1. Maintenance inspection design software for full-scale industrial systems
Nov 2010
David Randell, Philip Jonathan, Michael Goldstein

2. Introduction and motivation: Large Systems
Research: galaxy evolution, climate change
Environmental: ground, water and airborne monitoring
Commerce: financial, transactional, software
Manufacturing: fouling, corrosion, fatigue

3. System Characteristics
High dimensional (>1000 variables)
Dependent variables
Evolving (e.g. in time)
Observed with error
Observing complete system prohibitively costly

4. Overall objectives Inspection software to be able to
Model system state
Update system knowledge using observational data
Forecast system (into the future)
Design efficient inspection schemes
Software in two parts
MATLAB module for Bayes linear modelling of data from corroding systems, for implementation within Shell’s current inspection software
BLIP-L MATLAB software for general-purpose multivariate modelling and forecasting, and demonstration of value compared to current methods.

5. Illustration – corrosion circuit

6. Illustration – inspection design

7. Data Characteristics Minima: over whole component observed
Short time series: data per component is limited, but large number of components
Irregular inspections: inspections are carried out when possible often several months or years apart.
Incomplete inspections: complete systems rarely inspected

8. Updating System knowledge: Bayes Linear Approach
If we wish to update beliefs about B using observational data D we can compute the adjusted expectation;
The adjusted expectation can be used as an updated estimate for B provided we know cov(B,D), var(D) E(D). These are estimated using simulation.

9. Illustration – Bayes linear learning

11. Illustration – discrepancy

12. Illustration – Inspection Design

13. Illustration – correlation matrix
Distance Matrix
Feature
Featur e

14. Broadening experience: Extreme Waves
Extremes Waves
Scale-effects, MCMC
Student mentoring
Case study paper

15. Optimisation under uncertainty
Monte Carlo simulations to estimating refinery CO2 allocations
Prediction of future CO2 under abatement programs
Matching of Shell refineries to competitors