1. TRMA Economic Panorama
Brodie Oldham

2. Topics to cover
Macroeconomic update
Credit trends
Generational view

3. Macroeconomic Trends
© 2016 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.

4. Gasoline Prices U.S. Average (regular, incl. all taxes)

5. Residential Real Estate Interest Rates, Home Sales & Prices

6. Originations by lending product National

7. Mortgage Update National
Delinquency Rates

8. HELOC Update National
Delinquency Rates
Source: Experian IntelliViewSM

9. Auto Loan & Lease Update National

10. Bankcard Update National

11. Average VantageScore® 3.0 Bankcard inquiries and originations

12. Retail Credit Update National
Source: Experian IntelliViewSM

13. Status for open utility accounts

14. Average balance and status of open utility accounts

15. Retail delinquency rates By state
Best/worst five states*
2Q16 national retail
60-89 DPD
Maine 0.73%
Nebraska 0.73%
Minnesota 0.78%
Alaska 0.78%
New Hampshire 0.79% …
Oklahoma 1.17%
Arkansas 1.26%
Washington DC 1.27%
Arizona 1.29%
West Virginia 1.42%
*Includes District of Columbia
High
Low
Source: Experian IntelliViewSM

16. Personal Installment Loan Update National
Delinquency Rates
Source: Experian IntelliViewSM

17. When consumers don’t pay, what product do they not pay?
2007
2009
2015
AUTO
14%
19%
BANKCARD
57%
52%
51%
PERSONAL LOAN
18%
32%
HELOC/HELOAN
12%
15%
23%
1ST MORTGAGE
39%
21%
RETAIL
28%
26%
STUDENT LOAN
48%
44%

18. The millennial movement
Shifting credit trends and the millennial influence
© 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Confidential. 18

19. Younger Age 21-27 Older Age 28-34
Generations
Gen Z
Age 18-20
Gen Y*
Younger Age Older Age 28-34
Gen X
Age 35-49
Boomer
Age 50-70
Silent
Age 70+
* Split into Younger and Older Gen Y

20. Who is Generation Z?

21. Average VantageScore by generation

22. Total Debt by generation

23. VantageScore at retail origination

24. Retail late stage delinquency rates Percent of balances 60DPD

25. Associated Borrower A more comprehensive approach
Before
After
OLD
NEW
Partial picture Based on mortgage performance; Limited credit data
Partial picture Based on mortgage performance; Limited credit data
Complete picture Holistic credit view for all associated borrowers
Single representation of loan
FICO score
Mortgage performance
Loan information
Property valuation (occasional)
Single representation of loan
FICO score
Mortgage performance
Loan information
Property valuation (occasional)
All associated borrowers
VantageScore®, other credit scores
Property valuation – regular updates
Attributes – credit card, auto, utilization, delinquency, debt-to- income, payment
721
721
634
Borrower
Borrower
Associated Borrower

26. Thin files as of June 2016 by generation

27. Experian White Paper research
Let there be light
Experian White Paper research
Applied positive utility payments to 5% random sample, then measured changes to credit profile
Summary
10% more consumers became thicker
Increased average risk score by 28 points
Benefits
© 2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Confidential. 27

28. Let there be light Experian White Paper Research

29. Consumers and data reporters can benefit from
Reporting Advantages
Consumers and data reporters can benefit from
full file reporting by alternative trade data sources
Thicken consumer
profiles
Positively impact
credit score
Increase cash flow
Improve collections
Enhance customer
experience
Assist consumers

30. Millennial Income Insight

31. Millennial Debt to Income Insight

32. Millennial forecasted debt growth

33. Understanding Millennials and Gen Z will shape our future
To bring Millennials into your strategy:
Maintain a long-term vision
Keep up with technological expectations
Message with authenticity
Provide education for financial literacy
Connect them to something bigger!!!