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An Evolutionary Money Management System

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Presentation on theme: "An Evolutionary Money Management System"— Presentation transcript:

1 An Evolutionary Money Management System
Introducing EVO An Evolutionary Money Management System Potomac Advisors Inc. Presented by Rich Paul

2 Today’s Agenda 1 2 Who I am, What I do & How I do it My performance
Hello! Today’s Agenda Who I am, What I do & How I do it 1 30-years of registered, investment advisory experience. 2 My performance GIPS compliant, and GIPS and Theta Research verified track record.

3 Rich Paul Career Highlights: EVO1 Historical Performance: 21.86%
INTRODUCING Career Highlights: 25 year tenure as an electrical engineer/weapons system analyst. 30 year tenure as a registered investment advisor. Founder of Potomac Fund Management, CEO from Co-founding member of NAAIM - authored NAAIM’s first performance measurement standards while serving as Chairman of the committee. Co-authored landmark JPM article: “Market Timing Works, Where it Matters Most… In the Real World.” EVO1 Historical Performance: 21.86% 3 yr $1000M 7 yr 18.55% $1000M 10 yr 18.51% Inception 17.25% performance calculations from June 1, 2002 through July 31st, (gross - not including advisory fees)

4 ev·o·lu·tion-ary (ĕv′ə-lo͞o′shə-nĕr′ē): A gradual process in which
ABOUT US ev·o·lu·tion-ary  (ĕv′ə-lo͞o′shə-nĕr′ē): A gradual process in which something changes into a different and usually more complex or better form. EVO: AN EVOLUTIONARY MONEY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

5 “Academic research indicates that
ABOUT US “Academic research indicates that when multiple trading systems are aggregated the noise and errors will tend to diversify away, while the signal remains, and is stronger.” THE KEY TO EVO’S STRATEGY

6 How signals are created
ABOUT EVO How signals are created EVO is a mechanical system, by which all signals are generated based on algorithmic rules using technical analysis. This eliminates all subjective biases and emotion from trading decisions. ■ Systems divided into long-term filters & short-term triggers ■Original composite of eight trading systems left many missed opportunities ■Added or modified systems to enhance performance and/or reduce risk ■Currently, EVO has over 20 trading systems Validated Combinations are included in a Single EVO Composite Select from a Universe of 120+ Individual Trading Systems New Combinations Continually Evaluated for Inclusion Creates Thousands of Combinations

7 ABOUT EVO Evolved from a composite of 8 to over 20+ multiple trading systems Trading systems are divided into long-term filters & short-term triggers. Buy / Sell / Short / Hold decisions plus protective stops EVO 1 trades are executed in Rydex S&P 500 index funds Long Positions: Rydex Nova Fund, an S&P X Leveraged mutual fund Short Positons: Rydex Inverse S&P 500 Fund = Inverse 1.0X S&P 500: Trades ~20 round trips per year (1 RT = 1 buy & 1 sell. Projection is based on current model) “ All In,” i.e., 100% invested on each trade EVO’S SYSTEM PROFILE

8 Performance “a posse ad esse”

9 = ABOUT EVO EVO’s evolution: June 2002 – March 2015 THE ORIGINAL EVO1 EVO1 17.30% -26.20% 5.40% As EVO evolved from 8 to 18 systems, we see performance improve with little change to risk & volatility. Actual Results By using forward-testing, we can see how the original 8 system would have performed if never changed. VS Forward-tested 13.22% ANNUALIZED RATE OF RETURN -23.90% MAX DRAWDOWN 6.20% ULCER INDEX

10 14+ Year Performance Results
June 1, 2002 through July 31, (gross of fees) Metric EVO1 S&P 500 % of Time Invested Long 51.1% 100% % of Time Invested Short 0.4% N/A # Winning Trades 90 # Losing Trades 57 % of Winning Trades 61.2% Average Gain of Winning Trades 4.07% Average Loss of of Losing Trades -2.33% Ratio Avg. Winning Trade to Avg. Losing Trade 1.75

11 Historical Performance
June 1, 2002 through July 31, (gross of fees) Calendar Year Returns (* = partial year) Summary Statistics Metric EVO1 S&P 500 Annualized Rate of Return 17.25% 7.31% Cumulative Return 854% 172% Standard Deviation (mo.) 4.14% 4.20% Loss Standard Deviation (mo.) 2.81% 3.71% Sortino Ratio RF (Citi 3 mo. TB) 1.93 0.58 Calmar Ratio 0.72 0.14 Maximum Drawdown -23.9% -51.0% Up Capture vs. Market 89.8% 100% Down Capture vs. Market 37.0% Alpha Vs. Market 13.9% 0% Beta vs. Market 0.39 1.00 R-Squared vs. Market 0.15 Year EVO1 S&P500 + / - YTD 10.10% 7.66% +2.44% 2015 12.18% 1.38% +10.80% 2014 23.61% 13.69% +9.92% 2013 50.90% 32.39% +18.51% 2012 24.78% 16.00% +8.78% 2011 5.24% 2.11% +3.13% 2010 -0.08% 15.06% -15.14% 2009 20.05% 26.46% -6.41% 2008 19.88% -37.00% +56.88% 2007 19.17% 5.49% +13.68% 2006 15.59% 15.79% -0.20% 2005 -1.04% 4.91% -5.95% 2004 19.10% 10.88% +8.22% 2003 35.49% 28.68% +6.81% 2002* -0.34% -16.69% +16.35%

12 Growth of a Hypothetical $100,000 Investment
YOUR MONEY Growth of a Hypothetical $100,000 Investment

13 REAL-TIME PERFORMANCE; STELAR RESULTS
Consistent performance, nearly positive absolute returns Maximum calendar year loss only -1% Strategy was up +20% in 2008: S&P down -37% Program outperformed S&P 500 TR by 10% with half the risk System evolution produced continuously improving results Actual results better than the if original composite were used Current model projects better than the actual results (based on backtests) Over a recent 10-year period, the program beat every single actively managed mutual fund, ETF, and all but one index (on a gross of fees basis) 292 signals (146 round trips) over 14 years demonstrate statistically significant results PEROMANCE REAL-TIME PERFORMANCE; STELAR RESULTS

14 The EVO competitive advantage
CLOSING THOUGHTS The EVO competitive advantage Real-time Superior performance, beats on risk and return. 6 Stellar 1 All results are actual. No hypotheticals or back-tested results. EVO went live May 31, 2002, over 14 years ago. 2 History 7 Consistency The only strategy ranked in the top four in performance in all seven time periods from one to 10 years as tracked by Theta Research. (July 2016) Ranking Highlights: Three #1 rankings Three #2 rankings Ranked #1 or #2 on a risk adjusted basis for all time periods from three to 10 years. (Theta’s Ulcers Performance Index) GIPS verified track record through June Theta Research provides ongoing verification. 3 Verified

15 Potomac Advisors Inc. REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR
Thank You! The EVO Strategy is offered through Potomac Advisors Inc. REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISOR

16 GIPS VERIFICATION

17

18 Potomac Advisors Performance Disclosure
EVO composite performance is based on actual accounts and comprises all accounts in the composite. Composite returns are time-weighted total returns that reflect the reinvestment of dividends and capital gain distributions. Composite returns are net of the underlying mutual fund management fees and other fund (administrative) expenses. No redemption or 12(b)1 (fund marketing) fees were charged for these composites. Composite returns are shown gross of fees, thus no adjustment for fees has been made, neither for income taxes. Performance for other composites in other investment programs offered may differ materially (more or less) from the performance of this composite. The volatility of the market indices may materially differ (more or less) from that of this composite. Benchmark returns such as the S&P 500 are total returns and reflect the reinvestment of dividends. It should not be assumed that future recommendations will be profitable or equal past performance. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when sold or redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Such offers can only be made where lawful under applicable law.  This presentation is for use by investment professionals only. It is not intended to be distributed to the public and such use is prohibited. It is intended to demonstrate to advisers the performance of the manager, not the actual performance after fees which may different for licensees of the EVO system.


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