1. Prof. M. Cammett POLS 1270 April 3, 2012
Development and Underdevelopment in the Middle East: Paths and Trajectories
Prof. M. Cammett
POLS 1270
April 3, 2012

2. The Glorious Ottoman Past

3. Reversal of Fortune in the Middle East. Annual Growth in GDP/cap
Reversal of Fortune in the Middle East? Annual Growth in GDP/cap. by Region

4. Understanding development and underdevelopment in the MENA
What is “development”?
How do we/should we measure it?

5. Alternative Measures of Development

6. Pct. Population Living on $2/Day

7. Income v. Human Development as Measures of Development
Literacy Rates

8. The MENA Big State (Government Spending/GDP)

9. MENA Underdevelopment: Industrialization in Comparative Perspective
Manufactured Exports/Total Merchandise Exports

10. From opulence . . .

11. . . . to poverty and chaos.

12. Typology of Political Economies in the MENA
Oil
Non-Oil
Monarchies
Bahrain
Iran (pre-1979)
Kuwait
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Jordan
Morocco
Republics
Algeria
Iran (2005-)
Iraq (pre-2003)
Egypt
Syria
Tunisia ( )
Quasi/Democracies
Iran ( )
Iraq (2003-)
Libya (2011-)
Lebanon
Tunisia (2011-)
Turkey

13. Measuring “Development”
Standard measures: Income, growth, industrialization
GNI/Cap.
in MENA

14. Post-Independence Development Trajectories: The Single-Party Republics
General strategies:
Import-substitution industrialization (ISI)
Welfare regimes
Populist rhetoric and policies
 Citizen expectations & obligations
Examples:
Egypt ( )
Algeria ( )
Syria ( s)
Iraq ( s)
Tunisia ( )

15. Control of Corruption (2008)
No ISI, dependence on oil earnings
Anti-populism, private sector development
But big public sectors, SOEs, welfare states
Labor force characteristics & challenges of “indigenization”
Minimal political liberties, but relative respect for rule of law
Oil Monarchies
Control of Corruption (2008)
Source: Kaufman, et al. (2009)

16. Non-Oil Monarchies Relative political freedoms
Liberal economic rhetoric/policies, private sector development
Less generous welfare regimes

17. Economic Crisis . . .
Total Debt as a Percentage of GDP

18. . . . and the Mixed Record of Reform
GDP Growth (Annual %)