1. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
How are global analyses, forecasts and re-analyses produced?
Richard Engelen (ECMWF)
On behalf of CAMS30 team

2. Observations Ozone observations per 12 hours Metop-B GOME-2
Metop-A GOME-2
OMI
SBUV
OMI

3. Analysis & forecast
Full 3-D fields that are forecasted 5 days ahead.

4. CAMS service chain Space Agencies In-situ component CAMS
National scale

5. Global Services Real-time Analyses AER, CHEM Forecasts AER, CHEM, GHG
Delayed-mode
GHG
Reanalysis
Supplementary
Analysis
GFAS

6. Observation operators
Global system
C-IFS
Observation operators
4D-Var
Chemical module
Aerosol module
Chemical module
Aerosol module
Meteorology
GHG module
GHG module

7. Interaction with data providers
GLOBAL SERVICE CHAIN
Routine monitoring
Validation
User support
Data Acquisition
Data Assimilation
Forecast
Data Dissemination
Routine verification
Interaction with data providers
Emissions

8. Current status 80 km horizontal resolution One 5-day forecasts per day
00UTC forecast available before 22 UTC
40 km horizontal resolution
Two 5-day forecasts per day
12UTC forecast available before 22 UTC

9. GFAS and GhG systems
GFAS currently provides daily estimates of global fire radiative power and fire emissions of many species.
Aim is to better estimate diurnal cycle and forecasted emissions (links with Land and Emergency services) and fully embed in operational global system.
GHG system analyses CO2 and CH4 5 days behind real-time and provides daily real-time 10-day forecasts of the same species.
Aim is to merge the two systems and run them as close to real-time as observation availability allows.

10. CAMS Reanalysis Ozone score CAMS interim reanalysis MACC reanalysis
MACC/CAMS real-time
Control
Using experience from MACC and CAMS-interim reanalyses, the 1st CAMS Reanalysis will start later this year.
2003 – 2017
All current species
Additional observations

11. Use of global services Boundary conditions (CAMS, PANDA, HTAP,…)
Pollution and long-range transport on global scale (e.g., large wildfires, volcanos eruptions, dust storms)
Input for downscaling applications (e.g., smartphone apps)
Input for national forecasting services (e.g., dust, UV)
WMO warning advisory centres
Scientific community (field campaigns, scientific studies, ...)
...

12. Global development
Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower
Steve Jobs
Use new satellite products: S3, S5p, OCO-2, S-NPP
Improved UV products (health)
More accurate surface aerosol and deposition (health, solar energy)
Nitrates (key link between chemistry and aerosol)
Stratospheric chemistry (ozone layer)
Volcanic eruptions (impact on air travel and climate)
More accurate methane emissions (monitoring of carbon cycle)
Increased resolution …