1. Brian David Johnson BDJ.Futurist@gmail.com @BDJFuturist
A Widening Attack Plain Initial Cyber Threatcasting Report out for Mad Scientist
Brian David Johnson
@BDJFuturist

2. Contents
Who am I?
A Overview of the Futurecasting and Threatcasting Process
Initial Report Out: ACI Threatcasting
Next Steps

3. Who am I?
Age 13

4. Who am I?
Age 13

5. Who am I?
Nerd!
Age 13

6. Who am I?
Nerd!
NERD!
Age 13

7. Futurecasting? - Isaac Asimov
“Predicting the future is a hopeless, thankless task, with ridicule to begin with and, all too often, scorn to end with.”
- Isaac Asimov

8. Futurecasting Process
Data w/
an opinion
Trends
Technical
SF Proto
Vision for 2026
Future we want
Future we want to avoid
Social
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Vision
2016
2026
Gate
2019
Flag
2023

9. Threatcasting Process
Data w/
an opinion
Trends
Technical
SF Proto
Vision for 2026
Future we want
Future we want to avoid
Social
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Vision
2016
2026
Gate
2019
Flag
2023

10. Threatcasting Process
Data w/
an opinion
Trends
Technical
SF Proto
Vision for 2026
Future we want
Future we want to avoid
Social
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Vision
2016
2026
Disrupt
Event
Mitigate
Recover

11. ACI Threatcasting 8/16/16 and 8/17/16

12. Agenda: Day One
8:00 am to 9:00am: Gather and Breakfast 9:00 am to 9:15am: Kick Off 9:15 am to 9:30am: Agenda Review and Threatcasting Overview (BDJ) 9:30am to 10:30am: Research Inputs Round 1 Groups and Exercise Explanation Slot 1: (15min) Steven L. Neuberg, PhD, Lab Director and Principal Investigator Slot 2: (15min) Brian David Johnson “The Rise of Sentient Machines” Slot 3: (15min) Fernando Maymi “10 years from Now – ACI Perspective” 10:30am to 11:00am: Break

13. Agenda: Day One
11:00am to 12:00pm: Research Inputs Round 2 Slot 4: (15min) Jamie Winterton- Director, Strategy in the Global Security Initiative “Competitive analysis of university cyber security centers” Slot 5: (15min) Sharon Rice Strategist – APICS “The Weakest Link - Cyber Threats and the Future of the Global Supply Chain” Slot 6: (15min) Aaron Brantly #Tech4Terror and the Future of Jihad Slot 7: (15min) CyberSecurity Futures :00am to 1:30pm Lunch and Research Synthesis Exercise (Break in Groups Work with Synthesis Worksheet) 1:30pm to 2:30pm Research Synthesis Exercise Report Out

14. Agenda: Day One
2:30pm to 4:00pm Threatcasting Exercise Directional Chat w/ Chris Claremont (Break into Groups Work with Threatcasting Worksheet) 4:00pm to 4:10pm Break 4:10pm to 4:45pm Threatcasting Exercise Report Out 4:45pm to 5:00pm Wrap up and Next Steps

15. Agenda: Day Two
8:00 am to 9:00am: Gather and Breakfast (NOTE: BDJ to join at 9am) 9:00 am to 9:15am: Kick Off (ACI) 9:15 am to 9:30am: Agenda Review, Review Previous Day and Threatcasting Exercise (BDJ) 9:30am to 10:30am: Threatcasting Exercise (Break into Groups Work with Threatcasting Worksheet) 10:30am to 10:45am: Break 10:45am to 11:30am: Groups Finalize Threatcasting Worksheet 11:30am to 12:00pm: Threatcasting Report Out General Threatcasting Session Ends

16. Agenda: Day Two
12:00am to 1:00pm Lunch Core Team Gathers 1:00pm to 2:00pm Review Event and Clustering Discussion 2:00pm to 3:00pm Backcasting Exercise: Gates and Flags (Break into Groups Work with Threatcasting Backcast Worksheet ) 3:00pm to 3:15pm Break 3:14pm to 4:00pm Report Out 4:00pm to 4:30pm Rapid Exercise: Stand For / Stand Against 4:30pm – END Wrap up and Next Steps

17. Curated Inputs = Specific Focus
Artificial Intelligence
Complex Automated Systems
Supply Chain Disruptions
Terrorist and Technology

18. Actors Vandals Hacktivists Criminals Criminals (State Sponsored)
Terrorists
Terrorists (State Sponsored)
Terrorists / Hacktivists
State Actors
Corporate Espionage / Destabilization

19. Frameworks: A Note
In threatcasting, frameworks are used to gather together and organize for use the large amount of data we produce. They provide us a way to dig even deeper and process new information. They are the tools used to measure, evaluate and take action.

20. Framework: A Widening Attack Plain
Blended Attacks
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Data/Digital
Social
Physical
Kinetic

21. Framework: A Widening Attack Plain
Traditional Warfare / Blended Cyber Warfare
Blended Attacks
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Go Dark / Brown Out / Supply Chain / Automated Systems
Influence / Destabilize / Attack / Micro-targeting
Criminal / Hack & Release / Espionage
Data/Digital
Social
Physical
Kinetic

22. Framework: A Widening Attack Plain
Blended Attacks
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Data/Digital
Social
Physical
Kinetic

23. Framework: A Widening Attack Plain (Day 1)
Seven
Five
Three
Blended Attacks
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Four
Six
Two
One
Data/Digital
Social
Physical
Kinetic

24. Framework: A Widening Attack Plain (Day 2)
Nine
Thirteen
Eight
Blended Attacks
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Seven
Ten
Fourteen
Twelve
Data/Digital
Social
Physical
Kinetic

25. Framework: A Widening Attack Plain (Combined)
Nine
Thirteen
Eight
Ten
Seven
Five
Seven
Twelve
Blended Attacks
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Fourteen
Three
Two
Six
Four
One
Data/Digital
Social
Physical
Kinetic

26. Preliminary 10+ year Threats
Vulnerabilities of Complex Automated Systems
Efficiency is easy to hack
Weaponization of Data
Data + Social
Destabilization of trust
Offense against algorithms and Complex Automated Systems
Weaponization of A.I.
Weapon vs Watching the plain
Physical Vulnerabilities (Global Supply Chain)
Weak links at the fringes
Defense & Industry

27. Preliminary 4-8 year Milestones
“Go Dark” Plans
Cyber Amber Alerts
New Norms and New Roles
Identify Critical Economic and Security
Efficiency is Easy to Hack
Redefine Human interaction in complex automated systems
Broader Public/Industry/Academia Conversation

28. Next Steps Final Report Out – CyCon U.S. - October 21-23rd 2016
Article Series
Industry Report Outs
Academic Collaboration
2017 Cyber Threatcasting

29. Back Up

30. Framework: A Widening Attack Plain
Blended Attacks
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Data/Digital
Social
Physical
Kinetic

31. Framework: A Widening Attack Plain
Blended Attacks
Uncertainty is the land of innovation
Data/Digital
Social
Physical
Kinetic