1. Overzicht van ervaringen
Social CBS
(social media studies)
Overzicht van ervaringen
Netherlands workshop, 10 Sept Heerlen
Piet Daas

2. Social media Dutch are very active on social media!
Around 60% according to a surveyna altijd bij zich en staat vrijwel altijd aan
Steeds meer mensen hebben een smartphone!
Mogelijke informatiebron voor:
Welke onderwerpen zijn actueel:
Aantal berichten en sentiment hierover
Als meetinstrument te gebruiken voor: . 2
Map by Eric Fischer (via Fast Company)

3. Social media messages Dutch are very active on Social Media
What kind of ‘information’ is shared?
Can it be used?
It is quickly available!
Discuss the results of two studies
1) Content:
- Dutch Twitter messages: a ‘sample’ of 12 million
2) Sentiment
- Sentiment in Dutch social media messages: ‘all’ > 3.5 billion 3

4. Dutch Twitter topics 4 12 million messages (3%) (7%) (3%) (10%) (7%)
(5%)
(46%) 4
12 million messages

5. Sentiment in Dutch social media
About the data
Dutch firm that continuously collects ALL public social media messages written in Dutch
Dataset of more than 3.5 billion messages!
Covering June 2010 till the present
Between 3-4 million new messages are added per day
About sentiment determination
‘Bag of words’ approach
List of Dutch words with their associated sentiment
Added social media specific words (‘FAIL’, ‘LOL’, ‘OMG’ etc.)
Use overall score to determine sentiment
Is either positive, negative or neutral
Average sentiment per period (day / week / month)
(#positive - #negative)/#total * 100%

6. Daily, weekly, monthly sentiment

7. Sentiment per platform
(~10%)
(~80%)

8. Platform specific results

9. Social media sentiment
Schematic overview
Previous month Current month
Vorige maand Maand
Day Day Day Day 22-28
Consumer Confidence
Publication date (~20th)
Sentiment
Social media sentiment

10. Results of comparing various periods
Consumer Confidence
Facebook Facebook Facebook
+ Twitter * Twitter
*cointegration
LOOCV results

11. Overall findings Correlation and cointegration Granger causality
1st ‘week’ of Consumer confidence usually has 70% response
Best correlation and cointegration with 2nd ‘week’ of the month
Highest correlation 0.93* (all Facebook * specific word filtered Twitter)
Granger causality
Changes in Consumer confidence precede changes in Social media sentiment
For all combinations shown!
Only tried linear models so far
Prediction
Slightly better than random chance
Best for the 4th ‘week’ of month

12. C C S S I I Overall findings (2)
How are Confidence and Sentiment related?
‘Mood of the nation’ and the integral emotion in the Appraisal-Tendency Framework
Basis for a rapid sentiment based indicator
Could be produced every month on or shortly after the 15th day
Could even be produced on a weekly basis (Volatile!)
But, what am I comparing here!
Units differ for Consumer confidence and Sentiment
Confidence: Response of a representative sample of households
Sentiment: Messages produced during a specific period
?Representatives? future studies will focus on this phenomenon! I C I C S S

13. To do Continue to determine development over time
Is the association spurious or not?
What is the contribution of sentiment data on cons. conf survey data?
Message based sentiment -> Username based sentiment
- Different?
Identify users (profiling techniques; gender, age etc.)
- ‘NSA’ related work
Experimental figure?

14. Thank you for your attention !
@pietdaas