1. Zero-Emission Transport for the “Coolest Little Capital”
How transport in Wellington, New Zealand can change to meet the Paris Climate Agreement
Rehan Shaikh and Robert Vale
Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.
Abstract
Methods and Measures
The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere is resulting in an increase in the temperature of the Earth. The transport sector accounts for approximately 15% of overall greenhouse gas emissions. Global CO2 emissions from transport have grown by 45% from 1990 to 2007[1]. This research looking at transport in the city of Wellington, the capital of New Zealand makes clear that it is possible to have significantly lower emission urban transport without significant curtailing of mobility services in terms of per capita distance travelled while meeting the overall level of emissions that will satisfy the requirements of the recent Paris Climate Agreement.
New Zealanders’ rate of per capita vehicle ownership is the highest in the world[4].To allow the same trend of car ownership to continue will depend on limiting average vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) as well as CO2 emissions from each vehicle. Increasing wealth makes it likely to be difficult to reduce car ownership.
Could limitations on VKT combined with development in car technology possibly achieve the targeted CO2 emissions level of 142,000 tonnes? If technical efficiencies limit average emissions to 90 gm/km by 2050 then the LPV fleet will need to be limited to travel not more than 10 km per day each in order to stay within the targeted CO2 emissions. This allowable per day range of 10 km is less than half of the current daily travel distance of a car [4]
In New Zealand 30% of car trips are less than 2 km and nearly half are less than 6km [5]. Adopting the Dutch culture of walking and cycling for shorter distances could reduce car travel to 10 to 12 km per day travel from current 22 km of average per day travelling [4] in cities.
Expansion of public transport helps a 20% reduction in pkm mode share of light duty vehicles [6]. It is assumed that bus and train usage will be able to increase up to 2050 with increased occupancy meaning little or no additional overall emissions.
Business As Usual
Mitigation Measures
Introduction
In New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions transport accounts for 20% and out of this 89% is from road transport with 81% from the light passenger (LPV) and light commercial (LCV) vehicles fleets[2]. In this research it is proposed to consider a reduction of 80% by 2050 from current emissions levels, a slight increase on Wellington City Council's target. This 80% emissions reduction target means an allowable CO2 emissions level of 142,000 tonnes from LPVs. The problem is that in a business-as-usual situation by 2050 an LPV fleet of 440,000 vehicles with current (year 2015) average emission for light vehicles entering the fleet of 180 gm/km and current annual travel in Wellington of 12,231 km [3] will emit more than 900,000 tonnes of emissions, compared with the target of 142,000 tonnes. The question is how can these emissions be reduced and what might this mean for current patterns both of vehicle ownership and of use?
Figure 2. Wellington region travel mode scenario to year 2050.
Results and discussion
Table 1 presents the results assuming the whole fleet by 2050 represents the most efficient private vehicles of today. Table 1 also shows the emissions per km for a number of vehicle types and the "limit" that is needed to meet the emissions target if all other factors, such as VKT remain the same. This makes clear that technology will not be enough to maintain the existing level of transport provision. However, a combination of more walking and cycling (either pedal or electrically assisted), increased use of the existing public transport system and more car sharing would be sufficient to achieve the targeted 142,000 tonnes emissions from land transportation. Maximum car sharing in terms of full occupancy would make it easier to achieve the reduction target as would greater fuel efficiency and the introduction of EVs.
Very simple changes in infrastructure plus dedicated actions at Government level could make this dream of sustainable transport come true. Rationing of fuel supply and promotion of low-carbon modes would be good ways forward but the problem is which political party will come forward to propose such reforms? Time is demanding timely reforms before time runs out. For the sake of saving finite resources and environment perhaps politicians should think about fuel rationing before the time comes when they need to introduce food rationing.
2015
2050
Fleet 1000
VKT million
CO2 tonnes 1000
CO2
(gm/km)
Estimated Fleet 1000
Limit km/ year
Fleet VKT million
tonnes 1000
277
2712
700
260
440
Existing cars
2000
850
170
124
Existing efficient cars
3250
1420
100
Electric car
6500
2840 50
LIMIT
10800
4700 30
VW XL1 [8]
15500
6800 21
Bicycle[9]
20500 16
e- bike [9]
21500 15
Table 1. Wellington region current & targeted light vehicles transport trend.
Figure 1. Transportation sector 2nd largest contributor to CO2 missions [7]
Contact
References
Rehan P. Shaikh
School of Architecture, Victoria University of Wellington
Phone:
[1] IEA (2013) “World Energy Outlook 2013” OECD International Energy Agency Paris.
[2] NZ Govt (2015) “Electric Vehicles in New Zealand” Electric Vehicles a fact sheet to follow up in Minister’s visit. Ministry of Transport.
[3] Ministry of Transport (2015b) “New Zealand Household Travel Survey Regional Results , 2015 Wellington Ministry of Transport.
[4] EECA (2015) “Life Cycle Assessment of Electric Vehicles” Final Report Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority , Arup, Melbourne.
[5] NZTA (2011) “Resource 1-Facts and Figures Wellington” New Zealand Transport Authority available at figures.pdf
[6] Gouldson et al. (2015) “Accelerating Low- Carbon Development in the World’s Cities. The New Climate Economy, UK 2015.
[7] Miller J. and Facanha C. (2014) “The State of Clean Transport Policy; A 2014 Synthesis of Vehicle and Fuel Policy Development” The International Council On Clean Transport, Washington.
[8] VW (undated) XL1 Wolfsburg, Volkswagen Produktkommunikation
[9] ECF (2011) Cycle more often 2 cool down the planet Brussels, European Cyclists Federation, p10