1. Grande Prairie Economic & Housing Market Review & Forecast
Richard Goatcher
Economic Analyst
CHBA – Alberta

2. Alberta Net Migration total net migration - quarterly
Source: Statistics Canada

3. Alberta Total Net Migration Quarterly year-over-year net change
Source: Statistics Canada

4. Alberta - Total Net Migration
net migration - annual
Source: Statistics Canada, Forecast: CHBA-AB

5. Labour Force vs. Employment
Alberta
(thousands – seasonally unadjusted)
Dec data
Source: Statistics Canada

6. number of persons employed (,000s – 3MMA)
Employment
Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House & Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River
number of persons employed (,000s – 3MMA)
May data
Source: Statistics Canada

7. Annual Average Employment
Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House & Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River
number of persons employed (,000s)
Source: Statistics Canada

8. Unemployment Rates %
May data
Source: Statistics Canada

9. Five-year Mortgage Rate
Monthly average
per cent (conventional/posted)
Source: Statistics Canada (Bank of Canada)

10. Alberta Inflation Rate
CPI – y/yr % chg
Nov. data
Source: Statistics Canada

11. Alberta (Seasonally adjusted)
Avg. Weekly Earnings
Alberta (Seasonally adjusted)
Source: Statistics Canada

12. Retail Sales Alberta seasonally adjusted (x 1,000)
Oct. data
Source: Statistics Canada

13. Energy and Petroleum Products
Price Index
2010 = 100
StatCan’s Industrial product price indexes, by major commodity aggregations - charted to Oct.
Energy and petroleum products – includes crude oil, bitumen, nat. gas & nat. gas liquids & related products.
Worst performance since the 2008 recession.
Actual data to Oct – Nov an estimate.
Source: Statistics Canada

14. International Exports from Alta
($ Millions)
Oct. data
Source: Statistics Canada

15. International Exports from Alta Forestry Products ($ Millions)
3 mon. mvg. avg.
Oct data
Source: Statistics Canada

16. Softwood Lumber Production - Alta
(cubic metres x 1,000)
3 mon. mvg. avg.
Sept 2015 data
Source: Statistics Canada

17. Farm Product Prices
Alta Livestock
$/100 wt
Source: Statistics Canada

18. Farm Product Prices Alberta $/metric tonne Source: Statistics Canada
Sept data
Source: Statistics Canada

19. about their current financial situation
Percentage of Canadians who feel positive
about their current financial situation
Released Jan. 5th, based on December 2015/2014 surveys.
So, this is how folks were thinking at the end of the prior year.
Albertans have gone from being the most confident at the end of 2014 to the least confident a year later.
However, 60% of Albertans remain confident despite 18 months of doom and gloom from the sky-is-falling media talking heads.
Source: CIBC / Angus Reid

20. Value of New Residential Investment Alberta - Current Prices
6 month moving average (x $1,000)
Oct data
Source: Statistics Canada

21. Building Permit Values ($000)
Alberta
Nov. data
Oct. permits soar as builders get plans registered before the Nov. 1 commencement of the new building code.
Source: Statistics Canada

22. Alberta Housing Starts
Urban Centres
units (,000s)
Dec. data
Source: CMHC

23. Total Housing Starts Alberta – All Areas
units (annual)
Source: CMHC, Forecast: CHBA-AB

24. Total Housing Starts Grande Prairie
units (annual)
Source: CMHC

25. Single-detached Housing Starts
Grande Prairie
units
Source: CMHC

26. Single-detached Housing Starts Grande Prairie
units (annual)
Source: CMHC

27. Semi-detached Housing Starts Grande Prairie
units (annual)
Source: CMHC

28. Unabsorbed New Home Inventory
Single & Semi-detached - Homeowner & Condo
units (completed & unoccupied)
Dec data
Source: CMHC

29. Avg. Single-detached Absorbed Price Grande Prairie CA
6 month moving average
Nov. data
Source: CMHC

30. Grande Prairie CA - Single-detached Units Absorptions by $ Range
share of market
Jan-Sept. data for 2015
($,000)
Source: CMHC

31. Multi-family Housing Starts Grande Prairie CA
units (annual)
Source: CMHC

32. Unabsorbed New Home Inventory Row & Apartment - Homeowner & condo
units (completed & unoccupied)
Dec 2015 data
Source: CMHC

33. Residential MLS® Sales
Alberta SAAR
units - 3 month moving avg.
Nov. data
Source: CREA

34. Residential MLS® Average Sale Price Alberta
3 month moving average
Nov. data
Source: CREA

35. Residential MLS® Sales Grande Prairie
units
Source: CREA

36. Residential MLS® Sales Grande Prairie
units (annual)
Last year’s activity (2394 units) not much below the average for the previous 10 years - 2,473 units
Source: CREA

37. MLS® Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio
Grande Prairie Region
3-month moving avg.
Source: GPREB

38. Residential MLS® Average Sale Price Grande Prairie
6 month moving average
Source: CREA

39. Residential MLS® Average Sale Price Grande Prairie
annual
Source: CREA

40. Apartment Vacancy Rate
Alberta Cities 10,000+
per cent (October surveys)
Source: CMHC

41. Apartment Vacancy Rate
Grande Prairie CA
per cent (October surveys)
Source: CMHC

42. Average Rent Alberta Cities 10,000+ two-bedroom apartment
Source: CMHC (October surveys)

43. Average Rent Grande Prairie CA two-bedroom apartment
Source: CMHC (October surveys)

44. Grande Prairie Outlook for 2016
For Discussion
Grande Prairie Outlook for 2016
Upside
Mortgage rates to remain “affordable.”
New home inventory appears manageable.
New activist gov’ts in Edmonton & Ottawa will spend on infrastructure.
Inflation remains “benign”(for now).
Forestry & agriculture sectors holding up.
Low C$ helping exports to US.
Offshore investors see bargains & safe havens in Canadian RE.
Downside
Reduced migration from the ROC.
Spending cuts in the energy sector will hamper job creation.
Resale home market favours buyer.
Tighter credit conditions as mortgage arrears increase.
Rental markets have softened.
Uncertainly over royalty reviews & carbon taxes (activist gov’t).
Consumer confidence eroded.
Falling C$ causing price pressures.
Rising IR’s in US putting upward pressure on fixed-rate mortgages here.

45. Grande Prairie Housing Review
Richard Goatcher
Economic Analyst
CHBA - Alberta