow-up: Eric Forman City of Fairfax
(703)
…always available to talk!