1. Using Statistics to Mislead

2. Stats in Politics
In 2003 US President George W Bush was proposing a significant tax cut bill. During a speech to middle class Americans at a high school in Kennesaw, Georgia he said…
"Under this plan, 92 million Americans will receive an average tax cut of $1,083.”
"We estimate that 23 million small-business owners across America will receive an average income tax rate cut of $2,042.”
"10 million seniors, nearly one in four, who receive dividend income will get relief. Now, that's important Getting rid of the double taxation of dividends is an incredibly positive thing for the quality of life of our seniors."

3. How Stats Can Be Misleading
This all sounds pretty familiar and pretty good, right? However, averages can be misleading. Here’s how
What is the average of 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, and 40?
What is the mean of 100, 101, 103, 105, 106 and 1
What is 5% of $100?
What is 5% of $100,000?
What is 5% of $10,000,000? 8 86 $5
$5,000
$500,000

4. Outliers Can Skew Means
In the previous example it becomes clear that very high or very small numbers can skew an average and make it non-representative of the general trend of the data.
What is the average of 1, 2, 1, 4, 3, and 40?
What is the mean of 100, 101, 103, 105, 106, 1?

5. Percentage vs Amount
We also see that when talking about a 5% change, it really matters what we’re taking 5% of.
For instance, for a 5% savings, some people save $5 while others save $500,000.
This is especially important when closely examining the proposed tax cuts from our earlier example.

6. Percentage vs Amount
President Bush’s 2003 tax cut proposal:

7. "Under this plan, 92 million Americans will receive an average tax cut of $1,083.”
The vast majority of taxpayers percent -- would receive less than that amount, according to data from the Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center. For the truly typical household -- filers in the middle fifth of the income spectrum -- the average tax cut would be $256. Almost half of all taxpayers would see their taxes drop by less than $100. At the top of the income pyramid, however, the tax savings would be huge; the top 1 percent of filers would receive an average tax cut of $24,100. The average tax cut touted by Mr. Bush is more than $1,000 only because the savings for the wealthiest Americans are so large. *

8. "We estimate that 23 million small-business owners across America will receive an average income tax rate cut of $2,042.”
As with the individual taxpayer statistics, the Tax Policy Center estimates that nearly four out of five tax filers with small-business income would receive less than that amount. More than half would receive $500 or less. Nearly a quarter would receive no tax cut at all -- a group that doesn't drag down Mr. Bush's average because it's simply not included in the calculation. But a small number of wealthy individuals with small- business income would receive huge tax cuts, once again inflating the average. *

9. "10 million seniors, nearly one in four, who receive dividend income will get relief. Getting rid of the double taxation of dividends is an incredibly positive thing for the quality of life of our seniors.”
Some seniors would see their quality of life improve a lot more than others, however. You can probably guess which ones. A big slice of the dividend tax cut percent -- would indeed go to seniors. But the majority of elderly people -- the two-thirds with incomes below $50, would save on average $325 or less. Meanwhile, a small number of high-income elderly would reap most of the benefits. More than three-quarters of the part of the dividend tax break that would go to the elderly would flow to the 19 percent of senior citizens with incomes above $75,000; 43 percent of the benefits would go to the richest in that group, the 2.5 percent of senior citizens with incomes greater than $200,000. They would save an average of more than $5,000. *

10. Infograms Can Also Mislead

11. Infograms Can Also Mislead

12. Infograms Can Also Mislead

13. Infograms Can Also Mislead

14. Infograms Can Also Mislead

15. So, In Conclusion
Numbers can say pretty much whatever we want them to, if we’re savvy enough.