1. Overview of the trends in reducing HIV transmission and incidence
Peter Ghys, UNAIDS

2. OVERVIEW
INTRODUCTION
NEW INFECTIONS, , GLOBALLY
New HIV infections, ADULTS (age 15+) IN REGIONS AND COUNTRIES
HIV transmission rates (%), ADULTS (age 15+)
SWAZILAND INCIDENCE rates (%), ADULTS, 2011 AND 2016
CONCLUSION

3. INTRODUCTION

4. No specific target for transmission rate
UN (2016 HLM) 75% reduction in new infections between 2010 and 2020, to below 500,000
No specific target for transmission rate
Williams et al: incidence rate of 0.1 % per year (for South Africa)

5. Projected annual number of new HIV infections globally,
Fast-Track vs business as usual, 2010–2030

6. IMPACT FROM SEVERAL PROGRAMMES
Treatment ( )
Condom programming
VMMC
PrEP
Key populations, including harm reduction
PMTCT
Cash transfers
“Enablers”

7. NEW INFECTIONS, 1990-2016, GLOBALLY

8. NEW HIV INFECTIONS AMONG ALL AGES, GLOBAL, 1990-2016, and 2020 target
Source: UNAIDS Global AIDS Update, 217
*The 2020 target is fewer than new HIV infections, equivalent to a 75% reduction since 2010.

9. New HIV infections, children (ages 0‒14), global, 1990–2016, and 2020 target
Source: UNAIDS 2017 estimates.
New HIV infections target
Number of new HIV infections

10. NEW HIV INFECTIONS AMONG ADULTS, GLOBAL, 1990-2016, and 2020 target
Source: UNAIDS Global AIDS Update, 217
*The 2020 target is fewer than new HIV infections, equivalent to a 75% reduction since 2010.
New HIV infections target
Number of new HIV infections

11. New HIV infections, ADULTS (age 15+) IN REGIONS AND COUNTRIES

12. New HIV infections, ADULTS (ages 15+), BY REGION, 1990–2016,
AND % DECLINE
Eastern europe and
central asia
Eastern and southern
africa
Asia and the pacific
caribbean
Latin america
Middle east and north
western and central
WESTERN AND CENTRAL EUROPE
AND NORTH AMERICA
24% 9% 0% 2%
-60% 4%
11%

13. New HIV infections, ADULTS (age 15+), SELECTED countries,
1990–2016, AND % DECLINE – (1)
malawi
mozambique
South africa
25%
41%
27%
uganda
zimbabwe
35%
42%

14. New HIV infections, ADULTS (age 15+), SELECTED countries,
1990–2016, AND % DECLINE – (2)
CÔTE D’IVOIRE
Dr congo
14%
23%
gabon
19%

15. New HIV infections, ADULTS (age 15+), SELECTED countries,
1990–2016, AND % DECLINE – (3)
THAILAND
moROCCO
49%
42%
NICARAGUA
HAITI
19%
19%

16. HIV transmission rates (%), ADULTS (age 15+)

17. HIV transmission rates (%), ADULTS (ages 15+), BY REGION, 1990–2016, AND TRANSMISSION RATE IN 2016
Eastern europe and
central asia
Eastern and southern
africa
Asia and the pacific
caribbean
Latin america
Middle east and north
western and central
WESTERN AND CENTRAL EUROPE
AND NORTH AMERICA 4% 3% 6%
12% 8% 5%

18. SWAZILAND INCIDENCE rates (%), ADULTS, 2011 AND 2016

19. SWAZILAND SHIMS2 (PHIA)
Nkambule et al. Substantial progress in confronting the HIV epidemic in Swaziland: first evidence of national impact. MOAX0204LB, Paris IAS 2017
2016 Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA or SHIMS2), compared to 2011 SHIMS1 (Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey)
Overall, 44% decrease in incidence rate (among year olds) over 5 years from 2.4% to 1.5%
Women from 3.2% to 2.0%; men from 1.8% to 0.9%

20. CONCLUSION

21. CONCLUSION
Globally, decline in new infections of 16% between and 2016 (11% among adults). In eastern and southern Africa, decline in new infections of 29% between 2010 and 2016 (24% among adults).
In the right direction in most regions and many countries, but not fast enough

22. National estimation teams in all countries
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
National estimation teams in all countries
Mary Mahy, Kim Marsh, Keith Sabin, Ehounoud Eby, Juliana Daher, Efren Fadriquela at UNAIDS
Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections, with secretariat at Imperial College, London