1. Economic Outlook 2018
Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce Friday, September 29, 2017 Jim Huntzinger, Chief Investment Officer | BOK Financial Corporation

2. Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr. +
SA, %
Unemployment rate down to just 4.4%. Decelerating job growth from here would be typical in 2H of a business cycle.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

3. All Employees: Total Nonfarm Change – Period to Period SA, Thous.
Employment
All Employees: Total Nonfarm
Change – Period to Period SA, Thous.
Job creation has been positive, steady, but modest.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

4. U.S. & European Unemployment
EA 19: Unemployment Rate
SA, %
U.S.: Civilian Unemployment Rate
Now global synchronized growth.
Europe had the “double dip” that the U.S. did not.
Euro
USA
Source: EUROSTAT, BLS

5. Employment Quits survey confirms robust job market.
JOLTS: Quits: Total
SA, Thous.
Quits survey confirms robust job market.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

6. % Change – Year to Year SA, 1982-84=100
Inflation
CPI-U: All Items
% Change – Year to Year SA, =100
Today inflation is not too hot, not too cold, contributing to a “Goldilocks” growth environment (aka growth with little inflation).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

7. NFIB: Percent Reporting Now is a Good Time to Expand
It’s Now A Better Time
To Expand?
NFIB: Percent Reporting Now is a Good Time to Expand
SA, %
Small businesses say it’s a good time to expand.
Source: National Federation of Independence Business

8. Conference Board: Consumer Confidence
SA, 1985=100
U.S. Consumer Confidence is hanging in there despite international and domestic unrest.
Source: The Conference Board

9. Average Hourly Earnings
Avg. Hourly Earnings: Prod. & Nonsupervisory: Total Private Industries
% Change – Year to Year SA, $/Hour
Wages moving higher…but slowly.
A long way from the danger zone.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

10. Retail Sales & Food Services % Change – Year to Year SA, Mil.$
Retail sales impacted by hurricanes…
Retail sales fell
-0.2% m/m and the prior month was revised down. Auto sales declined -1.6% m/m.
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

11. Industrial Production Index
SA, 2012=100
…And so was industrial production.
IP fell -0.9% m/m. Declines were experienced across all major good types and industrial group.
Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics

12. Earnings The greatest story never told: earnings growth.
S&P 500 TraiIing 12 Month
Y/Y Earnings Growth
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
The greatest story never told: earnings growth.
5.1%
3.7%
0.1%
-0.8%
-2.9%
-3.8%
-3.5%
-4.3%
-4.4%
1Q’15 2Q’15 3Q’15 4Q’15 1Q’16 2Q’16 3Q’16 4Q’16 1Q’17
Source: Bloomberg-Strategas Research Partners, LLC

13. Demographic Trends Shaping The U.S.
Source: Yahoo

14. Demographic Trends Shaping The U.S.
About A Third Of Young Adults In the U.S. Are Living With A Parent
Millennials are the United States’ largest living generation.
There are 79.8 million Millennials (18-35).
There are 74.1 million Baby Boomers (52-70).
Millennials have been slow to adopt many of the traditional markers of adulthood. For the first time in 130 years, young adults are more likely to be living in their parents’ home.
Percent of 18- to 34-Year-olds by Living Arrangement
Married or Cohabiting in Own Household
62% 48 43
32.1
Living in Parents’ Home
31.6 20 23 23
Source: PEW Research Center

15. Millennials Moving Less
Source: Yahoo

16. Millennials Are Moving Less
Millennials Are Less Likely To Move Than
Prior Generations Of Young Adults
Percent of 25- to 35-Year-Olds Who Moved in the Previous Year
Census Bureau data show that only 20% of Millennials (25-35) reported they moved in considerable fewer than previous generations.
Millennials less likely to be married.
Millennials less likely to own a home.
Millennials more likely to be childless.
Millennials in 2016
Millennials in 2016
20%
Gen Xers in 2000
26%
Late Boomers in 1990
27%
Early Boomers in 1981
25%
Silents in 1963
26%
Source: PEW Research Center

17. Key Themes
Global growth positive and accelerating.
U.S. growth in 2018…2%-2 ½%
Global monetary policy is extremely stimulative, U.S. has started to normalize – caution.
U.S. wages are modestly accelerating.
S&P earnings new high.
Pro-growth tax, regulation and infrastructure derailed or delayed?
No recession in sight.
The beat goes on.
“It’s tough to make predictions…especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra

18. DISCLOSURES
The information provided in this was prepared by Jim Huntzinger, Chief Investment Officer of BOK Financial Corporation.  The information provided herein is intended to be informative and not intended to be advice relative to any investment or portfolio offered through BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF). The views expressed in this commentary reflect the opinion of the author based on data available as of the date this report was written and is subject to change without notice.  This commentary is not a complete analysis of any sector, industry or security. Individual investors should consult with their financial advisor before implementing changes in their portfolio based on opinions expressed.  The information provided in this commentary is not a solicitation for the investment management services of any BOKF subsidiary.
© BOK Financial. Services provided by BOKF, NA. Member FDIC. BOK Financial’s banking subsidiary, BOKF, NA, is among the top 25 nationally chartered U.S.-based commercial banks based on assets as of June 30, 2016, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve.
BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) offers wealth management and trust services through various affiliate companies and non-bank subsidiaries including advisory services offered by BOKF, NA and its subsidiaries BOK Financial Asset Management, Inc. and Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc., each an SEC registered investment adviser. BOKF offers additional investment services and products through its subsidiary, BOK Financial Securities, a broker/dealer, member FINRA/SIPC, and an SEC registered investment adviser and The Milestone Group, also an SEC registered investment adviser.
Investments are not insured by the FDIC and are not guaranteed by BOKF, NA or any of its affiliates. Investments are subject to risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
All data presented is as of 3/31/2017, unless otherwise noted.
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