1. The State of Rural Pennsylvania 2016

3. Rural Pennsylvania, 1979-2016 1979-87 was disastrous
1987-mid 2000s rural PA rebounded
Great Recession and slow recovery since
Softened in some rural counties by Shale boomlet…but now bustlet

6. Today’s Rural PA Snapshot
Rural share of PA population falling again
Rural income 75% to 80% of urban
Heavy dependence on transfer income
Rural unemployment back down near urban (5.6% vs. 5.1% in 2015)
Educational attainment gap remains
Rural manufacturing job loss has continued – with shift to low-paid services

11. Industry Composition
Rural PA has held onto a higher manufacturing job share…but manufacturing has been replaced more by low-end services
Business, financial, educational services only 22% of rural jobs, versus 31% of urban

14. Despite Challenges – Rural PA Has Been a Region of Opportunity
Harvard-Berkeley 2013 study divided 6.3 million born in into 741 regions
Pittsburgh got great press for high upward mobility but…
…parts of rural PA did even better

16. Why Did Rural PA Do So Well?
Two variables the authors highlighted as correlated with upward mobility were
the size and dispersion of the middle class
the quality of K-12 schools
Rural Pennsylvania had
a strong manufacturing base, strong unions, little economic segregation
good K-12 schools

17. But Will Upward Mobility Persist?
Manufacturing job share and union density still falling
And what about public policies?
Real cuts in K-12 education (2.9% more for rural K to 2014 vs. 7.2% inflation & faster mandated hikes
Still no funded rural community college
No minimum wage hike, even tho’ it benefits rural workers
6th most regressive state/local tax system: fixing that could raise revenue and lower rural taxes
No state manufacturing strategy

19. Key Questions
Can we hold rural electeds responsible if they support policies that destroy opportunity for their region and their young people (“jobs that don’t pay, schools that don’t teach,…)
Can a rural campaign boost support for school, community college, wage, tax, and industry policies that benefit the region?
What are the elements of that campaign and what funds or existing capacity might it tap?