1. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3

2. THR 12z (8 am EDT) – NAM Model

3. THR 12z (8 am EDT) – GFS Model

4. THR 12z (8 am EDT) – EUR Model

5. SPC OUTLOOK
REPORTS

6. L WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME GREATER THAN 70 MILES PER
HOUR ALONG WITH TORNADOES AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL INDIANA AND PARTS OF WESTERN OHIO. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
MAY AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
AN IMPRESSIVE AND UNSEASONABLE FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY EXTENDING EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
AT THE SFC...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETUP FROM NRN IL INTO
CNTRL IND DURING THE DAY WITH A WNW-ESE ORIENTED SHARP GRADIENT OF
INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

7. Weather terms Wind = movement of air
What causes wind? (use the word pressure)
Air moves due to pressure differences (PGF)
H L

8. Air Pressure -> Pressure Gradient Force
Higher prs = inside or outside can?
Lower prs = inside or outside ?
Why did this happen?
Air pressure is caused by air
We removed air from inside the can
- How did we do this?

9. How get rotation?
How get rising air?

11. THR 15z (11 am EDT) – NAM Model

12. THR 15z (11 am EDT) – NAM higher-res model
EWALL - GFS and HRRR

13. THR 18z (2 pm EDT) – CAPE NAM Model

15. CLOUDS - EWALL
MOS - EWALL
MOS - tabular

16. The Other Dudes ….
NWS
Accu Wx
Wx Channel
SPC

17. Penn State Weather Camps
Basic Weather Forecasting Guidelines
Sat I – Sat II – Sat III - NWS - NHC - Radar - Radar
sfc. map 1 - sfc. map 2 – sfc map 3