1. Divergent Trajectories of Political Change: Guatemala and Costa Rica
Maxwell A. Cameron
UBC Poli 332

2. Source: http://ian.macky.net/pat/map/camr/camrblk.gif

3. Guatemala GDP per capita = $3,900
Ratio of incomes of wealthiest 10% to poorest 10% of population = 63
Largest country (9.8 million); very heterogeneous: 56% Ladino, 44% Indian.
Adult literacy 67%.
Percentage of the population over 25 with no schooling = 47%
Reformist government in deposed in 1954 by CIA
Three decades of genocidal violence
Peace accords signed in 1996
Guatemala remains one of the most corrupt, violent, and least free countries in the Western Hemisphere
Formally democratic, but a “shadow state” exists, or garrison state

4. Costa Rica GDP per capita: $5,900
Ratio of incomes of wealthiest 10% to poorest 10% of population = 25
Exceptionalism? More egalitarian, large class of small farmers; small (3.2 million) socially and racially homogeneous country.
96% white, 2% black, 1% Indian, 1% Chinese.
Adult literacy rate 95%. Major investments in education during the 20th Century.
Percentage of the population over 25 with no schooling = Costa Rica 9%
Social consensus and constitutional politics.
Civil war leads to a democratic settlement.
Continuation of peaceful, democratic transfers of power in Costa Rica.

5. Thesis
The diverging (path dependent) trajectories of Guatemala and Costa Rica can be explained by both structural conditions and political processes.
19th Century a “critical juncture” (Mahoney 2001: 111). Reform periods after 1930 reflect choices made in 19th Century
We cannot disentangle the two in these cases, because they coincide, but high levels of repression appear to be a crucial theme.

6. Guatemala and Costa Rica: Structural Conditions
Vice-Royalty: important colonial centre
Large indigenous population
Large plantations, e.g. bananas
Extractivist: mining
Costa Rica
Marginal to colony, few settlers, mainly subsistence farmers
Small indigenous population
No labor-repressive agriculture
Not extractivist

7. Modal Patterns I & II 19th C to 1930 1940-1980s 1980-2000 2000-
Agro-ex economy
Reform and aftermath
Neoliberalism
No left turns
Pattern I: Guatemala
Long
period of
anarchy
Liberal
Oligarchy
Radical
populism
Highly repressive
authoritarianism
Democracy of low
intensity citizenship
Pattern II: Costa Rica
Moderate
populism,
brief civil
war (1948)
Short
period of
anarchy
Constitutional
oligarchy
“progressive democracy”

8. Historical Periods: Guatemala
From Vice Royalty to capital of United Provinces of Central America ( )
Liberal oligarchy ( )
Populist reforms: October Revolution ( )
Internal War ( )
Democratization and neoliberalism (1985- )

9. 1. United Provinces of Central America
Formed after Mexico declares independence
Came apart in 1838, followed by intense conflict between Liberals and Conservatives
Liberals wanted free enterprise and small state; dispossession of indigenous peoples
Conservatives linked to Catholic Church, represented powerful threat to liberals

10. 2. Liberal Oligarchy,
General Justo Rufino Barrios ( ) – establishes Liberal Oligarchy, endures until 1944
Extensive effort to privatize land and creation of large estates (see Mahoney 2001: 117)
Highly coercive: plantation economy emerges, involving forced labor on estates & debt peonage
Indigenous displaced and dispossessed
Perception of threat leads to militarism and a highly repressive oligarchy (see Mahoney 2001: 120). (Mechanism of institutional reproduction)

11. 3. Populist Reforms,
Overthrow of Jorge Ubico dictatorship ( )
Decade of democracy
Juan Jose Arevalo ( )
Jacobo Arbenz ( )
Populist policies
Agrarian Reform Law (expropriation of United Fruit)
Unionization
Participation of Communists in Arbenz government

12. 4. Coup, Repression, Internal Conflict
CIA-backed coup in 1954
United Fruit – John Foster Dulles
Origin of guerrillas (FAR, MR-13)
Counter-insurgency
No ISI: “immiserating growth” and crony capitalism

13. 5. Low-Intensity Democracy, 1985-
Vicente Cerezo 1985
Peace talks 1987
Establishment of “Counter-Insurgent Constitutional State”
Peace Accords with MINUGUA – UN Verification Mission
Problems with Peace Accords
1999 referendum

14. Historical Periods: Costa Rica
Liberal Republic ( )
Civil War (1948)
Progressive democracy (1949- )
Neoliberalism (1980- )

15. 1. Liberal Republic,
Independence and rapid consolidation of constitutional oligarchy
Less coercive state (no dispute over indigenous lands – small indigenous communities persist)
Privatization of municipal lands
Small-scale & medium-sized agriculture promoted, based on coffee. More egalitarian distribution of land
Liberal-Conservative cleavage attenuated (Catholic Church weak)
Low perception of threat, did not build repressive army (Mahoney 2001: 121).
Government policies to promote literacy and health care

16. 2. Civil War (1948) 1930s Depression: hurts coffee producers
Coffee Pact negotiated
“Coffee oligarchy” elects Rafael Calderon ( ), to implement welfare reforms
Rise of populist Jose Pepe Figueroa
Insurrection and 5 weeks of conflict (2000 killed)
Calderon and Figueroa find common ground
New constitution

17. 3. Progressive Democracy (since 1949)
Stable social democracy
Balanced constitution
Military abolished
Strong public sector
Political parties institutionalized
Judicial independence and rule of law
ISI

18. 4. Neoliberalism (since 1980s)
Crisis in 1980s – ISI debt, inflation, oil shocks
Conflict in Central America and US aid
Shift to neoliberalism with effort to retain social programs
Weakening of unions
Costa Rica’s contributions to the Peace process in Central America
Sustainability initiatives

19. Summary
Guatemala: Ruthless repression of protest after 1930 Decade of democracy overthrown in 1954 Guerrilla conflict lasts for three decades Low-intensity democracy Costa Rica: Accommodation and reform Brief civil war leads to democratic settlement Stable “citizens’” democracy ever since

20. Conclusion: The Impact of Repression
A key link between structural conditions and political process is the use of repression to maintain the status quo
Guatemala: 200,000 deaths during internal conflicts (1960s-1980s), 83% Mayans; 150k exiles; 1.5 m internal refugees
As much violence today in Guatemala as during the internal conflicts – façade of democracy
Costa Rica has been an oasis of stability and a peace-broker in the region

21. Further Discussion: Path Dependency
Based on your reading of James Mahoney (2001) “Path Dependent Explanations of Regime Change”:
What is “path dependency”?
What is a “critical juncture”?
What is “institutional reproduction”?
What were the critical junctures in Guatemala and Costa Rica?

22. Guatemala City Dump