1. WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME
Michel Rixen
S2S SC meeting 8-9 Dec 2016
NYC, USA

2. WCRP’s mission….
... is to facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society.
The two overarching objectives of WCRP are:
to determine the predictability of climate
to determine the effect of human activities on climate

3. Big picture Restructuring of WMO Technical Commissions
Possible morphing of CAS into Research Commission
Possible restructuring of Research Dept
Possible common research strategy across WCRP, WWRP and GAW around big concrete challenges

4. Scope and tools Week Century Decade Season Observations Models
Reanalyses
Week
Century
Decade
Season

5. Focus Week Century Decade Season Melting Ice & Global Consequences
Regional Seal Level & Coastal Impacts
Weather & Climate Extremes
Clouds, Circulation & Climate Sensitivity
Water for Food Baskets
Near-Term Prediction (Decadal)
Carbon & Climate
Week
Century
Decade
Season

6. WCRP Structure Melting Ice & Global Consequences
CliC
CLIVAR
GEWEX
SPARC
CORDEX
Joint Scientific Committee
Joint Planning Staff
Modeling Advisory Council
Data Advisory Council
Working Groups on: Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), Seasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP), Coupled Modeling (WGCM), Regional Climate (WGRC)
Melting Ice & Global Consequences
Regional Seal Level & Coastal Impacts
Water for Food Baskets
Weather & Climate Extremes
Clouds, Circulation & Climate Sensitivity
Near-Term Prediction (Decadal)
Carbon & Climate

7. WCRP vision for a data infrastructure: Earth System Grid Federation
Observations+ε
Simulations +ε
Reanalyses

8. JSC37 Two new GCs endorsed: Carbon and NTCP/Decadal
The Young Earth System Scientists (YESS) network endorsed
Regional climate reorganization: An ad hoc working group of the JSC will recommend focus (including urban issues possibly) and partnerships
WCRP to support the research community on accessing the Lead Centre results
Plans for next 12 months: new strategy, renewed communication plan, newsletter and revamp of the web

9. WCRP Ahead document
Sponsor Review and strategic document currently under development
Opportunity to convey achievements and plans for S2S
Target date: JSC38 session, 3-5 April 2017

10. Some relevant events USA elections 8 November 2016…
WDAC6, March 2017, ESRIN/ESA, Italy
JSC38, 3-5 April 2017, Paris, France
WGNE Systematic Error Workshop, June 2017, Montreal, Canada
WCRP Earth System Model Evaluation workshop, 31 July – 4 Aug 2017, Aspen, USA
Joint WGs meeting, 9-13 Oct 2017, Exeter, UK (CORDEX, S2S, DCPP, DAOS, PDEF, …)
International Conference on Reanalysis, 9-13 Nov 2017, Rome, Italy …

11. Links to S2S and (some) notes from last 3 days
MAPP TF: great initiative, lots of process studies, causality chain and impact on predictability and skill, needs some EU equivalent
How to best connect basic research to operation (e.g. Malaquias’ comment)?
WGSIP: snow initialization, initial shocks and drifts, teleconnections
WGNE Systematic errors, Drag, Verification, Aerosols (?)
Need for Research-Operations virtuous cycle: open data policy (cf Copernicus), protocols, formats, standards, transition and feedback
Database of opportunity (S2S) vs common protocol (SubX)
Process-based metrics: JWGFVR, WGCM-WGNE Metrics panel
Evolution of S2S into a CMIP ambition (leverage the science community)?
Subseasonal Outlook? (cf GSCU, GDA2DO)
Data assimilation, ensemble generation, high resolution, coupling?

12. Last but not least
Many thanks to IRI and Columbia University for hosting us during the week!
Special thanks to Andy and colleagues!

13. WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME
Thank you for your attention!

14. WMAC5 Joint WCRP/WWRP model development prize
Next model development summer school at CPTEC in 2017, parameterisations in the grey-zone area
Joint modelling working group meeting at the Met Office in October 2017 to support a WCRP modelling strategy for the following ten years
Direct reporting to JSC recommended
Solicit input from modelling centres about their expectations from WCRP
Model improvement is central to GCs and core projects. Each one should provide a set of model development needs
Cross-WCRP (ambitious) initiative to improve model precipitation.

15. WDAC5 WCRP-wide data policy developed
Establishment of a WCRP-GCOS International Data Prize
Reanalysis Task Team to foster intercomparison of reanalyses
Flux Task Team: development of flux data sets to support the development of Earth System Models
obs4MIPs Task Team: publication of (gridded) observational sets on the ESGF following CMIP principals