1. Fertility and the family

2. Fertility: Production of a live birth (natality)
measured by number of children born to a woman.
Parity: Number of children born alive to a woman.
Gravidity: Number of pregnancies a woman has had whether or not they produce a live birth.

3. Fecundity
Physiological ability to bear children, that is, the ability to deliver a child.
Sterility :
Inability of a woman to conceive a pregnancy.

4. FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILITY
Age at marriage.
Duration of marriage.
Spacing of children.
Education.
Economic status.
Religion and Culture.
Breastfeeding.
Preference for males.

5. Fertility Measurement: Sources of Data
1- Censuses
2- Vital registration systems
3- Nationally representative sample surveys
4- World Fertility Surveys (WFS),
5- Demographic and Health Surveys

6. Fertility Measures 1- The child/women ratio = Child aged 0-4
X 1000
C/W ratio =
Women aged 15-49
From the table below
C/W ratio =
X 1000

7. Females(000) Males (000) Age Groups 70 71 0-4 61 64 5-9 50 55 10 - 1448 51 41 43 32 37 29 31 22 28 19 21 11 15 10
More 50

8. =698.01/100
Disadvantages
1- It relates births to all women aged irrespective of being married.
2- Does not allow for differences in the fertility of women of different ages.

9. 3- Affected by mortality
3- Affected by mortality. Numerator included only surviving children with number affected by mortality.
Advantage:
1- Simple to calculate. It requires only data about the age and sex structure of the population under study.

10. 2- Crude Birth Rate (CBR):
Births in year
X 1000
= CBR
Population at mid-year

11. Country
Crude birth rate
Total fertility rate
Per 1000
Saudi Arabia
22.1
3.03
Yemen
38.6
5.48
Palestine
35.9
4.65
Iraq
36.6
4.86
Bahrain
20.7
2.63
Emirates
14.0
2.36
Oman
22.2
2.52
Qatar
14.1
1.92
Jordon
4.1
3.27

12. Age specific fertility rate
Saudi Arabia
Age specific fertility rate
1,000
11.6
70.9
217.5
122.4
106.0
53.0
23.7

13. Example:
For a region:
The total population at the mid year 1427 H was
The number of women (15-49) was
The total live births during the same year was child
36000
X 1000
= 47.2/ 1000
= CBR
763000

14. Disadvantages:
1- All the population included in the denominator is not exposed to the risk of pregnancy
2- are not necessarily comparable through time, because of the influence of changing age structure.

15. However, it is useful in
1- making annual comparisons
2- to detect trends in fertility in a given country and
3- in comparing different populations.

16. Factors affecting the CBR:
Factors affecting the Live births
Number of females specifically those years
The age of marriage
Level of infant and preschool mortality rates
Socioeconomic level of the country

17. Economic value of children and lower expenses of rearing children
Cultural and religious factors
Knowledge, attitudes and motives for adopting or rejecting family planning.

18. Crude Birth Rate for Saudi Arabia
(2000 – 2011)

19. Fertility rate differs by social variable:
1- Religious group
2- Social class:
lower class have higher fertility.
3- Region:
People in rural area tend to have lower fertility.
4- Country: people in poor countries tend to have higher fertility.

20. Fertility rates can be affected by:
1- Public policy:
Governments pressure couples to have fewer kids.
2- Culture:
Religion and contraception
3- Economics:
Expense of having kids in industrial versus agricultural societies.

21. 4- Technology:
Availability of effective contraceptives.
Fertility and Health
1- Higher fertility can increase maternal mortality.
2- Continuous child-bearing can have negative impact on maternal health.

22. 4- Closely spaced births ( less than 18 months apart) and low birth weight babies (less than 2.5 kg) at higher risk.
5- Problems of marriage at young age.

23. Rate of natural increase (RNI):
Births – deaths in a year
RNI =
X 1000
Population at mid-year
In the previous example, let number of deaths in the region be 30,000. Then:
36000 – 30,000
=7.86/1000
RNI =
763000

24. Thus, the rate of natural increase is 8 per thousand.
The world’s population had a rate of natural increase estimated at 14/1000, but there were great differences between countries.
The more developed countries had rates of only 1 per thousand compared to 16/1000 for the developed countries.

26. Rate of natural increase
Country
Natural increase
1,000
Saudi Arabia
18.39
Yemen
28.40
Palestine
23.73
Iraq
Bahrain
14.15
Emirates
11.6
Oman
18.89
Qatar
9.13
Jordon
19.65
Kuwait
14.14
Rate of natural increase

27. Rate of population growth
Crude Birth Rate - Crude Death Rate
= crude rate of natural increase.
This rate is based on naturally occurring events – births and deaths.

28. For example if the CBR=46, CDR=18 per 1000 population and population size of 25,460 in 1998, then:
Crude rate of natural increase =
= 28 per 1000 = 2.8% per year.
The net effect of migration is assumed to be zero.

29. Population at mid-year for
General Fertility Rate (GFR):
Live births in year
= GFR
Population at mid-year for
females aged 15-49
36000
= GFR
X 1000
= 241.6/1000
149000
The range of possible values is from 50 to 300.

30. That means: Every 1000 women in the reproductive age add 242 live birth.

31. Disadvantages:
1- More data is needed to calculate GFR than CBR, since we have to know the age composition of the female population between
2- Can not be used for comparison between populations due to the substantial variation within the reproductive age range.

32. Women at the reproductive
Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
Live births for women at the reproductive age X
ASD =
X 1000
Women at the reproductive
age x at mid-year
The below table shows the distribution of Saudi women according to live birth during the past year, SFHS 1996, Calculate the ASFR and the TFR

33. ASBR
Births
Women
Age Groups
49.9/1000
246
4928
201/1000
621
3088
269.9/1000
679
2516
263.8/1000
511
1937
191.3/1000
350
1830
103.1/1000
114
1106
67.7/1000 54
798

34. For example, ASBR for the interval (20 – 24), can be calculated as:
Live births to women aged 20-24
ASFR20-24 =
X 1000
Mid-year population for
Women aged 20-24
621
= 201/1000
X 1000
3088

35. Uses:
For comparisons in fertility behavior at different ages
For comparison of fertility at different ages over time
For comparison of fertility across countries/populations

36. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Calculated from the set of age-specific fertility rates.
A major advantage of the TFR it produces a single summary figure from seven age-specific fertility rates.
It measures “average family size”

37. Total fertility rate (TFR):
Sum of ASFRs x 5
= TFR
1000
Note that:
1- Each ASFR usually relates to 5 years. It can be though of as the average of the rates for each of the 5 years. It is necessary to multiply the

38. Using the previous table, TFR is:
Five-year rate by 5.
2- The TFR is always expressed per woman, where as ASFRs are often expressed per Then it is necessary to divide by 1,000.
Using the previous table, TFR is:
( ) x 5
1000
= 5.73

39. Meaning
The average number of children that would be born to a woman by the time she ended childbearing if she were to pass through all her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with current age-specific fertility rates.
In our example, the average number of children or family size is 6.

40. The number, which ranges from more than 7 children per woman in developing countries in Africa to around 1 child per woman in Eastern European and highly-developed Asian countries.
and bear children in accordance with current age-specific fertility rates.

41. Total Fertility Rate Saudi Arabia (2000-2011)

42. Gross Reproduction Rate
For TFR we considered population replacement in terms of total children born.
Proliferation of people is measured by number of female births because they represent the generation that bears the responsibility of reproduction in the future.

43. The gross reproduction rate resembles the TFR, except it measures the number of daughters per woman, instead of the total number of children.
Calculation of GRR =
= GRR
Sum of ASFRs for daughters x 5
X1000
1000

44. ASFRs daughters 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44
Female births
Women
Age Groups
24.6/1000
121
4928
98.1/1000
303
3088
131.6/1000
331
2516
128.5/1000
249
1937
93.4/1000
171
1830
50.6/1000 56
1106
32.6/1000 26
798

45. = GRR
( ) x 5
1000
2797
= 2.797 =
1000

46. Gross reproduction rate Mean age of child bearing
Country
Gross reproduction rate
Net reproduction rate
Mean age of child bearing
Saudi Arabia
2.13
2.26
30.46
Yemen
3.09
2.59
34.16
Palestine
2.99
2.84
31.78
Iraq
2.60
2.10
32.40
Bahrain
1.7
31.20
Emirates
2.22
Oman
3.05
2.96
34.24
Qatar
2.40
Jordon
1.83
1.72
30.22
Kuwait
2.38
2.35
29.95