1. Lecture #8 Foreign Policy Decision Making
Part I: Leaders’ Beliefs and Personal Characteristics

2. Introduction
Models that focus on regime types, power distributions, and other structural forces identify important causal factors in IR

3. Introduction
But individual human beings (particularly elite decision-makers such as presidents, prime ministers, kings, and dictators) can sometimes have an important impact on foreign policy and IR:
Leaders’ beliefs and personalities may affect policy
Psychological biases that affect all humans will affect these key decision-makers and may shape outcomes in IR (misperceptions, groupthink, etc.)

4. Conditions under which leaders’ beliefs/personalities are more likely to influence foreign policy
Leader has an interest/expertise in foreign policy (Bush 41 vs. Clinton)

5. Conditions under which leaders’ beliefs/personalities are more likely to influence foreign policy
Dramatic means of assuming power

6. Conditions under which leaders’ beliefs/personalities are more likely to influence foreign policy
Ambiguous external situation (leaders must define the situation and in the absence of compelling evidence they rely on their preconceptions to do so)

7. Conditions under which leaders’ beliefs/personalities are more likely to influence foreign policy
Crisis situations (short decision time, high threat, surprise): decision-making authority contracts upward to a small group of leaders

8. Conditions under which leaders’ beliefs/personalities are more likely to influence foreign policy
Greater institutional authority over foreign policy (e.g., presidential vs. parliamentary systems)

9. Conditions under which leaders’ beliefs/personalities are more likely to influence foreign policy
Foreign policy bureaucracy is less developed

10. Types of beliefs and personal characteristics that may affect foreign policy decision-making
Operational codes (Holsti, Walker)
Images (Herrmann)
Problem representations (Sylvan)
Conceptual/integrative complexity (Hermann, Tetlock, Suedfeld)
Locus of control
Motives: need for power, achievement, affiliation
Orientation toward constraints (Keller): “constraint challengers” vs. “constraint respecters”

11. Types of beliefs and personal characteristics that may affect foreign policy decision-making
Operational codes (Holsti, Walker)
Philosophical beliefs: the nature of world politics and character of one’s adversaries
Instrumental beliefs: which policy instruments and approaches are most effective

12. Types of beliefs and personal characteristics that may affect foreign policy decision-making
Images (Herrmann)
3 dimensions: threat/opportunity, relative power, relative culture
Resulting images: ally, enemy, colony, degenerate, imperial, barbarian, rogue
Each image is associated with a specific “script” of likely policy actions

13. Types of beliefs and personal characteristics that may affect foreign policy decision-making
Problem representations (Sylvan)
Ontology (world view) shapes problem representation, which in turn determines which options are generated as viable

14. Types of beliefs and personal characteristics that may affect foreign policy decision-making
Conceptual/integrative complexity (Hermann, Tetlock, Suedfeld)
Affects openness to information and deliberativeness

15. Types of beliefs and personal characteristics that may affect foreign policy decision-making
Locus of control
Affects risk-taking propensity

16. Types of beliefs and personal characteristics that may affect foreign policy decision-making
Motives: need for power, achievement, affiliation
Affect reliance on cooperative vs. competitive strategies, arms control, use of force, etc.

17. Types of beliefs and personal characteristics that may affect foreign policy decision-making
Orientation toward constraints (Keller): “constraint challengers” vs. “constraint respecters”