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Balance of payments and Exchange Rates

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Presentation on theme: "Balance of payments and Exchange Rates"— Presentation transcript:

1 Balance of payments and Exchange Rates

2 Balance of payments & exchange rates
The balance of payments account Example of UK balance of payments

3 Balance of payments & exchange rates
The balance of payments account The current account

4 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

5 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

6 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

7 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

8 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

9 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

10 Current account balance as % of GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003

11 Current account balance as % of GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003
UK

12 Current account balance as % of GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003
UK USA

13 Current account balance as % of GDP in selected countries: 1970–2003
Japan UK USA

14 Balance of payments & exchange rates
The balance of payments account The capital account

15 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

16 Balance of payments & exchange rates
The balance of payments account The financial account

17 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

18 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

19 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

20 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

21 Balance of payments & exchange rates
The balance of payments account The overall balance of payments

22 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

23 UK balance of payments: 2001 (£ millions)

24 Balance of payments & exchange rates

25 Sterling exchange rates: 1980–2003

26 Sterling exchange rates: 1980–2003

27 Sterling exchange rates: 1980–2003

28 Sterling exchange rates: 1980–2003

29 Balance of payments & exchange rates
Determination of the exchange rate

30 Determination of the rate of exchange
$ price of £ Q of £

31 Determination of the rate of exchange
$ price of £ D by USA Q of £

32 Determination of the rate of exchange
S by UK b a QD QS $ price of £ D by USA Q of £

33 Determination of the rate of exchange
S by UK $ price of £ d c QS QD D by USA Q of £

34 Balance of payments & exchange rates
Changes in the exchange rate

35 Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
€ / £ D1 Q of £

36 Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
€ / £ D1 Q of £

37 Floating exchange rates: movement to a new equilibrium
€ / £ D1 D2 Q of £

38 Balance of payments & exchange rates
Speculation against exchange rate movements

39 Stabilising speculation
er1 Exchange rate D1 O Quantity of £s

40 Stabilising speculation
er1 Exchange rate er2 D1 D2 O Quantity of £s

41 Stabilising speculation
er1 er3 Exchange rate er2 D1 D2 D3 O Quantity of £s

42 Destabilising speculation
er1 Exchange rate D1 O Quantity of £s

43 Destabilising speculation
er1 er2 Exchange rate D1 D2 O Quantity of £s

44 Destabilising speculation
er1 er2 Exchange rate er3 D1 D3 D2 O Quantity of £s

45 Balance of payments & exchange rates
Movements in the sterling exchange rate over time

46 $ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003

47 $ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003

48 $ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003
1990=100 $ / £

49 $ / £ exchange rate and £ exchange rate index: 1976-2003
1990=100 $ / £

50 Balance of payments & exchange rates
Movements in the dollar/euro exchange rate from 1999 to 2003

51 Fluctuations between the euro and the dollar

52 Fluctuations between the euro and the dollar
US interest rate

53 Fluctuations between the euro and the dollar
US interest rate ECB interest rate

54 Fluctuations between the euro and the dollar
US interest rate $ / € ECB interest rate $ / €


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