0. Can Global Air Transport Resume Growth?
Darren Peisley
Executive Manager Commercial Planning

1. Global financial crisis impact on business travel since mid 2008
International First / Business Class passenger growth (IATA member airlines)
Year-on-year (%Δ)
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sept-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sept-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sept-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Source: IATA Premium Traffic Monitor Jun 2009

2. Over time business travel returns to long run trend following demand shocks
International monthly arrivals and departures: Business purpose (Seasonally Adjusted)
Passengers (#)
18 year CAGR = 5%
GFC
/ Swine Flu
(24%)
1998 Asia
Financial Crisis
(20%)
2003 SARS
(30%)
2001 Dot-com
crash / 9-11
(18%)
Jun-91
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Pace of recovery in business travel largely dependent on view of future equity mkt / macroeconomic performance
Note: Current drop-off more protracted than previous crises
Source: ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures Data: Jan 91 – Apr 09

3. PAX growth of 2x GDP appears to hold for Australian international business travel
Australian international business travel PAX growth vs weighted world GDP growth1
PAX, GDP
growth (%)
PAX growth/GDP growth
Average 2.1 (excluding
negative years)
Average 1.1 (including negative years) 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 05 07 03 04 06 08
Weighted GDP growth
PAX growth
PAX growth/GDP growth
1. Weighted International GDP per Access Economics Business Outlook, June 2009 (50% Australia, 17% US, 15% UK, 6.5% Hong Kong, 4.5% Japan, 4% Germany, 3% New Zealand)

4. Correlation between business travel and equity markets in US
US Airline business class RPKs correlated with S&P 500 index (monthly, 2000–08)
RPK
R2=0.41
Sep-Dec 2001
Australia analysis also indicates that Business Travel demand correlates to equity markets with several months lag
S&P 500 index
Source: Consultant Analysis 4

5. Australian Consumer Sentiment and Business Confidence
Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index. NAB business confidence index