1. Skills Assessments
Falkirk
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for Falkirk
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slidepack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
Industrial history and retains a strong manufacturing base
Grangemouth hosts the largest chemical and petrochemical complex in Scotland and is the country’s largest container port
Low productivity although relatively strong employment growth over last few years
Areas of relative deprivation, with house prices and wages below the national average
Out-commuting common

9. Business Trends
Growth of the business base between above the Scottish trend rate (8.9% v. 7.3%)
295 new businesses including: Arts, Entertainment, Recreation & Other Services (+75), Business Admin & Support Services (+60) and Professional, Scientific and Technical (+40)
98% of businesses are small or micro (<50 employees)
10 businesses employ more than 250 people
229 businesses per 10,000 population compared to 313 nationally
10% self employment in Falkirk, similar to the national figure (10.8%)
Number of Growth Sector businesses in 2015 grew by 4% to 1,485
18% of employment in Growth Sectors (compared to 28% nationally)
Smaller proportion of Growth Sector businesses in Food and Drink sector than nationally, and higher proportion in Financial and Business Services

10. Population and Projections
Population of 158,460 in 2015
2.9% of Scotland’s total population
Small increase in population over the year (+0.5%) in line with the national growth rate
Between 2005 and 2015 Falkirk saw above average population growth (+6%, compared to +5% nationally)
In line with national trends, growth was driven by those aged 65+ (+21%), but there was also growth in 0-15 age range which contrasts national trends
Forecast Population Growth :
Total population is forecast to grow by 10% (+16,300) compared to 9% nationally
Working age population is forecast to fall by 4% in Falkirk and nationally

11. Workforce Trends Total employment in Falkirk = 63,700
2.8% increase over the year, above the region (1.7%) but lower than nationally (3.1%)
42% work in higher level occupations in 2015, in line with the Scottish average
70% of the employed population work in private sector, compared to 77% nationally
26% of employees work part-time, a slight increase from 24% the previous year, but in line with the national average (26%)
5.2% of people in employment are in non-permanent jobs, compared to 5.4% nationally
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
The employment rate in Falkirk is 74% in ppt higher than the previous year, bringing it above the national rate (73%)
58% of employed residents work in Falkirk
11% work elsewhere in the region
31% work outside the region
Key areas for out-commuting include Edinburgh and Stirling (both 10%), West Lothian (6%) and Glasgow (5%)
The unemployment rate in Falkirk was the same as the national average (6%) in 2015, unemployment fell by -0.4ppts which was the same as the national decline over the same period
90% of year olds in Falkirk are participating in 2016, and 6% are not, mirroring participation trends across Scotland
Unemployment = ILO measure, i.e. those who are available for and actively seeking work
Unemployment rate: Unemployed as a percentage of the economically active population

13. Qualifications and Earnings
A lower proportion of working age adults in Falkirk (37%) hold SCQF Level 7-12 qualifications than in Scotland (43%) in 2015, although this is in line with the UK (37%)
Falkirk’s resident and workplace earnings average (£498 and £514 respectively), and are both marginally below national levels

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 8,598, 3.1% of Scotland total
93% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, compared to 92% across Scotland
MA uptake decreased 2% from 2014/15 to 920
4% of national total in 2015/16
Construction and Retail & Customer Service most popular framework groups, 18% uptake each
Construction heavily gender segregated - 98% male
77% achievement rate 2015/16

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Forth Valley College there were 14,530 enrolments
5% of Scotland’s total
84% FE and 16% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Engineering, Care, Business, management & administration
Part-time: Engineering, Special Programmes, Construction
69% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 10,000 students at the one HEI in the region, the University of Stirling, in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Biological Sciences, Business & Admin, Social Studies
HE/FE data is available at Forth Valley regional level only, comprising Clackmannanshire, Falkirk and Stirling. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to increase by 0.2% on average each year from 2016 to 2024, the same as the equivalent rate for Scotland as a whole. Such growth equates to 1,100 additional jobs in the region by Construction and administrative and support activities are expected to enjoy growth of 600 and 500 jobs respectively over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the public and manufacturing sectors. The number of jobs within manufacturing is expected to fall by 700 over the forecast, whilst those in public administration and defence will fall by 500 jobs.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
Falkirk Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 25,100 openings within Falkirk over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to grow by 800 openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 25,900 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in elementary and professional occupations, driven mainly by replacement demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer service occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period, again driven largely by replacement demand.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. Falkirk: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
The strong employment growth evident in Falkirk since 2010 slowed in 2014 and went in to reverse in 2015, reflecting the fragility of the economic recovery. The 1.7% fall in jobs (1,100) comes at a time of limited jobs growth across Scotland.
There were job losses in several sectors in 2015, including the largest sector, health (-700), but also in the important sector of production (-300). There was contraction in financial, business and professional services, sectors which had been growing in importance. Accommodation and food services jobs increased (+400), as they have across the region, although these will typically be low paid and lower value added.
The business base continues to grow strongly, and at rates above the Scotland average, although overall output, despite recent growth, is well below pre-recession levels. Falkirk has the twin challenge of maintaining (and increasing) competitiveness in the manufacturing sector with making the transition to a knowledge-based economy. Progress in the latter has slowed.
Glasgow

20. Falkirk: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population is forecast to continue growing but there will be fewer of working age. More than 30% from Falkirk out-commutes from the region. There is a challenge to grow the number of jobs locally.
More are employed in elementary occupations than the Scotland average, and with replacement demand, these jobs will offer the greatest number of openings. Again, this is a challenge for Falkirk, where productivity growth is expected to be lower than the Scotland average. Skilled trades, sales and customer services and professional occupations are the other occupations offering future job openings.
One third go into employment from school from Falkirk, higher than the national average.
The top MA frameworks by take-up largely reflect the composition of the regional economy – construction, retail & customer services, administration & related, health & social care (with sport), engineering & energy.
Glasgow

21. Falkirk: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for Falkirk include:
Increasing the number of local jobs . Recent job losses across several sectors reflect the weak economic recovery.
Increasing the quality of jobs. Productivity is below average and Falkirk is losing jobs in higher value added services and production.
Creating a culture of employer investment . Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including manufacturing, health and tourism. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary occupations, as well as skilled trades. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow