1. Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) Modeling Toolkit
James Thurlow
Development Strategies and Governance Division, IFPRI
Scientific and Technology Partnerships in Africa
Technology Assessments and Platforms: Tools and Reach in Africa
19-21 July 2016 / Washington, D.C.

2. What is RIAPA?
Tool developed by IFAD/IFPRI for analyzing the contribution of agricultural investments to broader rural transformation goals
Ex ante economy-wide analysis:
Estimates impacts on a range of outcomes (e.g., growth, jobs, poverty, food security, nutrition, etc.)
Prioritizes between investments (e.g., which crops to target? irrigation vs. improved seed varieties?)
RIAPA captures two key considerations for investments:
Economy-wide linkages (e.g., spillovers, value-chains, agri-food systems)
Macro-micro interactions (e.g., investments → growth → poverty)

3. Economywide Framework
Disaggregates national economy into activities and households in different regions
Tracks income and expenditure flows between all economic actors, including the government and rest of world
Actors interact in markets to set prices for products and factors
Macroeconomic consistency is maintained

4. Using RIAPA for Value Chain Analysis
1. Characterize the new value chain
Identify key stages in the supply chain
Estimate labor and other inputs used at each stage (i.e., production costs)
2. Insert new value chain into RIAPA and run expansion simulations
Outcome
(poverty)
Time (planning horizon)
Baseline
(without value chain)
Counterfactual
(with value chain)
Investment Impact

5. Example: Biofuels in Malawi
Two stage value chain
Farming of biofuel feedstock crop (sugarcane)
Processing of feedstock into liquid biofuel (ethanol)
Transaction costs generate incomes for traders and transporters
Stage 1
Feedstock farming
Stage 2
Biofuel processing
Transport to processing plant
Transport to border for export
Reference: Schuenemann, Thurlow and Zeller. Leveling the field for biofuels: Comparing the economic and environmental impacts of biofuel and other export crops in Malawi. Forthcoming in Agricultural Economics.

6. Sugarcane-Ethanol “Technologies”
Irrigated outgrowers
Rainfed outgrowers
Liquid yield (liter/mt)
70.0
Feedstock required (1000 mt)
14,286
Land yield (mt/ha)
99.0
42.0
Land required (ha)
144,000
340,000
Workers employed (people)
53,669
100,634
Feedstock
53,298
100,263
Processing
371
Capital needs (units)
12,142
9,984

7. Comparing Biofuel and Existing Crops

8. Simulating Biofuels Expansion
Jointly model feedstock and downstream biofuels processing
Biofuels sectors start very small and are then expanded by injecting capital
Biofuels sectors compete for land and labor resources, and demand intermediate inputs
All biofuels are exported
Product markets
Labor
Exports
Capital
Raw feedstock
Agro-processing
Trade & transport
Land
Services
Industry
Agriculture
House-holds
Supply
Domestic sales
Repatriated profits

9. Headline Results
Growth and Poverty
Land Use Change

10. Social Accounting Matrices
Countries with known SAM databases
GDP
Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012
Population
Completed
Underway
Next in line
Second wave
NEXUS Project
(standardization)

11. Similar Applications
Smallholder vs. plantation value-chains (incl. emissions from land use change)
Thurlow et al Producing Biofuels in Low-Income Countries: An Integrated Climate and Economic Assessment for Tanzania. Environmental and Resource Economics 64(2) :
New maize varieties and fertilizer use (incl. climate and world price risks)
Arndt et al The Economywide Impacts and Risks of Malawi’s Farm Input Subsidy Program. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 98 (3):