1. Skills matching – is it time for a more proactive approach by the public employment services
John Mc Grath
16th June 2017

2. Basic hypothesis
The traditional approach of the PES to assisting job-seekers (i.e. successfully filling vacancies) is not sufficient to equip job-seekers with the competences and skills to access decent employment on a regular basis and that a more proactive approach is required which does not consider the filling of vacancies as the ultimate indicator of success.
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3. Transitions, 2015 Source: SLMRU Analysis of CSO QNHS data Unemployment
Unemployment
118,000
81,000
Inactivity
Inter- occupational 100,000
Intra- occupational 166,000
131,000
148,000
162,000
144,000
Source: SLMRU Analysis of CSO QNHS data
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4. Sources of filled vacancies, 2015
Moved from unemployment to employment
120,000
Moved from inactivity to employment
150,000
Changed employer; same occupation
165,000
100,000
Changed occupation; same employer

5. Transitions into employment by occupation, 2015 (ooo’s)
Source: SLMRU Analysis of CSO QNHS data
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6. Replacement and turnover rates 2015 (Expansion 2014-2015=2.4%)
Replacement
Turnover
Employment 2015 annual average
Retirement
Exits to inactivity and net exits due to inter-occ. movement
Intra-occupational
Intra- occ. and neutral inter-occ. movement
Managers
161,800
1.1%
4.2%
4.3%
6.5%
Professionals
354,800
0.9%
6.8%
7.0%
8.4%
Assoc. profs.
232,100
0.7%
-0.9%
7.8%
10.5%
Admin.
206,900
0.5%
4.6%
7.2%
10.8%
Trades
314,000
1.0%
5.7%
7.7%
9.1%
Personal services
159,500
0.8%
8.0%
10.0%
14.6%
Sales
162,900
13.4%
12.5%
17.2%
Operatives
146,700
6.1%
10.2%
13.3%
Elementary
213,800
1.3%
14.1%
11.7%
18.6%
Total
1,963,600
6.6%
13.0%
Source: SLMRU analysis of CSO data
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7. Replacement rates, 2015
Source: SLMRU Analysis of CSO QNHS data
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8. Occupations with high replacement rates
Sales
(sales assistants/ executives)
Carers
(child-minders)
Hospitality
(Chefs, waiters, bar staff, catering assistants)
Hairdressers
Admin
(general, receptionists, bank admin)
Labourers
(agricultural, construction, cleaning)
Operatives
(machine, food and construction)
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9. Turnover rates, 2015
Source: SLMRU Analysis of CSO QNHS data
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10. Occupations with high turnover rates
Sales
Sales accounts
Sales assistants
Customer service workers
Hospitality
Chefs
Waiters
Catering assistants
Bar staff
Construction
Carpenters
Plasterers
Electricians
Labourers
Other
Financial clerks
Care workers
Hairdressers
Truck drivers
Operatives (testers/ assemblers)
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11. Distribution of PES vacancies, 2015
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12. Share of temporary employees of all employees by age cohort; EU 28
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13. Transitions, 2015
46%
exited unemployment to permanent employment
55%
exited unemployment to fulltime positions
40%
exited inactivity to permanent employment
36%
exited inactivity to fulltime positions

14. The drivers underpinning rise of atypical employment
Customer does the work (IKEA model)..bar-coding…
Customer provides the capital (homes, vans, expertise)
Firm can shed costly permanent overheads
Transfer of cost to customer – increases in productivity
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15. The technological enablers underpinning rise of atypical employment
AI improving capacity of machine learning – partial automation of many jobs
Big data analytics enhancing computation power of ICT
Transferred to cloud (digital platforms)
Radically changing employer/employee relationships (e.g. GIG economy)
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16. The risk of job-loss due to automation
Source: OECD, Automation and independent work in a digital economy
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17. Level of tertiary education (30-34 years)
Source
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18. Job-hires over 30 years of age 2016
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19. Where did the over 30’s graduates go?
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20. Change in the proportion of employed graduates in medium-skilled or low-skilled jobs (25-29 year olds),
Source:
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21. What's to be done!
Rely less on vacancies as an indicator of skills required for enhancing employability
Use research to identify the skills required for regular, decent work
Proactively inform job-seekers of these skills
Offer and incentivise opportunities to acquire these skills
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22. What kind of skills required!
Cognitive skills: to solve problems
Entrepreneurial skills
STEM knowledge – manage technical processes
Empathy: the care industries; medicine, childcare, care of the elderly, therapists
Languages: to communicate in a genuinely global market place
Charm: sales occupations; entertainment
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23. What's to be done!
Mandatory modules on entrepreneurship, digital literacy, soft skills for most courses
Significant share of courses on:
STEM disciplines: coding, analytical ability, SAS, big data….
Selling skills: communication, languages, persuasion…..
Personal care skills: interpersonal skills, empathy……
Sport and entertainment skills: physical fitness, interpersonal skills…..
Career planning: pensions, health care
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24. If young people reach 35 years of age without having developed a suite of competences capable of securing regular, decent employment, it is very difficult to prevent them from sliding into a life characterised by intermittent, poorly paid jobs and low self-esteem
Its time for the European PES to adopt a more proactive policy in relation to the identification and delivery of the competences required for regular successful engagement in the marketplace
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