1. The road to the Paris summit: the FCCC and beyond
Mat Paterson, University of Ottawa
Lancaster 23 Feb 2015

2. Paris COP: context Latest in series of attempts to revive FCCC
End of Kyoto Protocol first commitment period 2012
Montréal, Bali, Copenhagen, Cancún/Durban. Accords, Action Plans, Platforms … no treaty
Interconnected set of complex issues
Rise in developing country emissions (esp “BASIC” countries)
How to establish targets – 2°C, ad hoc offers by countries, etc.
INDC process at the moment
Monitoring, verification
Finance

3. Paris COP: context For present audience
EU is pushing for the ‘most ambitious’ goals on targets, finance, etc.
UK party leaders’ pact
Not that obvious re how to put on direct pressure
The bigger problem, in terms of countries with low(er) ambition or blocking progress, is US, China, Canada, Saudi Arabia, etc.

4. Paris COP: likely outcome
Lowest common denominator deal on emissions
Inadequate for 2°C
Uneven across industrialised countries
EU target much stronger than US, Japan, Canada, etc.
Not clear re precision about BASIC country targets
Intensity vs absolute, “no-lose targets”, qs re verification and finance
Wild card is if other developing countries reject because it’s lowest common denominator
“bad deal vs no deal”

5. Beyond the FCCC Lots of new initiatives outside the FCCC
Massive growth since 1997

6. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014

8. Implications for activists

9. Implications for activists
There is no “miracle”
Multiple sites of possible action (alongside lobbying)
Cities and towns
Transitions network, C40, etc
Investment and finance
CDP, divestment,
Communities, housing
Focus on interactions
What would change the calculations of politicians?
Showing possibilities (technologies, new urban plans …)
Changing political incentives (voting, enrolling new actors … bankers and carbon markets)
E.g. the CDP-carbon markets synergies
Which bits of FCCC might stimulate action elsewhere?
Legacies of Kyoto – accounting, markets
Other legacies for new agreement?

11. Implications for activists
Focus on imaginaries: Big picture Re-framings
E.g. “emissions reductions”, vs “decarbonisation” vs “keep the coal in the hole” vs “transitions” vs ????
Each orient to the task differently, make things visible, close down different options
There is no silver bullet
We don’t know, and perhaps cannot know in advance, which efforts will “work”, and how they will combine