1. by Arvind Lakshmisha Senior Program Officer Public Affairs Centre
Evidence-based Decision-making using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: Lessons from the Global South by
Arvind Lakshmisha
Senior Program Officer
Public Affairs Centre
Presented at workshop on
Communicating Climate Change
10-11 November 2016
Study Supported by
EMPRI

2. Overview Introduction Methodology Study Findings Outcomes
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

3. Introduction
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

4. Introduction to the study
Short study to assess water insecurities caused due to climate change and urbanization in peri-urban areas of Bangalore
Approach: Climate Change Scorecard (CCSC)
Bottom-up inclusive knowledge generation tool
Convergence of multiple voices into a single perspective
Creates an interactive platform for constructive engagement through knowledge sharing and citizen empowerment
Citizens  Environment  Governance Resources
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

5. Peri-urban areas No proper definition to the term
Landscape interface between urban and rural areas
Bi-directional flow  unique characteristics of the area  unique environmental problems
Water Scarcity  Water Insecurity
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]
PERI-URBAN Areas
URBAN Areas
WASTE
WATER

6. Investigating Peri-Urban water security in Bangalore
Delhi √
Hyderabad √
Chennai √
Bangalore ?
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]
A primary study conducted on the peri-urban areas of Bangalore will thus be useful in identifying the drivers and conditions of water-security, specific to the peri-urban areas of Bangalore city.

7. Investigating Peri-Urban water security Bangalore
Need to understand how the double injustice on water resources, due to Unplanned Urbanisation and Climate Variability
Environmental management of peri-urban areas to address the specific environment, social, economic and institutional aspects
First step in addressing water security is to first assess if and how water security is being perceived
Accessibility
Quality
Quantity
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]
(Allen, 2003:1).

8. Study Area 8 villages – Manchanayakanahalli GP – Ramanagara Taluk
2489 HHs, 9905 Individuals
81% working population in non-agricultural activities
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

9. Methodology
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

10. Methodology - CCSC Time Series Analysis (1901-2012)
Exploratory Phase
Time Series Analysis ( )
475 Surveys – Household Drinking Water security
Interviews with Industry and GP representatives
Analytical Phase
240 Fuzzy Cognitive Maps – urbanisation, rainfall variation, temperature increase
Water Sample Analysis
Synthesis Phase
Evidence-based Policy Simulations
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

11. Methodology - CCSC
Cognitive Scinece used to capture uncertain and hazy knowledge
Develop qualitative impact models of water security in Peri- urban Areas
Model causal relationships between variables
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

12. Methodology - CCSC 240 Fuzzy Cognitive maps (30 maps per village)
Interview Based
individuals
groups of people
Each group drew three maps identifying the impact of climate variations and urbanisation on water security
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

13. Methodology - CCSC
Stakeholders decide important variables and relationships in the map
Variables
physical quantities (amount of precipitation or % of vegetation cover)
complex aggregate and abstract ideas
Number between -1 and 1to indicate the relative strength of relation ship
Developed Social Cognitive Maps
Analyse the outcomes of cognitive maps using neural network computation
Simulate different policy options through neural network computation
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

14. Map for Urbanisation and Water Security
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

15. Map for Rainfall Variation and Water Security
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

16. Map for Increase in Temperature and Water Security
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

17. Study Findings
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

18. Water Security – Accessibility and Quantity
Community
73% - home
24% - public tap
90% drinking water – purification units
Private bore wells
GP members
Groundwater
Purification plants
Tanker supply
Water tanks
Decrease in groundwater (450  800 feet)
Industry
Recycling waste water
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

19. Water Security - Quality
Community
Contaminated
High salt content
GP members
Fluoride contamination
Groundwater unsafe for drinking
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]
Seven water samples collected
5 groundwater
2 purification plants
2 samples are acidic (Low PH content)
3 samples are muddy
1 sample has metal corrode

20. Ensuring Water Security
Community
56% Unaware of rainwater harvesting
GP members
Check dams and bunds
Keen to pursue and expand rainwater harvesting
Industry
Undertaking rainwater harvesting
Reusing waste water
Common effluent treatment plants
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

21. Drivers of Water Security
Forest Cover
Economic Conditions
Migration
Rainfall Variation
Industrial Effluents
Pollution
Sewage Water
Conversion of Agricultural Land
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

22. Findings - Policy Simulations
Improving Water Security
+ Sale of Land
+ Slum areas
- Pollution
- Sewage Water
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]
Model Assumptions
Positive Change
Supplementary Change
Strong Positive Change – Drinking Water and Surface Water

23. Outcomes
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

24. Based on our Recommendations
Detailed analysis of the RO plants
Common effluent treatment plant in the Industrial estate
Awareness on rainwater harvesting at GP levels
Structures under MGNREGA Scheme
Training Activities to enhance interaction between industry and gram panchayat representatives
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]

25. Thank You Visit us @ www.pacindia.org Drop in @
Workshop on Communicating Climate Change [10-11 Nov 2016]
Visit
Drop
No.15, KIADB Industrial Area Jigani - Bommasandra Link Road
Bangalore –
India
Phone: /19/20