1. Schools Causing Concern
The Middle School Context
Nigel Wyatt, Executive Officer, NMSF
David Brandon-Bravo, Headteacher, Parkfields Middle School 
February 2017

2. Middle Schools – 2016/17
Firstly some factual information – as at September 2016:
There are currently 131 middle schools
All except 5 are middle deemed secondary schools
The large majority of middle schools cater for Year 5 to Year 8, but there are examples of other age ranges.
There are currently 60 middle schools with academies status. (46%)
Middle schools cater for approximately 57,300 pupils

3. Statutory Guidance - Schools Causing Concern
Arrangements for middle and other schools  
The majority of middle schools are deemed to be secondary schools but due to the age range of pupils are subject to the coasting definition relating to key stage 2, rather than the coasting definition relating to key stage 4. A pupil may, however, only have attended a middle school for a short time before they took the key stage 2 tests and may still have a number of years left at the school. For this reason, RSCs will give consideration to the wider context when a middle school falls within the coasting definition. This will include giving consideration to the progress made by pupils from the point of entry to the middle school to when they leave, which may be demonstrated by robust, and where possible externally benchmarked, school data. (Page 15)

4. Middle schools are not accountable for the progress of pupils in feeder first schools – who are not subject to the coasting schools definitions.
The effectiveness of a middle school is to be judged against the progress made by their pupils between the point of entry to the school and their point of exit.
This will generally be from the start of Year 5 to the end of Year 8. This is now the consistent position in:
Statutory Guidance on Schools Causing Concern
Ofsted Inspection Handbook

5. The Middle School Context
Two issues when considering middle school data:
The majority of middle school pupils spend less than half of KS2 in their middle school before taking KS2 SATs.
The raised Profile of KS1 results in first schools distorts data on progress from KS1 to KS2 in middle school systems.

6. 1) The majority of middle school pupils spend less than half of KS2 in their middle school before taking KS2 SATs.

7. Ofsted Guidance Incomplete key stages
When evaluating pupil progress, inspectors will take account of those pupils who started a key stage elsewhere or have not completed their current key stage. This could include middle schools and newly opened schools, or where pupil mobility is high.
Inspection Handbook (Aug 2016) – paragraph 188
In schools where attainment is not benchmarked nationally – for example in the final year group of a middle school – inspectors should draw on all the available evidence to decide whether attainment is above average, broadly average or low.
January 2015 Handbook

8. No valid conclusions can be drawn from KS2 data about the effectiveness of a middle school
Compare two middle schools with identical KS2 results:
--both just below the threshold
A) An ineffective middle school,
B) An ineffective first school combined with an effective middle school.
You cannot determine which is the case from KS2 results.
No valid or reliable judgement about the effectiveness of
a middle school can be drawn from KS2 results.

9. 2) The raised Profile of KS1 results in first schools distorts data on progress from KS1 to KS2 in middle school systems.
Research by Mike Treadaway at Datalab confirms the NMSF’s own middle school intake benchmarking data in showing that the national profile of KS1 results for all primary schools is consistently lower than in first or infant schools.

10. We worry about teachers inflating results; we should worry more about depression of baseline assessments Mike Treadaway, Director of Research at FFT
Why is Key Stage One assessment so different in infant and primary school systems?
Pupils with similar F.S. Profile results appear to make lower progress from KS1 to KS2 in infant/junior systems (and first/middle school systems)

11. Infant and primary school Key Stage One scores really diverge after teacher assessment begins
Before 2003, infant schools achieved only slightly higher Key Stage One scores than primary schools, but after teacher assessment was introduced, their scores started to diverge strongly.

12. NMSF – evidence from intake benchmarking
This same difference is evident in our own work benchmarking the KS1 results of pupils entering Year 5 in middle schools:
September 2013 Intake
Number of pupils in First School sample

13. September 2014 Intake
Number of pupils in First School sample
KS1 results for first schools are consistently higher than those for all pupils nationally – as primary schools seek to depress their baseline scores.

14. Data concerning progress from KS1 to KS2 within middle school systems is not directly comparable to national progress data
The evidence clearly suggests that pupils of comparable ability in first schools are given higher KS1 scores than those in primary schools.
This distorts data on pupil progress within middle school systems.
Result:-
Progress in middle school systems appears to be lower than national figures which are largely based on data from primary schools.

15. Data on progress from KS1 to KS2 within three tier systems is doubly unreliable:
i) Middle schools are only responsible for part of the progress a child makes during KS2 – no valid conclusions about middle school effectiveness can be drawn from these results
ii) Pupils in first schools are given higher KS1 scores than comparable pupils in primary schools.
This has the effect of making progress from KS1 to KS2 appear to be lower in three tier systems.
The coasting school thresholds, based on achievement and progress measures, cannot properly reflect middle school effectiveness

16. NMSF agreed to the following process (note careful use of words):
KS2 data to be used to identify schools that might be a cause for concern. (Recognising that no conclusions could be drawn from KS2 data about middle schools effectiveness). That middle schools be invited to send RSC data showing progress of pupils from Year 5 to Year 8. (To conform with statutory guidance on page 15. The initial letter from RSC should have said this explicitly and been tailored to middle schools.) Only if this showed pupils making significantly less than expected progress from Year 5 to Year 8 over three consecutive years should the school be designated a coasting school. (This requires a judgement about the statistical significance of differences in achievement and progress, and their associated confidence intervals).

17. How might middle schools demonstrate this progress?
The effectiveness of a middle school is to be judged against the progress made by their pupils between the point of entry to the school and their point of exit.
How might middle schools demonstrate this progress?

18. What about Key Stage 3 in middle schools?
Benchmarking of middle school results at the end of Year 8 between 2011 and 2015 shows that: a) Middle school pupils achieve better outcomes than those achieved by Year 9 pupils in the last available KS3 national curriculum tests in b) Progress to the end of Year 8 has been improving year on year up to the last available results in July 2015.

19. Year 8 - English
Source: NMSF benchmarking - sample of over 5,000 pupils each year
N.B. In 2012 we benchmarked reading and writing separately

20. Year 8 - Maths
Source: NMSF benchmarking - sample of over 7,000 pupils each year

21. Making sense of Ofsted middle school judgements
Extending the model used earlier to include good progress at KS3 helps to understand how the coasting schools definitions have picked out middle schools judged to be good and outstanding by Ofsted when progress across the four middle school years is considered (in line with statutory guidance).
School A)
Progress may be ‘good’ overall
School B)
Shows outstanding pupil progress through the middle school years.

22. Extracts from two recent Ofsted reports for schools in receipt of RSC letters.
By the time students leave the school, at the end of Year 8, they have made exceptional progress in English, mathematics and science ...The school’s own data show that progress between entering the school and the end of Year 8 is outstanding. Students currently in Year 8 are working at levels that are on average a year ahead of those expected nationally for their age. Some students are almost two years ahead.
... you have also begun to use additional externally marked assessments to establish pupils’ capabilities. Your leaders use the accurate information gathered from these assessments to plan a broad curriculum that is precisely matched to the wide range of capabilities of pupils. Inspection evidence demonstrates that, as a consequence of this, and the high-quality teaching they receive, pupils make at least good and often better progress from their individual starting points across a wide range of subjects... Pupils thrive on the academic challenge that is presented to them.

23. Assessment in a period of transition – developing practice in middle schools
NMSF have been working in partnership with GL Assessment towards the development of a framework of assessments, which taken alongside a school’s own assessment data, will provide a basis for judging progress and achievement across the four middle school years. Some middle schools are now working together with their first schools to introduce these tests and share the results. While many middle schools are now adopting the use of the GL Assessments we recognise that they are expensive at a time when budgets are getting tighter. Some middle schools have chosen to stick with pre-existing arrangements, particularly where these are part of local system wide agreements.

24. Showing progress and achievement
Schools are developing a number of approaches:
Using GL Assessment tests in Year 5 to benchmark their intake (and compare with KS1 levels received from first schools)
Converting Year 8 GL Assessment outcomes into NC Levels – and then showing individual pupil progress from Year 5 levels in APS
Using the same Year 8 conversion to levels to plot progress from KS1 levels (with caveat that these KS1 levels will be inflated)
Using the Standardised Age Scores from GL Assessments in Years 5 to 8 to provide a comparison with the achievement with a large national sample (40,000 pupils).

25. Towards a system that gains to confidence of middle school leaders.
Middle school leaders are understandably anxious about the way in which decisions regarding coasting schools will be reached. Initial identification of middle schools will be based on KS2 data that is not a reliable indicator of middle school effectiveness. This means that effective and outstanding middle schools will be caught in the coasting school definitions. If it appears that a judgement about a school gives undue weight to KS2 data – then there needs to be an appeal or complaints procedure. It is only through working together in an open and transparent system that we can hope to develop a system that commands the confidence of school leaders and governors.

26. Towards a system that gains to confidence of middle school leaders.
We would hope that a more sophisticated approach to judgements about middle schools could be agreed from our joint experience this year:
“We are not a massive part of the education system but we educate enough children to warrant a more respectful handling of our uniqueness.
Is it beyond the wit of Government to have a proper assessment for over 100,000 children in the country who don't transfer school at age11? “
(Dorset middle school headteacher in a letter to his local MP)