1. Pakistan Economy in the light of Business Cycles- 2009-14
Muhammad Arif
Editor At Large The Financial Daily
Former Head of FSCD State Bank, Head of Research in Arif Habib Investments and professor on Finance in different Universities including KASBIT

2. Introduction
The term business cycle (or economic cycle) refers to economy-wide fluctuations in production, trade and economic activity in general over several months or years in an economy organized on free-enterprise principles These fluctuations occur around a long-term growth trend, and typically involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth (an expansion or boom), and periods of relative stagnation or decline (a contraction or recession).

3. Business Cycles
the Kitchin inventory cycle of 3–5 years (after Joseph Kitchin)
the Jugular fixed investment cycle of 7–11 years (often identified as 'the' business cycle)
the Kuznets infrastructural investment cycle of 15–25 years (after Simon Kuznets also called building cycle])
The Kondratiev wave or long technological cycle of 45–60 years (after Nikolai Kondratiev).

4. Background
With globalization the economic activities are interconnected and booms and dips effect every part of the worlds with less or higher magnitude. Since 1930’s recession the world has faced five recessions. Four short terms and one that started in 2008 have extended up to To understand the problem one has to understand the basics of the Kitchen inventory cycle of 3–5 years (after Joseph Kitchen),the Jugular fixed investment cycle of 7–11 years (often identified as 'the' business cycle),the Kuznets infrastructural investment cycle of 15–25 years (after Simon Kuznets also called building cycle]),The Kondratiev wave or long technological cycle of 45–60 years (after Nikolai Kondratiev).
The paper deals with understanding Business cycles dynamics i.e. better to understand the coming possible implications on macro indicators like countries as Pakistan in 7-11 years cycle

5. Methods and Procedures used in the paper
Basically going through qualitative analysis and not using quantitative methods that provide only benchmarks. In this paper historical data has been used to predict about FY

6. Business cycles in pakistan

7. Macro indicators 2008-2012 period 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
World GDP growth %
3.1
-0.7
4.9
3.7
4.0
World CPI
5.6
2.7
4.8
Pakistan GDP growth
5.68
-1.6
3.8
3.5
Total investment growth
15.43
0.92
0.84
-4.7
-8.6
Discount rate 13 14
14.0
12.0
10.5
Average change in CPI
20.0
10.1
13.7
11.0
Direct Taxes
Mn PKR
387.5
496.1
540.4
602
705,756
Indirect Taxes
621.9
755.4
942.6
955
981,228
Budget deficit
% of GDP
8.3
4.2
4.7
6.6
8.5
Total export
Mn USD
20,125
22,741
25,925
29,814
24.6
Total imports
35,411
38,952
37,004
37,744
40.0
Trade deficit
(15,286)
(16,211)
(11,079)
(7,930)
(15.4)
CA Balance
-8.4
-9.3
-3.5
0.2
-4.6
USD-PKR Exchange rate
USD/PKR
82.062

8. Marco indicators 2013-2014 period 2013 2014 World GDP growth % 3.5 4.0
World CPI
3.0
Pakistan GDP growth
3.7
4.7
Total investment growth
-4.7
0.1
Discount rate
9.5
10.0
Average change in CPI
11.0
Direct Taxes
Mn PKR
810,715
910.2
Indirect Taxes
1002,975
122,233
Budget deficit
% of GDP
4.5
Total export
Mn USD
25.8
25.2
Total imports
42.9
41.9
Trade deficit
(17.1)
(16.7)
CA Balance
-1.9
0.9
USD-PKR Exchange rate
USD/PKR
99.0
96.2