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Operational Verification at HNMS
Flora Gofa WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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COSMOGR Grid Area Add COSMOGR and high res graph… COSMOGRhr: 0.02deg
COSMOGR: deg COSMOGR Grid Area WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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Temp 2m - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer
Underestimation of Temp, mainly in winter. error ~2o, worse with 7km by ~0.5o Clear diurnal cycle WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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Wind Speed - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer
Overestimation of wind (DJF,SON) 2-2.5deg bias similar attitude of 2 models WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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WINTER Wind Speed 2m Temp
Underestimation of Temp during midday hours, overetimation of wind, large error in analysis field WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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2m Temp SUMMER Wind Speed WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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DewP Temp - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer
Underestimation of DewT Bias ~2.5deg, lower in the winter 3km output reduced error WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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Similar error for all seasons and for both models
Cloud Cover - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer Similar error for all seasons and for both models WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km
FALL 60-70% POD , above 50% up to 1mm, drops fast after Higher POD,FAR for HR model WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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Lower POD in the winter for both models
12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km WINTER Lower POD in the winter for both models WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km
FALL Slight overestimation for lower thresholds Similar ETS for both resolutions WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km
WINTER Clear overestimation for lower thresholds Similar ETS for both resolutions WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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Conditional Verification
WAM Conditional Verification Extracting information for relevant performance of weather parameters The input from modelers and forecasters is necessary for identifying and testing hypotheses. WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
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2mT vs 2mT in overcast conditions 2mT overcast/no wind
Fall Winter Spring Summer
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2mT vs 2mT in skyclear conditions 2mT skyclear/no wind
Fall Winter Spring Summer
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CAPE>50 CAPE<50 Very high POD values for unstable conditions, FAR not so different
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CAPE>50 CAPE<50 WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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WS - Z0>2.5 WS - Z0<2.5 Wind Speed with respect to Roughness Length Strong underestimation of wind in positions with small roughness length and increased error WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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Td, 2mT – dry soil Td, 2mT – wet soil
Td: Higher error in dry soil and larger underestimation 2mT: Higher error in wet soil and larger understimation W_SO Water content of first soil layer(kg/m2) 1cm. WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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Post-processed Products Verification
Kalman filtering is applied operationally to NWPs at the nearest model location: 2m maximum and minimum temperature forecasts Statistical analysis of maximum and minimum values of these parameters (both modeled and filtered)
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Upper Air Verification
WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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GEOPOTENTIAL Winter Spring Summer WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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TEMPERATURE WInter Spring Summer WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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Wind Speed WInter Spring Summer WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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Relative Humidity WInter Spring Summer
WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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Wave Atmospheric Model
Buoys Wave Atmospheric Model Driven by COSMOGR (7km) output Verification of significant wave height/direction
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Weather Defined Verification
WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Rome 2011
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1. Zonal cyclonic 5. N-NE cyclonic 9. S-SE cyclonic WAM |Graphs??
2. Zonal anticyclonic 6. N-NE anticyclonic 10. S-SE anticyclonic 3. N-NW cyclonic 7. S-SW cyclonic 11. Cut-off 4. N-NW anticyclonic 8. S-SW cyclonic 12. Stationary anticyc 28
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Stationary Anticyclone
Weather Classification: 01/09/ /06/2011=577days 1 Zonal cyclonic 2 Zonal anticyclonic 3 N-NW cyclonic 4 N-NW anticyclonic 5 N-NE cyclonic 6 N-NE anticyclonic 7 S-SW cyclonic 8 S-SW anticyclonic 9 S-SE cyclonic 10 S-SE anticyclonic 11 Cut-off 12 Stationary Anticyclone
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Temp 2m Higher underprediction of T2m for northern systems (NW, NE) and lower for southern systems
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Wind Speed 10m Reduced RMSE for windspeed in almost all AC circulations
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For southerly weather systems the cloud cover amount is greater overestimated….
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Annual FBI exhibits underpretection in the lower precipitation thresholds when present is an anticyclonic circulation
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ETS scores slightly better for SW systems
Annual ETS scores slightly better for SW systems
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Thank you!
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