1. Economists Incorporated
Florida Clerks of Court Similarly- Situated Groups: Preliminary Review and Discussion for 2016 Report
Benjamin S. Shippen
Vice President
Economists Incorporated
Washington DC
Suite 1100
2121 K Street, NW
Washington DC 20037
Tel (202)
Fax (202)
San Francisco, CA
Suite 1000
101 Mission Street
San Francisco, CA 94105
Tel (415)
Fax (415)
Tallahassee, FL 32312
Suite 303
1276 Metropolitan Blvd.
Tel (850) 1

2. Presentation Outline I. Review of 2012 and 2014 reports
II. Challenges encountered in modeling the previous reports
III. Model changes under consideration
IV. Discussion of additional suggestions 2

3. I. 2012 Groups Report Important model issues
Model 1 estimated the operational budget
We controlled for population and for each case type, new and re-opened
Model 2 also estimated budget with the same factors used in Model 1, but excluded Civil Traffic cases 3

4. I. 2012 Groups Report (cont.) Important results
Model 1 with Civil Traffic cases didn’t predict budgets very well in Groups 1 and 2 (the smaller groups)
Model 2 fit the data better for all groups
Recommended six peer groups from five previously; with some movement between groups based on the model results 4

5. I. 2014 Groups Report Important changes to the model
We estimated the final 2012 model with data
We determined that we could fit the data better by consolidating some of the case types (e.g. county and circuit criminal cases)
Civil Traffic cases again were excluded 5

6. I. 2014 Groups Report (cont.) New model results
The model results suggested seven groups, up from six, with Miami-Dade as the only county in group seven
Groups again based on estimated budget levels
Some counties moved between groups 6

7. II. Challenges with 2012 and 2014 models
Estimating budget levels, not changes in levels
Levels are largely an artifact of previous budgets
Groups are comprised of similarly-sized counties often with different caseloads
Estimating counties with geographic differences
Population density effects 7

8. III. Potential Changes to the Groups Model
Comparing the mix of cases to adjust for differing costs of caseloads
Comparing budget (and factor) changes in addition to levels
Consideration of actual versus predicted budgeted expenditures using historical data 8

9. III. Potential Data and Model Changes (cont.)
Evaluating differences in clerk office funding
Consideration of weighted workload effects
Consideration of population density effects
Proposing groups based on factors other than total predicted budget ranges 9

10. IV. Discussion of additional suggestions
Your ideas 10