1. Population Geography Chapter 2
For the 1st 200,000 years of modern man emergence from Africa-the population grew very slowly, then as the last ice age ended and the amount of habitable space expanded, population began to grow.
Chapter 2

2. Critical Issues in Population Geography
More people are alive today than at any other time in human history
The world’s population increased at a faster rate during the second half of the twentieth century than every before.
Virtually all population growth today occurs in less developed countries (LDCs)

3. Population
Demographics is the study of human population distribution and migration.
Key Issues of Demographics are:
Food Supply
Health and life expectancy
Status of women
Migration
Food Supply-in the 1960s the fear of rapid population growth outpacing food supply was a main concern.
The Green Revolution helped to ease the gap by introducing higher yield strains of rice, wheat and corn. Scientists continue to warn that an increase in population and the increased consumption of meat could lead to a global food crisis.
Health-infant mortality, child mortality and over all life expectancies are concerns of demographers.
Women-efforts to curb population growth have the greatest impact on women-some societies practice female infanticide or female children are malnourished or deprived of care. Where women are educated-birth rates decline.
Migration-the movement of millions of people across international boundaries and internal migration to evade poverty or war or environmental disasters are also concerns of demographers.
(train in Jakarta, Indonesia-one of the world’s most populous cities with 11 million people)

4. Earth: The Apple of Our Eye Activity
Slice an apple into quarters-remove ¾=oceans
Slice the quarter left (land) into 4 pieces set aside 3 = 2/3 are too rocky, wet, cold or covered by cities
1/32 left –peel the remaining piece=the topsoil surface that can grow food
People are NOT distributed evenly across the Earth. Population is clustered in the mid latitude climates and relatively sparse in the dry and polar climates or the highlands.

5. Compare the distribution of population and the global climates

6. Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
Population concentrations
Two-thirds of the world’s population are in four regions:
East Asia
South Asia
Europe
Southeast Asia
Exceptions in South America

7. Population Distribution
Figure 2-2

8. Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
Sparsely populated regions
The ecumene
Are that can sustain a population
People generally avoid:
Dry lands
Wet lands
Cold lands
High lands

9. Ecumene
Figure 2-4

10. ¾ of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the land.
Distribution-
¾ of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the land.
Very uneven distribution was intensified in the 20th cent. as population soared.
2/3 of the pop. lives near an ocean or river.
Carrying capacity-
the number of people that can be supported in an area given the technology of production.
Distribution-arable land is only a fraction of the Earth’s surface-
Often population maps are shown by using dots to represent populations.
We have always been unevenly distributed-but the uneven distribution intensified in the 20th century.
Numbers are very important-every 10 years since 1790 the US govt. has done an official nation-wide census or count of the population to determine representation in Congress and the distribution of federal aid. Mayors of big cities have been upset in recent years since inner cities are notoriously undercounted in the census. Why? The US Census Bureau also gathers world population data. United Nations officials also keeps statistics as does the World Bank and the Population Reference Bureau.
Growth rates, health and food availability are often estimates and are subject to error and inconsistency.

11. Where Is the World’s Population Distributed?
Population density
measure of the number of people per square mile/kilometer, etc.
Types of density
Arithmetic density
number of objects divided by the total land area. It is the most common statistic given
Physiological density
the number of people per unit of arable (farmable) land
Agricultural density
Number of farmers per/ arable land
Shows economic conditions
A high Agricultural density means that the land requires more farmers than a MDC, which usually means they’re poorer and not as well off.
Arithmetic Density is used when you want to compare different regions -> answers the “where” people are questions
Physiological Density, or “real density”: the higher the physical density, the greater the population’s pressure on available food resources --- a HIGH number means you have extremely unsuitable land; it shows most effectively, the size of population relative to available resources.
Ag density – tells you the efficiency with which the pop can grow food; is a good measure of how developed they are… if less farmers provides enough food, then you’re probably an MDC.

12. World Population Density

13. Physiologic Population Density –
number of people per unit area of agriculturally productive land (takes this map into account).

14. Physiologic Population Density Luxor, Egypt
Physiologic Population Density Luxor, Egypt. Egypt’s arable lands are along the Nile River Valley.
Moving away from the river a few blocks, the land becomes sandy and wind-sculpted.

15. Measures of Density
Table 2-1

16. Population Density Demo 5 chairs with 1 person= California
Arithmetic density is the total number of people divided by the total land area. The highest population densities are found in Asia, Europe and Central America.
Population Density Demo
5 chairs with 1 person= California
3 people= China
7 people= Japan
15 people= Taiwan
85 people= Hong Kong

17. Physiological density is the number of people per unit of arable land, which is land suitable for agriculture. Physiological density is a better measure than arithmetic density of the relationship between population and resources. Even physiological density can be misleading since it does not consider the productivity of the soil or the resources and expertise of the farmers.

18. Note that Egypt, Japan and India do not have a large number of people per square mile, but the arithmetic density is deceiving-note the difference in the physiological density. Egypt with only 2% arable land is the worst off. Japan with only 11% is also a very densely populated nation. Note the high physiological density for Switzerland-why? 98% of Egypt’s population lives on just 3% of the land. Notice the very high density for the Netherlands as well.
Notice that the US and Colombia have Arithmetic densities that are very similar, but the physiological density is very different. Why?

19. World Population Cartogram Countries named have at least 50 million

20. Major Population Concentrations
East Asia-1/4 of the world’s population is here-China with 1.3 billion.
extends into China along the Chang and Huang rivers, but most live on the east coast.
Most people are farmers, not city dwellers.

21. Major Population Concentrations
South Asia-the 2nd major population cluster.
Also extensions that follow the Ganges and Indus rivers.
There are 1.5 billion in South Asia
Mostly rural, farming high

22. Street scene in Kolkata, India

23. Major Population Concentrations
Europe-the 3rd in population with 700 million.
Europe is very urbanized with 75% to 90% living in cities.
Europe’s population distribution is not closely tied to terrain
Europe is not self-sustaining.
Population density varies from country to country.
Closely spaced houses in
Amsterdam, Netherlands

24. Major Population Concentrations
North America- East Central US and SE Canada
Unlike Europe, North America has large areas of sparsely populated regions.
Megalopolis Boston to Washington, D.C. which includes New York, Philadelphia and Boston.
Skyscrapers of Manhattan
New York

25. United States Population Distribution

26. Demographic Change is calculated by looking at the original population, adding births, subtracting deaths, adding immigrants and subtracting emigrants to equal total population.
Or OP = B – D + I – E = TP

27. Where Has the World’s Population Increased?
Natural increase rate
The percentage by which a population grows in a year
Crude birth rate (CBR)
The number of births per 1,000 population
Crude death rate (CDR)
The number of deaths per 1,000 population
Doubling time
The number of years needed to double a population
Dependency ratio-
the number of people who are too young or too old to work compared to the number of people old enough to work.
80 million people added to the world pop. each year.
Demographers estimate growth will stabilize in the 21st cent.
Crude Birth Rate is the total number of live births in a year per 1,000 people in a society. A crude birth rate of 20 means that for every 1,000 people in a country-20 babies are born over a one-year period.
Crude Death rate is the total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people.
Natural increase rate is the percentage by which a country grows each year. If the CBR is 20 and the CDR is 5 the NIR is 15 per 1000 or 1.5 this excludes migration or immigration.

28. Crude Birth Rate

29. Crude Death Rates show less world wide variability than do birth rates due to widespread availability of at least minimal health care and a generally youthful population in the developing nations where death rates are frequently lower than in “old age” Europe.
Crude Death Rates

30. Natural Increase

31. Food production is linear or arithmetic in growth
Population is exponential or geometric in growth
In 1995 the US growth rate was .7% which gives us a doubling time of 98 years.
Nigeria with a growth rate of 3% will double in just 20 years.
Africa’s growth rate up from 2.4% to 2.8% despite AIDS epidemic, the fastest growth rate in the world.
In Africa and in the Muslim realm cultural traditions and constricted opportunities for women contribute to the rapid population growth rate.
Doubling time-divide the % of increase by 70 to get the doubling time in years

32. World Population Growth
The reason that NIR can be low and population increase goes up is because growth of people is not linear, it is exponential:
2, 4, 8, 16, 32
If you take a number, 10 and increase it by 2%, you’ll get 10.2
If you take a number, 100 and increase it by 2%, you’ll get 102
A difference of 1.8, or 88% which if you apply it to 1 billion, is much bigger
gives you 2000; gives you 20,000
Figure 2-8

33. World Population Growth –
Rate of natural increase (does not take into account immigration and emigration).

34. After 2 centuries of slow growth, world population began explosive growth after WW II.
UN Projections are for global growth of nearly 9 billion by 2050.
The total may rise to over 11 billion by the end of the 21st century.
Greatest growth in the 1990s took place in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa.

35. Where Has the World’s Population Increased?
Fertility
Total fertility rate (TFR): average number of children a woman will have during child-bearing years (~15-49)
Mortality
Infant mortality rate (IMR)
Annual # of deaths of infants under 1
Life expectancy (at birth)
Average number of years a child born at that time will live
Mortality follows a pattern that is not that unusual – LDCs (Africa, many Asian countries, some SA countries) have high IMR, Low LE, and high TFR (meaning they have a LOT of babies!.

36. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per
TFR is the average number of children that would be born to each woman if during her child-bearing years, she bore children at the same rate as women of those ages actually did in a given year. It is age-adjusted, thus 2 nations with identical birth rates may have quite different fertility rates and prospects for growth.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per
woman is considered “replacement level.”

39. Figure 2-13
Figure 2-14
Notice that places with high TFRs tend to have high IMRs and that places with low TFRs have low IMRs.

40. Life Expectancy : The average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions.

41. Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15

42. What do all these stats mean?
Natural Increase (NR), Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total Fertility (TFR), Infant Mortality (IMR), and Life Expectancy (LE) ALL SHOW YOU THE SAME PATTERN OF POPULATION
A LDC (poor country) will have HIGH numbers for everything except LE, which will be low (in the 30’s – 50’s)
MDCs (rich countries) will have LOW numbers for everything, except LE, which will be high (72-85)
Crude Death Rate (CDR) is NOT included in the above; Many MDCs have high CDRs whereas LDCs have low
this will be explained when we talk about the Demographic Transition Model

43. Statistics practice

44. Human Issue: Maternal mortality

45. Maternal mortality ratio is the greatest health disparity between the developed and developing countries.
The World Health Organization reports that 600,000 women die each year from complications of pregnancy.
Social, cultural and economic barriers prevent women in the developing countries from receiving proper health care.
Issues facing pregnant women in the developing world are malnutrition, anemia, lack of access to maternal health care, pregnancy at a young age when the body is not fully mature. Women are considered expendable in parts of the world where they have low status.

46. Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Demographic transition
Four stages
Stage 1: Low growth
Agricultural revolution
Stage 2: High growth
Industrial Revolution
Stage 3: Moderate growth
Stage 4: Low growth
Zero population growth (ZPG)

47. Demographic Transition

48. Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Population pyramids
A bar graph showing a place’s age and sex composition
Shape of the pyramid is determined mainly by the CBR
Age distribution
Dependency ratio
Sex distribution
Sex ratio

49. Population Pyramids
Figure 2-19

50. Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Countries are in different stages of the demographic transition
Three examples:
Cape Verde = High growth
Stage 2 since the 1950s
Chile = Moderate growth
Stage 3 since the 1960s
Denmark = Low growth
Stage 4 since the 1970s

51. Why Is Population Increasing at Different Rates?
Demographic transition & world population growth
Most countries = stage 2 or stage 3 of the Demographic Transition
Stages 2 and 3 are characterized by significant population growth
No country is in stage 1 of the demographic transition
It is easier to cause a drop in the CDR than in the CBR

52. Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?
Malthus on overpopulation
An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798): Population grows geometrically while food supply grows arithmetically
Criticism of Malthus includes the following:
Pessimistic viewpoint
Failure to consider technological innovation
Marxist critique

53. In 1798 he published An Essay on the Principle of Population
Malthus 1st to argue that the world’s population was expanding more rapidly than food production.
He was the first to recognize exponential population growth.
Today those who share his concerns are Neo-Malthusians
Rev. Thomas Malthus
Thomas Malthus a political economist and a clergyman he published a short book called Essay on Population in 1789 in which he argued that food production would always be outpaced by population growth.
Positive checks on population growth include war, famine and disease.
As a conservative clergyman he disapproved of birth control by artificial means.

54. Thomas Malthus Population is growing faster than Earth’s food supply
Population increased geometrically; food supply increased arithmetically

55. Neo-Malthusians
Transfer of medical technology leads to a rapid increase in population in poor countries
World population is outstripping a wide variety of resources
Wars and civil violence will increase because of scarcity of food and other resources

56. Critics of Malthus’ supporters
Large populations stimulate economic growth
Poverty, hunger, and other social welfare problems are a result of unjust social and economic institutions (marxism)
NOT too many people

57. Malthus Theory and Reality
Food production increased more rapidly than predicted
Population didn’t quadruple
Population is increasing a slower rate

58. Food & Population, 1950-2000 Malthus vs. Actual Trends
Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

59. Malthus: Theory & Reality
Figure 2-25

60. Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?
As a whole, the world might not be facing a “Crisis”
Some regions do face significant issues
The Natural Increase Rate can decline for two reasons:
High CDR
Low CBR
Best way to control population is CBR

61. Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?
CBR has decline since 1990 in almost every country
Reasons for declining birth rates
Reliance on economic development
1) If women are educated, won’t raise children
2) Reduce need for ‘extra help’
Distribution of contraceptives
Reducing birth rates with contraception
Most “effective” and rapid method

62. Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?
Success of contraception varies based on region and country of either method
Religion is biggest “obstacle”
Political pressure can also be both positive and negative towards “Family Planning”

63. Family Planning
Figure 2-30

64. Epidemiologic Transition
Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?
Epidemiologic Transition

65. Epidemiologic Transition
World Health Threats
Epidemiologic Transition shows how a countries deaths from diseases will change with modernization and economic development
IT FOLLOWS THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

66. Epidemiologic Transition
Less economically developed countries (LEDC) have higher rates of infectious disease since medical care and standard of care are much lower than in MEDC.
In a More economically developed country, MEDC, people die not from infectious disease, but from “degenerative” diseases.
Infectious diseases are usually easy to treat, but people die from Cancer, Cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular issues

67. Epidemiologic Transition – Stage 1
Key Features
Occurs at the same time as the Stage 1 of the DTM
Shift from hunting-gathering to agriculture
Infectious disease is wide-spread
Why are diseases worse here than in hunter-gatherer?
People are sedentary, or in one place, meaning we come into contact with infected animals/humans

68. Epidemiologic Transition – Stage 2
Key Features
Generally occurs at the same time as Stage 2 of DTM
Shift into Industrial Revolution/Industrialization
Most infectious diseases are under control
Non-infectious, degenerating disease on the rise
USUALL, only wealthy nations.. LEDCs still suffer stage 1
Why is there a rise in non-infectious disease?
Medicine can control infectious
Wealthy nations can afford treatment
Life expectancy rises
This gives people more issues not seen before

69. Epidemiologic Transition – Stage 3
Key Features
Stage of human-created disease
Biological war, tobacco, cardiovascular, etc.
DECREASE in deaths from infectious disease
Disorders/issues that are a result of aging become common
Life expectancy rising, births falling (stage 2/3 of DTM)
Why is there a rise in non-infectious disease?
Same as Stage 2
People live longer and ‘wear-down’
The DTM stage is one between stage 2-3 shift, depending on the last bullet

70. Epidemiologic Transition – Stage 4
Key Features
Delayed degenerative disease
Major cause of death is cancer and heart-problems
Life expectancy is high, population growth low
Why is there a rise in non-infectious disease?
Same as Stage 2&3
Wealthy countries eat unhealthy food, shift from “need” to “want” in material culture
Stage 4 DTM

71. Epidemiologic Transition – Stage 5
Key Features
Reemergence of infectious/parasitic disease
Disease once thought gone, comes back
New disease emerges
Why is there a rise in infectious disease?
Medicine looses effectiveness
Antibiotics are rapidly becoming ineffective among MEDC countries due to overuse
Evolution
Contact with new regions/areas

72. The Most Lethal Infectious Disease: AIDS
Figure 2-33

73. The End.
Figure 3-1
Up next: Migration